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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by captainb

  1. Jeezo please at least try to read it.. Take the under 18 line very obvious as only a small cohort have been vaccinated. Your rate vaccinated is 276.5 rate not vaccinated 2,670.7 i.e 10x. So if you were correct and these are just rates in each cohort the vaccine would give 90% protection against infection, seems high. Particularly as kids who get the vaccine upto now have severe underlying conditions. However: Your not vaccinated population is 311,199, against a had at lease one dose of 33k or so, which brings it into line. You can see those rates change as the vacciantion % adjusts, it's clearly given per 100k of the general population. However you've ignored that as it doesn't suit what you are pushing. Btw if you want to push something anti Vax that table shows its of marginal benefit if at all to children but a lot of benefit for the over 60s... Not much of a conspiracy there though
  2. Where are you? Middlesbrough? Im not sure id lend to people there... Across the whole country this year's mortgage lending has broken all records. It's not difficult to get a mortgag
  3. You keep saying this, yet anyone who in the real world has got a mortgage knows you can and do get the headline rates. Yes, you need to add on the arrangement fee etc to get the real rate.. but the notion that you cannot get what's listed is utter nonsense. Some prats might revert to the SvR through lazyness and others might get stuck there through bad timed job loss, but for the vast majority you remortgage when the term expires. It's not a big deal. Took all of 2 hours last time.
  4. On government debt yes you are right but repay residential mortgages are given on a stress tested with rates 3% above the lenders SVR, i.e at the moment about 6%. Which is a lot higher than anything listed in that article. If I remortgaged at 2% rather than 1%, my payments don't double.. vast majority of each monthly payment is capital. So will rates doubling upto madness of 2% on a 5 year fix, be a drag on house prices, perhaps, all things being equal it should.. will it cause a collapse. Erm no. Dull I know.
  5. Hike to what? The link says they are a shocking 0.89% at the moment, which if consistent over a mortgage term makes property, even central London madness ridiculously cheap at the moment. Of course people don't expect that rate to last forever, but what's this hike, to crazy heights of 1.5%? Or less than that..
  6. Issue is the author realises number of deaths in those categories is miniscule compared to population size. Ludicrously so. 4k out of 750m people. If the assertion is vaccines which majority of population now have cause X would you not expect a sizeable or statistically significant impact?.... When it doesn't exist they default to linking to the whole population causally forgetting that the over 60s are 99% of the their reference data...
  7. Everything if your looking at an overall excess mortality.. they make up 99% of the figure you are looking at...
  8. What amazes with nonsense like this is people never even bother to look at the source data random internet person is referring to...even if they give it. Here it is: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality You'll note:. -2021 excess mortality driven by Jan to march i.e covid pre vaccine. - yes 14 to 44 is above baseline..but look at the bloomin scale on that graph. It caps out a 4k deaths across 29 counties (EU plus UK). -now look at the scale of deaths over 65, it's 350k. I.e a movement up or down of 1% in the 65 plus deaths gets rid of the whole 14 to 44 year old deaths ... So no. It's not young people driving excess mortality, utter BS.
  9. Why are hydrocarbons difficult to extract? Environmentally unviable perhaps but at 80USD a barrel tar sands are just about economical and there's enough there for 100s of years. Calling BS on the notion that if you can accept the environmental consequences hydrocarbons are expensive, they are not.
  10. Yep or nuclear back up. Tech needs to be invented* first for storage. *At a cost that's commercially scalable
  11. Gas used in heating is a relatively small amount of the total. Majority of uk gas consumption is used to make electricity. In 2019 for example 40% of electricity generation was from gas. Now renewables have increased overall, gas spike demands are more common as.. when the wind dies down like it has recently, you fire up the gas turbines to keep the lights on. Hence winter, summer demand is not as obvious as first thought. Also makes the government we need more renewables to counter this slightly bizaree. You have to answer the question what happens when the wind doesn't blow better.. building more wind turbines is unfortunately irrelevant in that equation.
  12. Exactly..so much nonsense posted on this subject which sadly some poor sod might listen to. Certain people gleefully posting that buying old coins to barter for goats with was the way forward a year ago. Insane nonsense.
  13. So 95% mortgage all round. Prices will increase if that comes to pass. What you want to happen and what will happen sadly often arnt the same.
  14. That's not actually true or relevant. The point was and remains Irish like all gdp per country includes the economic activity of companies based there. Just like Luxembourg there's a host of company shells that nominally conduct all their EU buisness out of Ireland (Google) or Luxembourg (Amazon) but that isn't anything to do with the productivity or not of Irish citizens. Getting back to your debt point. If you remove the US multinationals from the GDP figure, to make it comparable, Irish debt as a % goes from 69% to well over 100%. Irish times article pointing out the folly of blindly using an Irish GDP figure as you did - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800
  15. Out of interest how much of other people's cash do the UK royals have stashed away? Old queeny was mentioned in the panama papers no less.
  16. CRT in its original form is merely taking into account US history and the power dynamics that produces in interactions between races, in whether something is racist or not racist. Which does make sense. However, it's developed into the notion that "you cannot be racist against white people", which is commonly taught and an extension of.. the system in place was produced by white people therefore you cannot be racist against those that produced the system as system production is a prerequisite to racism. lazily characterised by the extreme left as "you can't punch up". Lots wrong with that obviously. But best characterised by the corbynistas screaming white privilege from their Bristol university halls to people on a council estate in Middlesbrough and wondering why that destroys the Labour party vote in those areas. Racism by white people is sadly a lot more common (in the UK, not say Japan) but it is possible for the reversal to happen
  17. Irish gdp is nonsensical as it includes all the shoving all EU revenue though Irish tax shell, same as Luxembourg.
  18. I'm not sure id quote the guardian on CRT anymore than id quote the daily mail on dingys crossing the channel...
  19. Seems very unlikely to be true. Given: -individual clubs have come out and said their teams have been 99% (Liverpool) or 100% vaccinated (wolves etc). To balance would need some clubs with 0% or 1%, which seems very unlikely. -its a requirement for them to go and play in Europe (7 prem teams) or internationals outside the UK (40% plus of prem players are internationals). Between them it's more than 70% are one or other. -they are all tested before games and any players or staff who test positive can't play for 2 weeks. It hasnt been happening nearly as much this season post vaccination.. maybe I don't know 70% reduction -reference on an undated letter to two weeks after 2nd dose which drove headline. 1st dose figures much higher which suggests could be a timing issue given a lot of players are 16 to 23. i'd fully expect some players to be vaccine hesitant, slightly lower than the 20-30 age group, which is an issue in this case between them and their employer. Which is reality given the requirements for regular travel with that job.
  20. Of course avoids the elephant in the room... Why so many public servants are having taxpayer funded pension pots of £1m plus.... In the 1997 to 2008 years was all about equalising pay with the private sector.. of course this was done on gross salary, carefully ignoring that your GP getting 200k per year now had an effective employers pension contribution of 30% or something equally mad. I'll just leave this here.. scroll down to see the Ers contribution.. https://www.civilservicepensionscheme.org.uk/members/contribution-rates/
  21. Furlough has been nonsense for months. The state paying people to keep jobs that don't exist while employers are desperate for employees to fill jobs that do exist. Utter nonsense, even if it is harsh on pilots etc to realise that their role for the next couple of years sadly doesn't exist. Still though we will only all end up paying for it.
  22. Not sure that's the case.. well certainly hasn't been in financial services anyway. Some IT contractors who work on legacy systems have managed to get the upflift, as would be a nightmare to replace, but most haven't. Standard to say all contracts inside IR35 as finance slash risk slash compliance department doesn't want the hassle of taking a view.
  23. If I had a pound for every time that's been said since 2010...
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