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House Price Crash Forum

captainb

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Everything posted by captainb

  1. I get it. Only thing i struggle with is if its an inflationary environment with low borrowing rates, sane nominal price levels for any leveraged asset are incredibly high as your debt gets eaten away. Holding cash is insane in that environment. Again this is not a rush out an buy a new build flat now which would be madness. But i would challenge those waiting for historically large price falls on how likely they are to occur given the availability of credit. 40% fall would be ideal for me, but if we get to 10% i will take it and make my move.
  2. Sure but if as per this post you had it the deposit held in cash, that has been falling in real terms since 2007. This BTW is not a rush out and buy a flat in nine elms today.. madness. Just pointing out cash is useless (agree) therefore push into assets is not indicative of a crash in asset values
  3. Its all a bit weird. Here we are worried about inflation, cash is nonsense, looking to put it into something, anything asset based, ideally leveraged so inflation takes it away... And also say houses will crash 30/40/50/60% etc. Cant all be right. Full disclosure - i own a flat purchased in 2012, ideally would like prices to fall 40% to allow a decent trade up just cant see it happening.
  4. If we and all the media have all this time to discuss and debate this nonsense about one person losing their job. Frankly cant get excited either way.. Perhaps we have time to open up and save the jobs of millions.
  5. Given other coronavirus's like SARs we have been waiting what 15 years without a vaccine... Id say living with it is the only solution. Also unsure as to where the data the immunity lasts 6 months from infection has come from. Its far too early for anything other than guesswork
  6. Maybe but think how fantastic (or not) the lockdown has been in hot developing countires - India, Pakistan etc and yet relatively minimal deaths - or certainly not huge figures like you would expect
  7. What i 'love' about negative rates is the credit risk is the wrong way round. The bank shouldn't care who they lend to, the worse the customer the better.... The customer should credit check the bank.. The investment bank shouldn't be credit risking Germany say for bond repayment, the German central bank should be credit checking those that purchase the debt at auction can pay them the negative coupon.
  8. Not sure i agree. GP referrals to nearly all hospital services are down 75% or more in london. Are that many people really not getting early signs of potential cancer? or have they been petrified that CV19 is the only risk in town so not going to their GP etc?
  9. There is nothing i would like more than you to be correct. Fear i have this has all the hallmarks of a rushed, badly thought out scheme driven purely by tabloid media pressure with any objections brushed aside. They have tended to end very, very badly for the taxpayer. Getting large sums of cash out same day is utter madness. I cant believe the banks would do so unless they knew they would not be on the hook under any circumstances - hence 100% backed.
  10. Agreed i think that is what the comentators are missing.. Im alright jack with my millions i can sit here and play a % interest game over 25 years. Those without savings on furlough might have cashflow issues that are a little more meaningful Phil. Could also comment on the journalists, scientists and public sector employees only wanting to open when "100% safe", of course all totally safe in their own jobs ignoring the millions who work in the service industry etc.
  11. Chuck all the cash out the door first to anyone and everyone and then scramble to possibly, maybe get it back five years later. Good luck for people who have left the country etc Easy to spend other peoples money isnt it...
  12. The problem with using excess deaths is you are picking up both virus deaths and deaths caused by the lockdown. The number of people going to A and E for strokes and cardiac problems has halved. That doesnt seem reasonable. Care homes have also been reporting a large number of deaths without CV for weeks now.
  13. At some point the lockdown causes more deaths than the virus. London has probably been at that point for weeks. The current recovery plan for cancer treatments etc is 12/18 months. Wouldn't get cancer in the next year. Unfortunately 10,000s in london will and they can expect a long wait for a scan etc.
  14. You mean major building firms control prices? control supply as well through slow release? and do not compete on price in nearby developments?The shock ?
  15. They have also admitted that 1/6 in London have already had it if the serology is correct; and what 4k deaths in London? People realise this is luckily not the killer first feared - for those under 60 with no health conditions it is effectively flu. The risk of driving your car to said beach is a greater risk than catching CV19 when you are there for people under 60. People are inherently selfish once the cats out of the bag it doesnt affect them they dont bother.
  16. You do like talking nonsense. You have picked the lowest point on a 100 year graph. Yes its higher does not make it a "trend". The initial jump from 2015 was the 2016 brexit inflationary spike caused by sharp decline in value of GBP its been falling since then. Whether it goes up from now or not is arguable but its multiyear trend since Nov 2017 has been down not up.
  17. Quite but i wouldn't look here for a fair reflection of what people are willing to pay. People are and were paying those prices pre CV19 we think are ridiculous. Post CV19 a 5% discount might seem like a bargain to be snapped up.
  18. Friend who works for one of the major builders has already had his salary cut 30%. They are in this for the long(ish) hall
  19. You can get a single low point on a graph and infer from that? Given its the lowest point since records began on your logic interest rates have been falling since 1900. Genius. They went up from such historical low for 18 months to 2017 before falling back ever since. Very consistently quarter by quarter. To infer a trend of "rising steadily since 2016" is nonsense and you know it.
  20. BTL on a 'case by case basis' same as last time. Last time every case was accepted not sure if that will happen again. Argument being they cannot evict at the moment so need to be protected.
  21. Fire civil servants en mass? I can see how that will go down... minister hands draft paper to civil servant.. oh yes minister ill make sure this bill gets written up. All ministers head a department that is just civil servants. How many managers really cut their own staff? you want the other managers staff to be cut always
  22. Yawn. I may be clever (or not), and you may be right (or not) with that prediction. But don't make demonstratively false statements when the data is freely available. Makes the predictions however sensible (or not) seem irrelevant.
  23. Inflation has been falling since Nov 2017 from 2.8% to 1.7% in Feb 2020 pre-CV19. It has not been 'rising consistently since 2016' as you suggest and only 'abruptly stopped' with CV19.
  24. Started to rise from 2016 and now confirmed to rise for years? You mean it rose from 2016 from absurdly low levels to a heady high of 2.8% in 2017 and has been falling since. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23
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