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House Price Crash Forum

Pmax2020

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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. Excellent news. In Scotland our sold prices appear on rightmove about 6-8 weeks later so these next few months are very critical. I won’t lie, I’ve seen some depressingly strong sold prices these last 18 months but I do feel the market is show signs of running out of steam. Ie. The odd house selling below it’s home report valuation or those that sell without finishing strongly via a prompt closing date. We viewed a big project of a house in Perth & Kinross last week. When we phoned up there was only 1 note of interest and no closing date planned. This was after a couple of weeks of being on the market. I really feel 6 months ago that would never of sat that long. It’s sold price will be very interesting.
  2. It’ll take as long as it takes for young people to really start asking pertinent questions like ‘what is/was triple lock?’ and ‘why on earth is my retirement are 70?’. And ‘Why did the government print a trillion pounds when everyone knows it leads to inflation? Why did they offer props to the housing market when it only resulted in record breaking rises? I don’t see how we look back on this government in years to come and not find it staggering how badly they managed our economy. Hopefully it’ll just be a generational thing. A lot of ageing boomers looking out for number 1 as they near retirement. I think there’s too much inequality between young and old people for the next generation of workers, retirees, economists, mps etc to not seriously question the state of our economy and standard of living.
  3. This is broadly my take on housing too, but the million dollar question is would Boris let that happen? The ONS are manipulating the CPI. Meanwhile the Bank of England continue with QE when all it does is fuel inflation. We have a government that would rather pay people to sit in the house right now, than backfill hundreds of thousands jobs in manufacturing, food production, logistics etc. The Tories will not let prices fall. If the market starts to wobble they’ll probably intervene and guarantee low rates or create flexible mortgages. I could honestly see some bizarre 0% mortgage schemes for FTBs or young families. I wouldn’t put it past them.
  4. I agree. The handful of people I know that moved openly admitted to paying more than they felt the place was worth because if they didn’t, they feared it would be weeks before another came up. Such increases where supply is limited can only be magnified when dealing with property because timing is crucial and you can’t simply list and sell without feeling pressured into buying quickly. Especially if you have a family to house. I think one either of two things will happen… 1) Rates will go up and prices will fall. 2) Rates with will go down and prices will rise. Either way I think housing is going to be expensive for generations to come…
  5. What could be the criticism here? New builds and extensions have had robust requirements on smoke alarms for years. It makes sense to apply the same standards to existing houses surely?!
  6. I actually only learned of this yesterday. I hadn’t received any letters or noticed any advertisements etc. It was a friend that told me. The costs are minimal though - you can get battery operated smoke alarms that can communicate with one another for as little as £10-15. The requirements are not driven by the number of bedrooms, but rather kitchens, ‘main’ rooms you socialise in, rooms with fires, and/or top/bottom of stairs. So it’s a little subjective but most houses will just need 2 - 5 alarms which could be as little as £20 - 50.
  7. During the HPC pandemic rollercoaster I’ve argued all these points myself. I just hope inflation however is going to save us. It’s out of control.
  8. I think they’ll fall because the rises are entirely due to a decade of rock bottom mortgage rates. The BoE raised the base rate but then covid came along and they slashed it. I think inflation will dictate that it rises again and further. Homeowners will not get these same ultra low 2-5 year rates next time around. I couldn’t dream of buying a 350k house 5 years ago but at today’s rates it’s comfortably affordable. Hence houses became dearer. The main reason I will think there will be a fall of 20% (or 10-15% down on 2019) is because housing is fundamentally unaffordable in most places. My wife and I have pretty good jobs and we make good financial decisions, but we still can’t afford something toward the higher end of the market. I look around at friends and colleagues and scratch my head at who amongst us can afford that nice house I saw online the other day. None of us can!! The couples I know that snapped up some pricy places whilst paying the covid premium are all exposed. Many admit they are worried about borrowing too much. That doesn’t bode well when they’ve borrowed at an incredibly low rate.
  9. I know it’s all just classic HPC optimism but 7 of the 32 ‘listed within last 24 hours’ properties in my search area are reductions. That’s declared reductions too. I bet some of the other ‘new’ listings are also reduced/relisted places. Honeslty… this is it guys!!!! This is it!!!! The muppet millennial middle movers have done us all a favour with this boom daft covid boom. They’ve inflated prices to oblivion!!!
  10. The fact that transactions are down 60-70% has a huge impact on prices. Most agents I’ve chatted to have spoken of buyers out-numbering sellers greatly. “Everyone wants to buy but they aren’t listing their own house first”. It stands to reason that prices will rise as people take a punt on a property, knowing they’ll have to make their offer more appealing as they are not on the market themselves. I honestly believe we’ve just observed a generation of middle-movers buy/sell that are ‘cashing in’ the profits on their first couple of houses. These people know they are paying a premium at a precarious time. We’re just seeing cash associates with historic rises in prices change hands. Every daft price I see puts a smile on my face because it’s completely unsustainable. There will be a crash. It’s going to be a very interesting 3-4 months now.
  11. A sought after house near me appeared online at exactly the same price it sold for 3 years ago. Sure it’s just one example, but it’s in a premium street where they are seldom sold. I really hope the handful of hints of the tide turning near me come to fruition. If the BoE would only just raise the base rate marginally i think a lot of people would start to panic.
  12. We we weathered the ‘Scotland’s covid positivity soaring’ propaganda storm, so now the BBC focus on a new line on of enquiry… https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58387017 97% of electricity used last year was derived from renewable resources. Tough crowd.
  13. Er… that’s nothing new nor anything to do with boosting the economy. It’s about suppressing a pro-independence movement that’s gathering momentum. No one in my local B&Q is even Scottish… it’s quite clear what’s happening!!
  14. Companies are just rinsing every last penny out of it. I saw Tui say they planned to bring all staff back when furlough ends. Er… why wait any other couple of weeks?!?! Why should we subsidise them any longer? Its not real money anymore. There’s no morality to it. Just take as much as you can.
  15. I’m kinda the same in terms of thinking ahead to my next fix which is mid-2022. I’m certain I will go for a 5 year deal as I’m within 60% LTV in this place. On borrowing of 200k though, the difference between 1% and 0.5% over a 5 year term isn’t even £100 a month. Every little helps of course but rates are so low these days that I don’t see further cuts as much of a game changer. To me it’s more about planning for the future. We hope to upsize (I know I keep saying that!), so my only concern is what rates are likely to be in 2027 or so when our new houses 5 year deal is coming to an end. I mean does anyone on here believe we could return to rates of 3 or 4% within this decade? The government would step in and regulate them to prevent anyone going under haha!!
  16. I agree with most of the above and I could see the BoE lower it’s base rate to become negative. I just cannot see that being shared by mortgage lenders. I think they know the housing market is already in too precarious a position. Would they offer this to ‘save’ people temporarily from defaulting? I really don’t know. Why is no one screaming at the government to demand answers on why prices have spiralled out of control on their watches? Amidst a pandemic!!
  17. So what have the majority of civil servants been doing for the last year? Online training?!? Every council service near me was stripped back, with many completely closed. As someone mentioned, even planning departments shut down such was the madness. We couldn’t register the birth of our child or even request a new bin because the phones literally weren’t even being answered anymore!!! At least the NHS redeployed many staff to tackling covid. My wife and her colleagues helped with admin and took turns as sentries helping greet/direct patients in hospital. As councils receive most of their funding from government, I think it was incredibly short-sighted and frankly selfish to not have staff roll up their sleeves and help in other ways. Our council is still running limited services in many areas which is laughable.
  18. What would be the basis/necessity for that though? We’ve seen recording breaking rises in house prices amidst a pandemic where 12 million workers were effectively laid off. Surely that’s told lenders all they need to know about how wreckless consumers are. No need to offer them negative rates to encourage spending. I hope you’re right tho… our fix comes to an end next summer. Surely negative rates would be for new customers - they’d hardly port existing customers onto a negative.
  19. Yup. There’s a cracking period house in a rural location we like for 350k. A year ago we ruled that price range out as the mortgage would be over £1000. Not now though. I spotted a 5 year fix working out at just under £900. Crucially, by the time that fix ends we’ll of cleared over 40k in the amount owed because the interest element is peanuts. My wife’s getting the spendy spendy bug too now. Last year she had a strict 300k rule but that’s went out the window having watched all her pals splash 400k out on houses that were only worth 250k 4 or 5 years ago. A few of which were even on furlough this time last year but relax, Boris has their backs. No one loses a home these days.
  20. They’re not thankfully. I know about 10 people that work in the NHS including my partner, and their direct accounts of how our hospitals are functioning supports the stats published in Scotland. Hospital/ICU admissions are down 70-80% on previous peaks. Deaths are down even further. There is no doubt the vaccine has contributed to this downward trend. There should however be concern about the clear ‘fourth phase’ emerging. Is it an acceptable trade off for younger people to have their freedom? I mean, music festivals? Really!? We know test positively is now heavily skewed toward younger people. I think we should of been a little more restrained.
  21. The element that angers me most is the way many businesses and local authority’s have hid behind covid. My local council being one of the biggest offenders. The resources they have at their disposal in view of so many services being effectively mothballed for a year, and what do they have to show for it? Nothing. Why not focus on community projects? Get literally 10s of thousands of civil servants in Scotland out helping keep the parks and streets tidy? Do community projects like improving the core path network or tidying up the beaches. Where I live a growing number of people are taking matters into their own hands and walking the streets with litter pickers. The council don’t bother with that sort of stuff anymore.
  22. It’s sad to hear about things like that happening in the past but thankfully for millions you now have wealthy government officials with multi-million property portfolios to protect. They won’t let anyone go under without a fight.
  23. There’s huge animosity amongst those that’ve endured the most challenging time of their working life, whilst millions benefited greatly from the likes of furlough and time off as a result of isolating. I’d rather of felt ‘slightly guilty’ and got what will hopefully turn out to be a ‘once in a lifetime’ fully-funded career break, than of worked throughout as I did. (Often longer, unpaid hours because of overtime payments being suspended to protect the company). What happens next depends on the government and their corrupt financial institutes. Do they stop lying about inflation to stop it spiralling further out of control, and to halt the grotesque consumer spending? Sadly I think we’ll see record spending levels this Christmas as the government cobble together a furlough 2.0 to protect struggling industries that were failing even before the pandemic.
  24. For starters they’ll of achieved a far higher loan to value without actually ‘earning’ it. So cheaper rates. Also, who’s to say many aren’t downsizing or just selling up to move to the next area that will boom?
  25. Things have gone mad. I think houses build post-2000 are a good metric for analysing prices because you have good sample sizes when dealing with estates and you can compare location/size more readily. In 2016 you could get a ‘budget’ detached house in a less desirable location in central Scotland for about 180-200k. Bigger 4-beds in nicer areas pushed that up to 250-280k, with really nice ‘executive’ detached newer builds with the 5-beds and double garages about £325-350k. Now any detached house, irrespective of it being in crap town with crap schools seems to be 300k. Generic new-towns in the commuter belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, with very average schools and amenities, are regularly asking 350k for a generic detached house overlooked by 6 neighbours. If you look at the more desirable semi-rural places like Kinross, all the big detached houses are now £450k.
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