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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. I think they’ll fall because the rises are entirely due to a decade of rock bottom mortgage rates. The BoE raised the base rate but then covid came along and they slashed it. I think inflation will dictate that it rises again and further. Homeowners will not get these same ultra low 2-5 year rates next time around. I couldn’t dream of buying a 350k house 5 years ago but at today’s rates it’s comfortably affordable. Hence houses became dearer. The main reason I will think there will be a fall of 20% (or 10-15% down on 2019) is because housing is fundamentally unaffordable in most places. My wife and I have pretty good jobs and we make good financial decisions, but we still can’t afford something toward the higher end of the market. I look around at friends and colleagues and scratch my head at who amongst us can afford that nice house I saw online the other day. None of us can!! The couples I know that snapped up some pricy places whilst paying the covid premium are all exposed. Many admit they are worried about borrowing too much. That doesn’t bode well when they’ve borrowed at an incredibly low rate.
  2. I know it’s all just classic HPC optimism but 7 of the 32 ‘listed within last 24 hours’ properties in my search area are reductions. That’s declared reductions too. I bet some of the other ‘new’ listings are also reduced/relisted places. Honeslty… this is it guys!!!! This is it!!!! The muppet millennial middle movers have done us all a favour with this boom daft covid boom. They’ve inflated prices to oblivion!!!
  3. The fact that transactions are down 60-70% has a huge impact on prices. Most agents I’ve chatted to have spoken of buyers out-numbering sellers greatly. “Everyone wants to buy but they aren’t listing their own house first”. It stands to reason that prices will rise as people take a punt on a property, knowing they’ll have to make their offer more appealing as they are not on the market themselves. I honestly believe we’ve just observed a generation of middle-movers buy/sell that are ‘cashing in’ the profits on their first couple of houses. These people know they are paying a premium at a precarious time. We’re just seeing cash associates with historic rises in prices change hands. Every daft price I see puts a smile on my face because it’s completely unsustainable. There will be a crash. It’s going to be a very interesting 3-4 months now.
  4. A sought after house near me appeared online at exactly the same price it sold for 3 years ago. Sure it’s just one example, but it’s in a premium street where they are seldom sold. I really hope the handful of hints of the tide turning near me come to fruition. If the BoE would only just raise the base rate marginally i think a lot of people would start to panic.
  5. We we weathered the ‘Scotland’s covid positivity soaring’ propaganda storm, so now the BBC focus on a new line on of enquiry… https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58387017 97% of electricity used last year was derived from renewable resources. Tough crowd.
  6. Er… that’s nothing new nor anything to do with boosting the economy. It’s about suppressing a pro-independence movement that’s gathering momentum. No one in my local B&Q is even Scottish… it’s quite clear what’s happening!!
  7. Companies are just rinsing every last penny out of it. I saw Tui say they planned to bring all staff back when furlough ends. Er… why wait any other couple of weeks?!?! Why should we subsidise them any longer? Its not real money anymore. There’s no morality to it. Just take as much as you can.
  8. I’m kinda the same in terms of thinking ahead to my next fix which is mid-2022. I’m certain I will go for a 5 year deal as I’m within 60% LTV in this place. On borrowing of 200k though, the difference between 1% and 0.5% over a 5 year term isn’t even £100 a month. Every little helps of course but rates are so low these days that I don’t see further cuts as much of a game changer. To me it’s more about planning for the future. We hope to upsize (I know I keep saying that!), so my only concern is what rates are likely to be in 2027 or so when our new houses 5 year deal is coming to an end. I mean does anyone on here believe we could return to rates of 3 or 4% within this decade? The government would step in and regulate them to prevent anyone going under haha!!
  9. I agree with most of the above and I could see the BoE lower it’s base rate to become negative. I just cannot see that being shared by mortgage lenders. I think they know the housing market is already in too precarious a position. Would they offer this to ‘save’ people temporarily from defaulting? I really don’t know. Why is no one screaming at the government to demand answers on why prices have spiralled out of control on their watches? Amidst a pandemic!!
  10. So what have the majority of civil servants been doing for the last year? Online training?!? Every council service near me was stripped back, with many completely closed. As someone mentioned, even planning departments shut down such was the madness. We couldn’t register the birth of our child or even request a new bin because the phones literally weren’t even being answered anymore!!! At least the NHS redeployed many staff to tackling covid. My wife and her colleagues helped with admin and took turns as sentries helping greet/direct patients in hospital. As councils receive most of their funding from government, I think it was incredibly short-sighted and frankly selfish to not have staff roll up their sleeves and help in other ways. Our council is still running limited services in many areas which is laughable.
  11. What would be the basis/necessity for that though? We’ve seen recording breaking rises in house prices amidst a pandemic where 12 million workers were effectively laid off. Surely that’s told lenders all they need to know about how wreckless consumers are. No need to offer them negative rates to encourage spending. I hope you’re right tho… our fix comes to an end next summer. Surely negative rates would be for new customers - they’d hardly port existing customers onto a negative.
  12. Yup. There’s a cracking period house in a rural location we like for 350k. A year ago we ruled that price range out as the mortgage would be over £1000. Not now though. I spotted a 5 year fix working out at just under £900. Crucially, by the time that fix ends we’ll of cleared over 40k in the amount owed because the interest element is peanuts. My wife’s getting the spendy spendy bug too now. Last year she had a strict 300k rule but that’s went out the window having watched all her pals splash 400k out on houses that were only worth 250k 4 or 5 years ago. A few of which were even on furlough this time last year but relax, Boris has their backs. No one loses a home these days.
  13. They’re not thankfully. I know about 10 people that work in the NHS including my partner, and their direct accounts of how our hospitals are functioning supports the stats published in Scotland. Hospital/ICU admissions are down 70-80% on previous peaks. Deaths are down even further. There is no doubt the vaccine has contributed to this downward trend. There should however be concern about the clear ‘fourth phase’ emerging. Is it an acceptable trade off for younger people to have their freedom? I mean, music festivals? Really!? We know test positively is now heavily skewed toward younger people. I think we should of been a little more restrained.
  14. The element that angers me most is the way many businesses and local authority’s have hid behind covid. My local council being one of the biggest offenders. The resources they have at their disposal in view of so many services being effectively mothballed for a year, and what do they have to show for it? Nothing. Why not focus on community projects? Get literally 10s of thousands of civil servants in Scotland out helping keep the parks and streets tidy? Do community projects like improving the core path network or tidying up the beaches. Where I live a growing number of people are taking matters into their own hands and walking the streets with litter pickers. The council don’t bother with that sort of stuff anymore.
  15. It’s sad to hear about things like that happening in the past but thankfully for millions you now have wealthy government officials with multi-million property portfolios to protect. They won’t let anyone go under without a fight.
  16. There’s huge animosity amongst those that’ve endured the most challenging time of their working life, whilst millions benefited greatly from the likes of furlough and time off as a result of isolating. I’d rather of felt ‘slightly guilty’ and got what will hopefully turn out to be a ‘once in a lifetime’ fully-funded career break, than of worked throughout as I did. (Often longer, unpaid hours because of overtime payments being suspended to protect the company). What happens next depends on the government and their corrupt financial institutes. Do they stop lying about inflation to stop it spiralling further out of control, and to halt the grotesque consumer spending? Sadly I think we’ll see record spending levels this Christmas as the government cobble together a furlough 2.0 to protect struggling industries that were failing even before the pandemic.
  17. For starters they’ll of achieved a far higher loan to value without actually ‘earning’ it. So cheaper rates. Also, who’s to say many aren’t downsizing or just selling up to move to the next area that will boom?
  18. Things have gone mad. I think houses build post-2000 are a good metric for analysing prices because you have good sample sizes when dealing with estates and you can compare location/size more readily. In 2016 you could get a ‘budget’ detached house in a less desirable location in central Scotland for about 180-200k. Bigger 4-beds in nicer areas pushed that up to 250-280k, with really nice ‘executive’ detached newer builds with the 5-beds and double garages about £325-350k. Now any detached house, irrespective of it being in crap town with crap schools seems to be 300k. Generic new-towns in the commuter belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, with very average schools and amenities, are regularly asking 350k for a generic detached house overlooked by 6 neighbours. If you look at the more desirable semi-rural places like Kinross, all the big detached houses are now £450k.
  19. It’s too late. The housing market is so pumped up we need falls of 40-50% to fix it now. Ive just went through about 20 houses in my search radius. It’s sickening how insane the rises have been over the last 4 or 5 years. So many houses in the list sold for about 80-100k less in 2016. I bet these people cannot believe their luck. This is the 250-350k price range where they’ve risen about 30-40% in that time. Many 50%+ rises.
  20. They were close to Sainsburys in price but the £60 nectar points tipped it.
  21. Last year the cheapest supplier of electricity I found was 20p standing charge, 13p per KWh. 12 months later the cheapest is 23p/18p if you exclude the 2 very cheapest which are an OFGEM nightmare. Across both fuels, we are getting a fixed rate for 12 months from Sainsburys Enegry that represents a 40% hike on last year. £1150 increase to £1600… But according to the ONS inflation is 2%….
  22. I can’t think of any rationale for the exceptional fall in transactions not fuelling prices. Over the last 18 months I’ve put two offers in for houses. On both occasions the estate agents gloated about receiving 20-30 offers on the closing date. We offered 20% over the home report valuation on one place in an effort to have it removed from the market, however the agent boasted that with 70 viewings lined up we had no chance. (The sellers rejected it and ironically it sold for a little less). The agents I’ve spoken to say that everyone’s desperate to buy but there aren’t enough houses actively listed. People are putting in big offers because they know if they don’t try they could wait longer for another similar place to come up.
  23. The Scottish Conservative Party share the same policies and ideals of Boris’ administration. So the notion that the SNP are only popular because of a lack of opposition, particularly when discussed in the context of the union is quite ridiculous. You really cannot underestimate how deeply unpopular these successive conservative administrations have been up here. Your second point is undermined by the fact that we have our own parliament, devolved powers and laws. Our economy is founded on different industry, manufacturing and skill sets. The argument you present of “not everyone gets the government they vote for” is quite bizarre when ‘not everyone’ in this case is the overwhelmingly majority of people in a county. A nation that is quite different to its neighbours for the reasons listed above. It’s not arrogance. it’s not bigotry. Please look at our election results and present a tangible argument for why anyone in right mind would want to stay in the union as it stands.
  24. If the Scottish elections were a two horse race between blue and red as they are in the UK elections, then perhaps you’d have a point. Representation in Holyrood however shows how we differ politically. The Conservatives tended to only get 15% of the vote share. Latterly it’s been about 20% because our system gives 2 votes and the second is used tactically. The Tories campaign is always simply ‘vote for us to save the union and oil industry’, and still that’s the best they do. So its clearly not short-termist. You’re not appreciating that a generation of 30-something voters like myself haven’t had their voices heard in the UK parliament. In fact, the majority of votes cast by Scots in the UK elections since 2003 have had no impact on the outcome. I understand in any election a significant proportion of voters don’t get the government they voted for, but we effectively don’t even have a horse running in the Westminster Cup!! I can’t see us both voting labour any time soon so things will simply not change.
  25. The consumer price index will use staples like oats or unbranded corn flakes as the metric for that category of goods. Sure, we could all just go for the cheaper option that probably hasn’t rise much over many years, but the fact remains your average weekly food shop has gone up considerably in the last 12-18 months. Lots of things have risen dramatically as businesses capitalise on all the sore covid cash millions of people have swindled. The ONS’ claim of 2.5% year on year inflationary rise is scandalous. Go to the barbers, they’ve put their prices up 10-20%. Go for a coffee and sandwich anywhere and it’s risen 20%. Being Scottish, l make it my business to memorise every single expenditure!!!
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