Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

captainb

Members
  • Posts

    3,623
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by captainb

  1. 6 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

    No.

    Please read the top right-hand side of the attached table carefully.

    corona3.jpg

    Jeezo please at least try to read it..

    Take the under 18 line very obvious as only a small cohort have been vaccinated.

    Your rate  vaccinated is 276.5 rate not vaccinated 2,670.7 i.e 10x. So if you were correct and these are just rates in each cohort the vaccine would give 90% protection against infection, seems high. Particularly as kids who get the vaccine upto now have severe underlying conditions.

    However:

    Your not vaccinated population is 311,199, against a had at lease one dose of 33k or so, which brings it into line.

     

    You can see those rates change as the vacciantion % adjusts, it's clearly given per 100k of the general population. However you've ignored that as it doesn't suit what you are pushing.

    Btw if you want to push something anti Vax that table shows its of marginal benefit if at all to children but a lot of benefit for the over 60s... Not much of a conspiracy there though

     

     

     

  2. 4 hours ago, spyguy said:

    I keep saying this as it's a reality.

    I constantly hear of people struggling to get mortgages.

    Even with a 40% deposit the likes of HSBC, who offer the most consistent cheap deals, are very sniffy about who they lend to.

    Slight blot on your credit and its- No.

    Where are you? Middlesbrough? Im not sure id lend to people there...

     

    Across the whole country this year's mortgage lending has broken all records. It's not difficult to get a mortgag

     

  3. Just now, spyguy said:

    You have to be careful about headline rates

    Lenders only have very finite funds for super low offers.

    I'd live to see the banks list number of mortgages at what rate.

    You keep saying this, yet anyone who in the real world has got a mortgage knows you can and do get the headline rates.

    Yes, you need to add on the arrangement fee etc to get the real rate.. but the notion that you cannot get what's listed is utter nonsense.

    Some prats might revert to the SvR through lazyness and others might get stuck there through bad timed job loss, but for the vast majority you remortgage when the term expires. It's not a big deal. Took all of 2 hours last time.

     

     

     

  4. 3 hours ago, andrewwk said:

    i.e. it's not actually the level of interest that matters now, but the super huge amount of debt, which makes things very sensitive even to trivial-looking increments in interest rate

    On government debt yes you are right but repay residential mortgages are given on a stress tested with rates 3% above the lenders SVR, i.e at the moment about 6%. Which is a lot higher than anything listed in that article.

    If I remortgaged at 2% rather than 1%, my payments don't double.. vast majority of each monthly payment is capital. 

    So will rates doubling upto madness of 2% on a 5 year fix, be a drag on house prices, perhaps, all things being equal it should.. will it cause a collapse. Erm no. Dull I know.

     

  5. 2 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    Hina Bhudia, partner at mortgage broker Knight Frank Finance, told This is Money: “Two major lenders have just signalled they will be raising interest rates on low loan-to-value two year fixed rate products, which is a sure sign they believe a hike in the base rate is coming.

    “Brokers are now frantically trying to lock these deals in before the deadline, because if the major lenders are taking this approach, others won't be far behind.”

    https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/hsbc-and-natwest-poised-to-increase-mortgage-rates-from-record-lows/

    Hike to what? The link says they are a shocking 0.89% at the moment, which if consistent over a mortgage term makes property, even central London madness ridiculously cheap at the moment. 

    Of course people don't expect that rate to last forever, but what's this hike, to crazy heights of 1.5%? Or less than that..

  6. 3 hours ago, vadst43 said:

    Admittedly the article could have been framed in terms of deaths of younger males. It's an important discussion and does raise the role of vaccines.

    Issue is the author realises number of deaths in those categories is miniscule compared to population size. Ludicrously so. 4k out of 750m people.

    If the assertion is vaccines which majority of population now have cause X would you not expect a sizeable or statistically significant impact?....

    When it doesn't exist they default to linking to the whole population causally forgetting that the over 60s are 99% of the their reference data...

  7. 9 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

    Too many people are dying and it’s starting to worry the demographers
    https://www.rintrah.nl/too-many-people-are-dying-and-its-starting-to-worry-the-demographers/

    Long article, but worth reading in full, as the author also addresses other questions of what the Spike protein might be doing in your body, other than "protecting you against covid".

    What amazes with nonsense like this is people never even bother to look at the source data random internet person is referring to...even if they give it.

    Here it is:

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

     

    You'll note:.

    -2021 excess mortality driven by Jan to march i.e covid pre vaccine.

    - yes 14 to 44 is above baseline..but look at the bloomin scale on that graph. It caps out a 4k deaths across 29 counties (EU plus UK).

    -now look at the scale of deaths over 65, it's 350k.

     

    I.e a movement up or down of 1% in the 65 plus deaths gets rid of the whole 14 to 44 year old deaths ...

     

    So no. It's not young people driving excess mortality, utter BS.

  8. 30 minutes ago, Jolly Roger said:

    Two blogs I've come across since the petrol shortage, the first in a thread here, second linked in the first, both from chaps called Tim.

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk

    Both of the opinion that the economy is driven by availability and net cost of energy, and that without the density of hydrocarbons (getting more expensive to extract) or next gen nuclear (hydrogen takes a lot of energy to harvest) we will be entering sustained phase of degrowth with all the misery that entails.

    Why are hydrocarbons difficult to extract?

    Environmentally unviable perhaps but at 80USD a barrel tar sands are just about economical and there's enough there for 100s of years. Calling BS on the notion that if you can accept the environmental consequences hydrocarbons are expensive, they are not.

  9. 13 hours ago, kzb said:

    What supply issue? 

    This is the very question I am asking.  There can't be a genuine demand exceeding supply issue given that it was still summer.  So why has the price gone stratospheric?

    Gas used in heating is a relatively small amount of the total.

    Majority of uk gas consumption is used to make electricity. In 2019 for example 40% of electricity generation was from gas.

    Now renewables have increased overall, gas spike demands are more common as.. when the wind dies down like it has recently, you fire up the gas turbines to keep the lights on. 

    Hence winter, summer demand is not as obvious as first thought.

    Also makes the government we need more renewables to counter this slightly bizaree. You have to answer the question what happens when the wind doesn't blow better.. building more wind turbines is unfortunately irrelevant in that equation.

  10. 4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    Posting the same nonsense repeatedly doesn’t make it true.

    Hyperinflation is inflation of 25%+ and we are not going to see that.

    Why not? Because - as everyone is trying to tell you - it doesn’t help anyone, so it’s clearly not going to be in anyone’s plans.

    Phrases like “the genie is out of the bottle” would be appropriate if right now inflation was in double digits - but it isn’t.  If the official CPI hits 20%pa then I will entertain talk of a possible small risk of hyperinflation. 

    Exactly..so much nonsense posted on this subject which sadly some poor sod might listen to.

    Certain people gleefully posting that buying old coins to barter for goats with was the way forward a year ago. Insane nonsense.

  11. 14 hours ago, yelims said:

    Maybe 5 years ago, but a lot of that was long nipped in bud, now it’s a refuge for companies fleeing Brexit and the only English speaking common law country with stable politics bridge into EU, with an oversized physical goods export sector (example almost as much exports to China as uk but 13.5x less population)

    That's not actually true or relevant.

    The point was and remains Irish like all gdp per country includes the economic activity of companies based there. Just like Luxembourg there's a host of company shells that nominally conduct all their EU buisness out of Ireland (Google) or Luxembourg (Amazon) but that isn't anything to do with the productivity or not of Irish citizens.

    Getting back to your debt point. If you remove the US multinationals from the GDP figure, to make it comparable, Irish debt as a % goes from 69% to well over 100%.

    Irish times article pointing out the folly of blindly using an Irish  GDP figure as you did -

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800

  12. 3 hours ago, rollover said:

    One of the people we’ve been hearing about is the King of Jordan, who secretly spent more than £70m ($100m) on a string of properties in the UK and US.

    Jordan isn’t a wealthy country and receives international aid. The British government is one of its biggest financial backers and is giving £650m over five years.

    BBC

    Out of interest how much of other people's cash do the UK royals have stashed away?

    Old queeny was mentioned in the panama papers no less.

     

  13. 1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

    These days it comes down to what's behind pay walls and what isn't. However, if you would care to dismiss the specific claims about what is in the textbooks, be my guest. 

    CRT in its original form is merely taking into account US history and the power dynamics that produces in interactions between races, in whether something is racist or not racist. Which does make sense.

    However, it's developed into the notion that "you cannot be racist against white people", which is commonly taught and an extension of.. the system in place was produced by white people therefore you cannot be racist against those that produced the system as system production is a prerequisite to racism.

    lazily characterised by the extreme left as "you can't punch up".

    Lots wrong with that obviously. But best characterised by the corbynistas screaming white privilege from their Bristol university halls to people on a council estate in Middlesbrough and wondering why that destroys the Labour party vote in those areas.

    Racism by white people is sadly a lot more common (in the UK, not say Japan) but it is possible for the reversal to happen

  14. 5 hours ago, rollover said:

    Boris Johnson has refused to rule out raising taxes again, three weeks before the chancellor announces the Budget.

    Speaking on the first day of his party's conference in Manchester, the prime minister said he was a "zealous opponent of unnecessary tax rises".

    But he told the BBC's Andrew Marr that the pandemic had hit the UK's economy like a "fiscal meteorite".

    It comes amid concerns over the cost of living, with rising energy and food prices, and shortages of fuel.

    BBC

    Never know might increase property income tax...

  15. 2 minutes ago, yelims said:

    Lockdown was stricter in Ireland and longer with much higher support provided per capita

    Yet no talk of tax rises instead tax bonuses for frontline workers and extra bank holiday for all being discussed in coming weeks budget.

    Tho I see debt to gdp is much higher 106% vs 59%
    I guess that’s another positive of the euro and learnings post 2008, the governments couldn’t go wild like they done in past 

    Irish gdp is nonsensical as it includes all the shoving all EU revenue though Irish tax shell, same as Luxembourg.

  16. 1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

    CRT wasn't taught in schools anyway, but it became a dog whistle for the alt-right. Those who get wound up about it might as well start each sentence with, "I'm not racist but..."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/aug/12/right-wing-textbooks-teach-slavery-black-immigration

    'The term “critical race theory”, an academic discipline that examines the ways in which racism operates in US laws and society, has also become a catchall bogeyman term for wokeness run amok, even though experts say they believe the theory is actually used in relatively few classrooms around the country.'

    I'm not sure id quote the guardian on CRT anymore than id quote the daily mail on dingys crossing the channel...

  17. 18 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

    The Premiership footballers story (if true) is very, very interesting.

    Whilst (some) footballers may not be the brightest, their agents are and their clubs are multi-billion pound businesses who know exactly what they are doing.

    My guess is that a large number of them have had COVID, (It is certanly the case that some have) and all have been fine. Given that they are all young and very fit we would expect this of course.

    I suspect therefore that the changing room concensus is that anyone catching it will be fine and have natural immunity, whilst they are all aware that vaccine carries a small degree of risk. Indeed, if I were a pro-athlete (never going to happen) I wouldn't be taking any vaccines if they were of no benefit to me.

    Just my thoughts, I may be completely off the mark.

    Seems very unlikely to be true. Given:

    -individual clubs have come out and said their teams have been 99% (Liverpool) or 100% vaccinated (wolves etc). To balance would need some clubs with 0% or 1%, which seems very unlikely.

    -its a requirement for them to go and play in Europe (7 prem teams) or internationals outside the UK (40% plus of prem players are internationals). Between them it's more than 70% are one or other.

    -they are all tested before games and any players or staff who test positive can't play for 2 weeks. It hasnt been happening nearly as much this season post vaccination.. maybe I don't know 70% reduction

    -reference on an undated letter to two weeks after 2nd dose which drove headline. 1st dose figures much higher which suggests could be a timing issue given a lot of players are 16 to 23.

     

     

    i'd fully expect some players to be vaccine hesitant, slightly lower than the 20-30 age group, which is an issue in this case between them and their employer. Which is reality given the requirements for regular travel with that job.

  18. 9 hours ago, Kosmin said:

    I didn't think it was that bad. I thought exceeding the lifetime allowance lead to a tax of 55% above this threshold. Am I mistaken, or is "literally paying to go to work" hyperbole?

    Of course avoids the elephant in the room...

    Why so many public servants are having taxpayer funded pension pots of £1m plus....

    In the 1997 to 2008 years was all about equalising pay with the private sector.. of course this was done on gross salary, carefully ignoring that your GP getting 200k per year now had an effective employers pension contribution of 30% or something equally mad.

     

    I'll just leave this here.. scroll down to see the Ers contribution.. https://www.civilservicepensionscheme.org.uk/members/contribution-rates/

  19. Furlough has been nonsense for months.

    The state paying people to keep jobs that don't exist while employers are desperate for employees to fill jobs that do exist.

    Utter nonsense, even if it is harsh on pilots etc to realise that their role for the next couple of years sadly doesn't exist.

     

    Still though we will only all end up paying for it. 

  20. 10 minutes ago, slawek said:

    This proves you have no idea what IR35 is about. An umbrella company is used only when you are "inside IR35", you are a deemed employee.

    That IR35 reform was about shifting liability for taxes from contractors to companies buying services from them if they classify contractors wrongly as "outside IR35", not employees. The companies can still treat contractors as before but many just don't want to take the risk as the rules are not clear what outside/inside IR35 means. Those companies mostly compensated contracts by increasing their rates. 

    Not sure that's the case.. well certainly hasn't been in financial services anyway. Some IT contractors who work on legacy systems have managed to get the upflift, as would be a nightmare to replace,  but most haven't.

    Standard to say all contracts inside IR35 as finance slash risk slash compliance department doesn't want the hassle of taking a view.

     

  21. 1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:

    Keep it together.

    I have never witnessed so much fear from a poster.

    There are a lot of bearish views of the housing market on this site (House price crash.com gives it away)

    There are other sites who are the polar opposite with some as, or nearly as, bullish as you.

    The truth is we are in an extremely dangerous time economically. Interest rates will rise next year, that is a given, and will continue to do so for at least several years. It may be unfair but this is the way it has always been. All you can do is prepare the best way you know how. But stop fretting, whatever will be will be.

    If I had a pound for every time that's been said since 2010...

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.