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House Price Crash Forum

Pmax2020

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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. One things for sure - whatever figure they report you could probably double it.
  2. That depends. My wife and I waited til our early 30s to start a family once our careers were established and we had a decent amount of equity behind us. Our first property was the cheapest/smallest money could buy. I don’t sympathise young couples that’ve missed out a few rungs of the ladder and are sitting in big ‘executive’ new builds with horrendous LTVs. I’m not bitter, I’ve just spent many years staying put in houses while I saved/prepared for the next. Yes, in an ideal world we could all afford to live in nice big family homes in our early 20s but for obvious reasons it can’t work that way. My wife and I are the best off we’ve ever been but still we refuse to upgrade in spite of friends doing so. We want to clear a bit more of the current mortgage and get the bank balance even higher. I know I sound self righteous but I’m just try to keep my family safe and secure.
  3. I was convinced we’d see a rise last month but Boris has the BoE in his pocket. I now think a 0.15 rise this year is unlikely, in fact I think a base rate of 0.5% by summer 2022 is also highly unlikely. There’s an agenda for high inflation. Let the masses think they are rolling in it while the boomers check out before the big economic crash.
  4. The problem is my mileage is very sporadic. I can go a few weeks without having to travel much at all, then have a week where I’m doing 200-300 miles a couple of days in a row. In Scotland there aren’t many rapid chargers in more rural areas when I need to got business trips, so it can be a nightmare!
  5. The 2013 Boston Marathon bombing is the most poorly executed false flag operation in history. It’s shambolic. A complete set-up, so badly executed that there’s been a massive censorship operation of the damning photos and videos that showed it to be a hoax.
  6. My EV is on the chopping block. I’m changing company shortly and I think I’ll go hybrid next. What do you have? The VW ID4 looks pretty cool but competition for the rapid charging points in Scotland has reached tipping point. In the last 12 months it seems every tariff-free charging point has a couple of Tesla’s queued up waiting to use them!! It’s a nightmare. Might go for one of the hybrids that ticks the decent BIK boxes even though in practice they aren’t really economic. 530e looks nice but I’ve gotten used to driving the free electric car for over a year now…
  7. Coupled with the fact we had an incredibly mild spring/summer. Normally my wife sticks the heating on here abs there but not this summer!
  8. A couple on £20k each could easily afford the £600-650 mortgage on a 200k house. Their combined take home would be about £2800!! I want a crash as much as most here but I often say the reality is that there is affordable housing up and down the country. Name an area that’s not in the far south and there’s plenty of places below on the market that are 100-150k. They might just be stepping stones but that’s how most homeowners start out. The first house I bought was 90k in 2006. It’s barely worth 120k 15 years later. If I had to, I’d live there again.
  9. How come their data varies so greatly to counts? I just think the methodology is open to huge interpretation. How come when I punch in various towns/cities in Scotland into the rightmove sold prices, a rise as low as 3 or 4% is given for prices since 2019?! Perthshire - 6%, Midlothian - 9%, Glasgow - 8%, Fife - 4%. Where’s the 13% yoy?! Can’t find anywhere in Scotland with that. I can see many properties selling for a killing but I can also see many, many types of properties selling for very small, affordable rises compared with 2018/2019.
  10. Because I could give lots of examples of houses they are barely up 10% over the last 3 years let alone 12 months.
  11. I agree with much of why you say. We can’t underestimate how important a part these incredibly low interest rates have played in house prices, even over the last 18 months. In 2006 I put down 5% deposit on an 90k flat which cost £500 per month interest only!!!! A young person today could buy a 200k house with a 95% LTV that’s only £100-150 per month more as a REPAYMENT mortgage!!! Minimum wage has doubled since then.
  12. I don’t believe the nationwide report the data accurately. Why would they? I base my view on actual sold prices. I check them every month for various areas around Scotland and I can see 13% yoy rises that’s been touted about is ********.
  13. It isn’t that simple though. Just because an incredibly small number of people paid 10-15% over the asking price these last 18 months doesn’t make their homes worth that figure. Fair enough if these prices sustain over 2 or 3 years, then you could argue that it’s a shift we’ll all face if we choose to move. I think there’s evidence prices are already falling however so I don’t accept that the figure some stupid people paid earlier this year is vindicated. People pay stupid prices for things every day in all walks of life. If prices hold then you can use the ‘market agrees’ line but they are already falling.
  14. I don’t think wage inflation will matter. Prices went up a notch as a result of the free money, government props and WFH movement that saves lots of families thousands a year. Prices have peaked and will erode/deflate over the next year now. You can already see that in the sold prices from July as well as general observations on rightmove etc. There are too many overpriced houses now stuck on the market now where I look. The sort that did sell for these daft prices 6-9 months ago. The games up.
  15. I must just be unlucky because I worked for a company owned by one of the largest engineering firms on the planet and they gave most of their staff a derisory 1% raise this summer. Some of us got more, but they blamed economic challenges despite it being clear we had made a killing during covid.
  16. I disagree. Employers will see this as an opportunity to save money on providing/maintaining office space and as well as a means of suppressing pay as a trade off to offering the convenience of WFH. I have friends that work in IT, NHS, engineering, rail, teaching and call centres. They’ve all been told a blend of WFH will continue to be the norm beyond covid. 50/50 split. Some of you guys underestimate how much managers and directors prefer to hide off-site, communicating only via teams and email!
  17. I change suppliers every year to get the best deal and this years projection is up 30-40%. We already try to manage our energy prudently but I guess this year we’ll all have to try that bit better!! I feel for a lot of families. When I grew up my parents weren’t that well off and I can remember always being very cold! The heating was seldom on for very long when I was young! I’ve been taking weekly readings to see just how bad the situation is going to be.
  18. Prices will roll back to 2018/2019 levels before the end of this winter. Not exactly a crash, but it’ll thrust 10s of thousands of muppets into negative equity. I don’t know why the HPI junkies are so smug - my little girls toys have gone up more in value during the pandemic than property. Her collection of LOL dolls is worth double what we paid last year so even ive started collecting them. They’ll paid for this years Christmas 😎
  19. I regularly float this sort of trip with the wife but the kids are very young so unfortunately it is strictly beach holidays only for now.
  20. I used to pride myself on building great, dirt cheap holidays for the wide abs I. Until the kids came along. If you want some winter sun it’s going to cost at least £3000 for somewhere nice, car hire and spending money.
  21. You don’t think the government will bail leisure and tourism out? Business isn’t going to pick up. Going to be a long, cold winter. Furlough may of ended but taxpayers are going to keep subsiding completely unsustainable industries while Boris at the helm.
  22. Many leisure operators were in difficulty before covid struck so their industry is frankly doomed now. I’m keen to go abroad regularly in the future but like many I’ll happily wait until next year or even 2023 to see how things are. I think the biggest issue aviation and travel operators face is people have had 2 years to learn to live differently. I don’t think foreign travel is something most crave, so I can see there being a legacy of people who opt for staycations or upgrading their home/garden for summers as an alternative. Job security and inflation also play a massive part in whether or not someone is likely to book a £3000-5000 holiday each year.
  23. I think they reality is that any interest rises are going to very small incremental. As counter intuitive as it is, I think it’s inconceivable the base rate hits 2% during 2022.
  24. It still doesn’t add up. Once all the selfish pensioners filled their tanks for the weekly tesco run, do you think they would’ve used enough of it to go back for more a few days later!? I don’t. People that need to commute may well be keeping their levels that bit higher but their consumption won’t change. Their weekly mileage will be what it was last week, and the week before. Probably less for fear of running out. A huge swathe of people are still working from home and using next to no fuel. Many of the garages near me have been closed for 4 or 5 days now. There aren’t endless queues of topper-uppers. There’s simply no fuel being delivered.
  25. Clueless muppet of the week goes to Kwarteng who said… ”The situation is stabilising as inflows to garages are being met with sales”. Surely the situation would only be stabilising if inflows were exceeding sales. What a clown. I see the government and their propaganda outlet are just going to blame panic buying for the rest of the year. I’m pretty sure millions of drivers haven’t amassed 5x the capacity of their fuel tanks by storing it in the garage. The spike in buying shouldn’t last this long - there are clear supply chain issues. Brexit Britain is hilariously bad. Europeans must be pissing themselves with laughter at the mess we’ve gotten into.
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