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AndyRB5

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  1. It is a weekend; pretty nice weather throughout the country (Sunday); most of the social restrictions related to COVID-19 now lifted, and yet someone has the inclination and time to post something like this? I don’t doubt the truth of what is being said, but I do despair of the sentiment and the pleasure and glee with which it seems to be made. Decent housing is a basic human right, and celebrating in ever increasing prices that puts this out of reach for many is so depressing and sad.
  2. I think this is true, but what’s the best thing to do for idiots like me that have a decent amount of savings in cash, but renting? The ‘froth’ may come off, but prices will still be some 10% to 15% higher than they were a year ago. I really thought the pandemic / associated economic challenges would at the very worst mean that house prices at best would flatline. How wrong could I be. I’m fed up renting and where I live, but am getting perilously close to being priced out of being able to buy. I’ve always tried to save and live a frugal life, but now think I need to try and borrow as much as I can and jump in before prices just rise inexorably. Fear of missing out.... Is this the psychological outlook that is at play at the moment? Stick or twist? I hate the fact that I’m even thinking like this.
  3. House prices based on Zoopla!!! They are asking prices. I’m not sure there is any vested interest there at all.... The pleasure being taken by some of the posters here about rising prices is pretty sickening. Well done. You have won at life and it is clear you don’t care at what cost and misery this brings. Those now unable to afford a half decent house, simply to live in, are clearly the losers.
  4. This is potentially worrying news for anyone hoping house prices might actually fall. Bojo is going to announce this to a great fanfair no doubt at this week’s Tory virtual party conference. The articles I have read said that he has asked ministers to look at this and develop the relevant detail to actually implement this. It is not ready yet and is an idea. When could it conceivably become real policy and implemented do people think? Weeks, months, years?
  5. The April ONS stats were actually published last Weds. The article quoted in the estate agency news update by the OP was published last week. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/april2020 House prices actually fell!!!! In terms of the transactions this report relates to, it is important to note that they relate to before CV-19: The UK House Price Index (HPI) is based on completed housing transactions; typically, a house purchase can take six to eight weeks to reach completion, therefore, the price data feeding into the April 2020 UK HPI will reflect those agreements that occurred before the government measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) took hold. As a consequence, transaction volumes were not materially affected: The number of transactions used for the April 2020 index is slightly lower than the average number of transactions we would usually use for a first estimate; Future publications will reflect the impact of CV-19 and are likely to show reduced transaction volumes.
  6. Sorry, the point about April is wrong. Transactions were not materially lower than previous months: The number of transactions used for the April 2020 index is slightly lower than the average number of transactions we would usually use for a first estimate The ONS stats are based on completed transactions in the month: The UK House Price Index (HPI) is based on completed housing transactions. Typically, a house purchase can take six to eight weeks to reach completion. Therefore, the price data feeding into the April 2020 UK HPI will reflect those agreements that occurred before the government measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) took hold. I share your view that I don’t think we will see massive falls in prices, especially with the SDLT prop, but I do think the trend will be downwards....
  7. My sense is that the current 'demand' is being used as a justification and explanation for prices to be maintained. However, the point is that this demand is not sustainable, represents catch up and is essentially artificial. As you say transaction levels were already low, and with Winter approaching (both literally, and metaphorically in terms of the economy) I think sentiment about the housing market will be very different, with limited entrants to the market (especially if they do not think they can transact in time to secure the cuts to SDLT). This is most likely to have a downward pressure on prices. We simply do not have any current reliable price information to tell us what is happening to prices. The ONS though are beginning to release monthly statistics again and interesting their latest release showed that prices fell in April, perhaps suggesting that the Boris bounce was not as marked as thought. See the linked article below. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8644293/MARKET-REPORT-Builders-clobbered-500m-house-prices-disappoint.html
  8. Rather than a point about house prices per se, I was attempting to highlight and explain why so many (unsurprisingly the vested interests in the main) are talking of a mini boom. The reality is that transactions have suffered a seismic hit. People still want to move (for the various reasons Si has outlined) and it is not unreasonable to say that we should see this lost demand return. As the ‘backlog’ is returning it is creating this notion and sentiment of a flourishing market which is in turn is being used a justification for propping prices. However the current stats show transactions have a long way to go to show the level of recovery some would like you to believe is occurring...
  9. I don't doubt that it 'feels' like a mini-boom at the moment in the housing market presently, but it is worth reflecting on the monumental reduction in overall housing transactions that has occurred in the past six months. Acadata, using ONS statistics, state that: Over the past 5 years, Jan-Jun transaction figures have ranged from min 375,823 (2019) to max 448,068 (2016). This year that equivalent figure is 229,793 so far. So even on a best case scenario, that is around 150,000 'lost' purchases. It is unsurprising that with some of that demand now being released in July and August it is going to feel like an absolute 'sugar rush'. However, even the July figures (recognising that these are estimated and are likely to be revised upwards) certainly show an uptick relative to previous months but are still markedly down on the equivalent month in 2019. The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential property transactions in July 2020 is 70,710, 27.4% lower than July 2019 and 14.5% higher than June 2020. See the HM Revenue July report where these statistics are detailed: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/910642/MPT_Com_Aug_20__cir_.pdf
  10. I'm comfortable with the decision I've made. My view is that the bubble you describe is going to burst or at least deflate somewhat, you clearly have a different view. If I'm wrong, I fully understand that will be another 6 to 12 mths of rental costs and potential house price growth. I will then, with much sadness, concede defeat and look to buy. However, we are entering such unprecedented times economically and socially, if I've ever had doubts about the robustness of housing as an asset that will always rise in value, now is that time. I never really believed that dropping out of the EU would have a massive impact on house prices (more political scare tactics to try and influence the vote). Millions unemployed though, which is unfortunately soon to become a reality, and the squeeze on lending for FTBs etc may be another matter.
  11. It seems that there is a lot of property 'boosterism' being promoted on social media and even seeping onto this forum. I'm in a very similar place to the Op. Now in my Forties, renting and painfully aware if I had bought a house years ago when I had the chance I would have saved alot of money. I fully understand the pressure and desire to buy your own home and not simply funding landlords. However, unless you can get a decent discount on a house now I'd be particularly nervous and cautious and buying in the current climate. If you've waited this long, you can surely wait a few more months to see what the impact of a worldwide recession is going to be? At the very worse, prices may creep up a bit. At best, you will be looking at a very different market and have saved yourself an amount much greater than SDLT for example. I'm sure the property market in some places is 'booming' but this is relative (the market was effectively shut for a couple of months so it was always going to feel 'hot' when it reopened) and I'd suggest not sustainable. There is a massive attempt (understandably) by the vested interests to create and reinforce the sentiment that the housing market will flourish and escape the downturn of the wider economy, but the actions of lenders and how they are tightening up borrowing conditions (LTV and BOMAD etc) tells you something quite different. It's a personal choice. I'm prepared to sit on the fence and watch the market for a little while longer and see how it all plays out.
  12. I think this is a really good point. Apart from the vested interests, and those that clearly don't care a jot about the well being of their fellow man, the pain and misery that massively overblown house prices cause is becoming more recognised than just this slightly niche forum. I have the misfortune of occasionally seeing the social media outputs of estate agents, BTL and mortgage brokers along with some of the posters here (check when many of them joined this site by the way - that is quite telling). The absolute glee that they take rejoicing at the altar of ever increasing prices is frankly revolting. I know this site can border on 'hive mind', but it really has nothing on this group. There are daily updates and comments on how the housing market is: rising prices is 'propping up the economy'; prices can and will never fall, enquiries and sales have never been so good etc. Many have clearly been to the Trump school of self promotion. Whilst some of this may well be true, what I find quite interesting is that a couple of weeks ago these were the same people pleading for SDLT relief etc, and more and more government props, for an industry that is apparently impervious to the vagaries of an economic recession the like of which the world has not seen in recent history. What is objectionable too, is that rising prices per se are presented as the stimulus for the rest of economy, when arguably it is the actual sales transactions. People talk about the feel good factor of rising prices, but fundamentally conveyancing, estates agents incomes (yes they get a smaller % if prices fall but they still earn a commission), removals, home improvements and spend are more dependent on people actually moving house and not the price.... Personally, I don't actually doubt that the market is strong at the moment. I know a couple of friends and work colleagues that are attempting to move (second steppers) and they describe quite a frantic market. Interestingly, most of the interest for their homes seems to be BTLs so the recent SDLT changes seem to worked its magic for the government and squeezed FTBs even more. However, the comments on the BBC website and what is coming down the tracks economically give me some hope that we may see sanity restored and prices going into reverse. If we don't, and I know that government will be working hard to prevent this so it is possible we won't, then I'll take some comfort (albeit small) that those celebrating this although probably much richer; aren't really the kind of people I ever want to know in my life, or listen to their greedy logic (though I cannot really avoid that). Rant over!!!!!
  13. July's Rightmove price index and report is published at midnight (Monday 20th July). I've already seen a number of tweets from VIs trailing the fact that it is 'good news' for the property market. It is perhaps unsurprising if it shows a significant uptick in asking prices: -all that underlying pent up demand, and a corresponding lack of supply. -the recent Stamp duty changes. These are simply leading to sellers attempting to charge even more, and buyers not actually benefiting from this despite what the government and MSM would like you to believe. Clearly the property industry are going to attempt to make significant capital from this news. The question is will the MSM follow, and how will wider public sentiment be affected? I have been some what disheartened by comments from work colleagues since the recent SDLT revisions telling me what a great time it is for me to buy and that I have to act before March 31st 2021. These are pretty switched on people and are aghast when I tell them that I am now probably worse off then before these announcements... The fact that we are in and entering the worst worldwide economic downturn seems to not yet have resonated with a lot of my peers (I guess if you are not furloughed, or worse sadly, then not so much has tangibly changed yet - it is happening to 'other' people). Maybe the housing market is impervious to this, but I can't help thinking this is the calm (or estate agent / VI pumped golden period) before the ultimate shitstorm.
  14. I'm a long time 'lurker' on this site, but this is my first post. Cards on the table, I'd love to see a significant reduction in current house prices. I'll openly admit I've made a number of poor life decisions, one of which has been to not buy a house earlier in my life, but renting instead. Despite my best efforts to save, as each year has gone by, getting on the housing ladder has a more and more distant objective. For the first time though, I am pretty clear about the area I want to live in relative to where I work (Suffolk). Perhaps naively, faced with the greatest economic downturn in the economy in a generation and with nearly all housing commentators seemingly almost without exception predicting falls in house prices (even those affiliated with Estate Agents and other VIs), I assumed that I might see at least some reductions in current prices. However, the latest data out of the US and anecdotal information from the UK has me worried. It does indeed seem that sale volumes are rebounding at a pretty astounding rate: https://www.cityam.com/us-pending-home-sales-post-record-jump-in-may/ The signs (commentators such as Henry Pryor, Estates Agents - I know!!!!!, other members of this site) are also suggesting that June's housing activity in the UK is also remarkably bullish. What I don't understand is what is driving and motivating these sales? If I hear the phrase 'pent up demand' one more time I might pop myself!!!! Surely, the rational logical thing to do, faced with a mountain of evidence that the economy / restricted capital availability is going to put significant downward pressure on prices would be pause and see what unravels, possibly saving a fair bit of money in the process? Are people panic buying? Is the housing market, both here in the UK and across the shore that irrational? I suspect the answer is yes. Will this new surge of demand be maintained? Thanks for reading.
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