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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. A couple on £20k each could easily afford the £600-650 mortgage on a 200k house. Their combined take home would be about £2800!! I want a crash as much as most here but I often say the reality is that there is affordable housing up and down the country. Name an area that’s not in the far south and there’s plenty of places below on the market that are 100-150k. They might just be stepping stones but that’s how most homeowners start out. The first house I bought was 90k in 2006. It’s barely worth 120k 15 years later. If I had to, I’d live there again.
  2. How come their data varies so greatly to counts? I just think the methodology is open to huge interpretation. How come when I punch in various towns/cities in Scotland into the rightmove sold prices, a rise as low as 3 or 4% is given for prices since 2019?! Perthshire - 6%, Midlothian - 9%, Glasgow - 8%, Fife - 4%. Where’s the 13% yoy?! Can’t find anywhere in Scotland with that. I can see many properties selling for a killing but I can also see many, many types of properties selling for very small, affordable rises compared with 2018/2019.
  3. Because I could give lots of examples of houses they are barely up 10% over the last 3 years let alone 12 months.
  4. I agree with much of why you say. We can’t underestimate how important a part these incredibly low interest rates have played in house prices, even over the last 18 months. In 2006 I put down 5% deposit on an 90k flat which cost £500 per month interest only!!!! A young person today could buy a 200k house with a 95% LTV that’s only £100-150 per month more as a REPAYMENT mortgage!!! Minimum wage has doubled since then.
  5. I don’t believe the nationwide report the data accurately. Why would they? I base my view on actual sold prices. I check them every month for various areas around Scotland and I can see 13% yoy rises that’s been touted about is ********.
  6. It isn’t that simple though. Just because an incredibly small number of people paid 10-15% over the asking price these last 18 months doesn’t make their homes worth that figure. Fair enough if these prices sustain over 2 or 3 years, then you could argue that it’s a shift we’ll all face if we choose to move. I think there’s evidence prices are already falling however so I don’t accept that the figure some stupid people paid earlier this year is vindicated. People pay stupid prices for things every day in all walks of life. If prices hold then you can use the ‘market agrees’ line but they are already falling.
  7. I don’t think wage inflation will matter. Prices went up a notch as a result of the free money, government props and WFH movement that saves lots of families thousands a year. Prices have peaked and will erode/deflate over the next year now. You can already see that in the sold prices from July as well as general observations on rightmove etc. There are too many overpriced houses now stuck on the market now where I look. The sort that did sell for these daft prices 6-9 months ago. The games up.
  8. I must just be unlucky because I worked for a company owned by one of the largest engineering firms on the planet and they gave most of their staff a derisory 1% raise this summer. Some of us got more, but they blamed economic challenges despite it being clear we had made a killing during covid.
  9. I disagree. Employers will see this as an opportunity to save money on providing/maintaining office space and as well as a means of suppressing pay as a trade off to offering the convenience of WFH. I have friends that work in IT, NHS, engineering, rail, teaching and call centres. They’ve all been told a blend of WFH will continue to be the norm beyond covid. 50/50 split. Some of you guys underestimate how much managers and directors prefer to hide off-site, communicating only via teams and email!
  10. I change suppliers every year to get the best deal and this years projection is up 30-40%. We already try to manage our energy prudently but I guess this year we’ll all have to try that bit better!! I feel for a lot of families. When I grew up my parents weren’t that well off and I can remember always being very cold! The heating was seldom on for very long when I was young! I’ve been taking weekly readings to see just how bad the situation is going to be.
  11. Prices will roll back to 2018/2019 levels before the end of this winter. Not exactly a crash, but it’ll thrust 10s of thousands of muppets into negative equity. I don’t know why the HPI junkies are so smug - my little girls toys have gone up more in value during the pandemic than property. Her collection of LOL dolls is worth double what we paid last year so even ive started collecting them. They’ll paid for this years Christmas 😎
  12. I regularly float this sort of trip with the wife but the kids are very young so unfortunately it is strictly beach holidays only for now.
  13. I used to pride myself on building great, dirt cheap holidays for the wide abs I. Until the kids came along. If you want some winter sun it’s going to cost at least £3000 for somewhere nice, car hire and spending money.
  14. You don’t think the government will bail leisure and tourism out? Business isn’t going to pick up. Going to be a long, cold winter. Furlough may of ended but taxpayers are going to keep subsiding completely unsustainable industries while Boris at the helm.
  15. Many leisure operators were in difficulty before covid struck so their industry is frankly doomed now. I’m keen to go abroad regularly in the future but like many I’ll happily wait until next year or even 2023 to see how things are. I think the biggest issue aviation and travel operators face is people have had 2 years to learn to live differently. I don’t think foreign travel is something most crave, so I can see there being a legacy of people who opt for staycations or upgrading their home/garden for summers as an alternative. Job security and inflation also play a massive part in whether or not someone is likely to book a £3000-5000 holiday each year.
  16. I think they reality is that any interest rises are going to very small incremental. As counter intuitive as it is, I think it’s inconceivable the base rate hits 2% during 2022.
  17. It still doesn’t add up. Once all the selfish pensioners filled their tanks for the weekly tesco run, do you think they would’ve used enough of it to go back for more a few days later!? I don’t. People that need to commute may well be keeping their levels that bit higher but their consumption won’t change. Their weekly mileage will be what it was last week, and the week before. Probably less for fear of running out. A huge swathe of people are still working from home and using next to no fuel. Many of the garages near me have been closed for 4 or 5 days now. There aren’t endless queues of topper-uppers. There’s simply no fuel being delivered.
  18. Clueless muppet of the week goes to Kwarteng who said… ”The situation is stabilising as inflows to garages are being met with sales”. Surely the situation would only be stabilising if inflows were exceeding sales. What a clown. I see the government and their propaganda outlet are just going to blame panic buying for the rest of the year. I’m pretty sure millions of drivers haven’t amassed 5x the capacity of their fuel tanks by storing it in the garage. The spike in buying shouldn’t last this long - there are clear supply chain issues. Brexit Britain is hilariously bad. Europeans must be pissing themselves with laughter at the mess we’ve gotten into.
  19. I just don’t believe the house price rises for the past 18 months have any bearing on what prices will be this winter or indeed next year. The only people I know that moved openly admitted to paying way over the odds because ‘they had no choice’. I would argue they could’ve waited a year, as is many other people’s strategy. People have their heads buried in the sand over inflation. Shopping for the kids Christmas is blowing my mind. Normally Argos, very, tesco, smyths, and Amazon etc are all within a few pounds of one another. You find yourself saving the odd £ here and there. This year however supply is so limited that a particular variant of a toy can be £20 on argos’ website, but £45 or Very and £60 on Smyths!!! It’s madness!!! Retailers are clearly poised to rip consumers off this winter. You can check price tracker websites and find toys that freely sold for £50 that are now over £100. I’ve never seen this happen before - it’s crazy. Toys I paid £10-15 for last Christmas that are now 2 or 3 times the price!!!
  20. The market certainly isn’t red hot across the broad swathe of Scotland I check on a daily basis. At the beginning of September I posted that there were 3 new listings I’d seen that were ideal barometers for the current market. Desirable properties in great streets that only cropped every 3 or 4 years. All 3 are still on the market without a closing date between them. A similar 4th property recently sold for barely 10% over its early 2019 price which strengthens my position that prices are declining. It’s delusional to think the fake 13% increase that’s been report will stick, let alone become a benchmark for further rises throughout 2022. If you have a young family and haven’t started your Christmas shopping yet then good luck. Lots of toys have doubled in price since Christmas 2020. All these HPI cheerleaders are completely out of touch with the monumental hikes in the cost of living.
  21. The cost of living is rising sharply and that can’t be ignored. It fundamentally impacts the amount of money we have in our pockets. As I said previously, the 13% rise in property prices is subjective and not representative of the intrinsic value of homes. The market is already cooling and that 13% is probably comfortably under 10% yoy already. I have my head in my hands when people use the line ‘survival of the fittest’ because clearly we are not all born as fit as one another. Criticise the winter lockdown if you like, I mean it was pitched as something they knew to be untrue - a ‘3 week circuit breaker’. But you have to go back to late autumn 2020 and consider where we were at. We were on the verge of a vaccination and had legitimate concerns about variants. A lots changed since then.
  22. We didn’t have a vaccine at that point therefore it was a legitimate measure to mitigate deaths. To what degree it would save lives? We didn’t not know but it was worth a shot. Things have changed considerably since then. It’s in no ones interest to keep locking countries down. Take a look at the protests in Australia. Hell, take a look at what’s happening on the M25! The UK government know they couldn’t pull off another lockdown.
  23. The government won’t go for another lockdown. We couldn’t afford the first one. This is it now. Take reasonable precautions, follow basic hygiene and take the vaccination. There’s nothing more any government can do, or would want to do. Everyone’s tired of this and will accept what will be, will be.
  24. The point I’m making is with supply very very low, it’s easy for sellers to capitalise. We viewed 3 houses during these covid times and put an offer in on two. In two instances the properties took 6-7 months to complete. Clearly the result of a daft offers from people who didn’t have the funds in place to move faster. My father in law listed his parents house for £280k. They had 3 outrageous offers, the highest bidder was £380k and they lied about being cash buyers. They stalled for months while they listed and sold their house. Luckily the sale stood. I just don’t think these last 18 months are a good barometer for where prices will be when things settle. Just because a select few paid over the odds doesn’t mean others will. I’ve asked dozens of friends and colleagues about their views on the market. Many want to upsize like myself. Several are FTBs. They all unanimously agree prices are silly and could fall soon. I know 3 couples that did move, all of them have young families and paid a stupid price for a bigger family home last summer. They all openly admit to being ripped off but said ‘they had no choice’. This winter will be interesting. If prices don’t roll back then perhaps the 13% will stick through 2022. I’m not convinced though. I look at the sold prices and can’t stop laughing at what people are paying.
  25. I like you, speedy. I really do. However this statement is deeply flawed. I’m pretty sure transactions over the past 18 months are down 65%. That’s an astronomical hit on supply. Every viewing I went to was packed with punters, and many agents admitted “everyone wants to buy but isn’t listing first”. It stands to reason prices on those particular houses were driven up. This happens with any other asset when you have abnormal market conditions. I mean, I’m pretty sure in the run up to Christmas I could sell my X Box Series S for 13% more than I paid last year but it doesn’t mean it’s going to hold that value beyond Boxing Day. It doesn’t mean it’s inherently worth that simply because for a small period of time someone pays it. I firmly believe the 13% will have eroded away completely through winter. Furlough still hasn’t ended and the papers are now lapping up the apocalyptic inflation headlines which damage confidence in the future.
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