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House Price Crash Forum

Pmax2020

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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. I’ve been busy with work and family life these last few weeks so I’ve not really followed much in terms of covid. Where are we at? Masks and vaccinations aside, do you see a rise in deaths this year? A fourth wave? The Scottish dashboard shows ICU admissions peaking in August but only to about 40% of the levels of the previous two waves. More importantly, this recent mini Summer peak of cases and hospital admissions hasn’t translated to deaths. Deaths in August were a good 80% below that observed last winter and spring 2020. Dare I say things are looking positive in terms of the virus is running out of steam?
  2. This is exactly how I live my life. If you were to dwell on all the horrible things that happen in the world, or that could happen to you or the people you love then you wouldn’t sleep at night or want to leave your house. Lockdown jokes aside, it’s the simple things in life that make it worth living and that can’t be taken away from us. Forming relationships, learning new skills, taking responsibility, accomplishing goals, travelling, enjoying food, drink, hobbies, sport etc. Invest time and effort into the things that make you happy. Eliminate the things that just cause stress and pain.
  3. can some explain the evergande issue in a couple of sentences a muppet like me will understand?
  4. Don’t you feel the cost of many goods and services has risen purely as a result of all this excess money sloshing about though? I approached half a dozen builders last summer to price replacing a few windows. 4 of them boasted about being too busy to even look at the job, the other two responded with “I’m afraid it’ll have to cost this much because we’re so busy right now”. Literally saying pay double the going rate and we’ll do it! Surely the fact that used cars have gone up in price is the single biggest piece of evidence for this. A guy I work with bought a skoda late 2019 for £10,500 and just sold it to a company for £11,600 this week!!!
  5. Saving £6 annually on my motor insurance doesn’t offset my gas and electricity going up £600. House prices rising 13% year on year doesn’t compensate for the latest 5 year fix being 0.05% lower than last year. Shall I continue?
  6. You have to put it in perspective though. I don’t think you’d need hundreds of these stations to serve a country the size of Scotland, so how big a price would we potentially pay by having, say, 15-20 facilities? Across the expansive mountain ranges that span the breadth of a country like Scotland you’re not going to look out across the vista and see a horizon ruined by concrete monstrosities. These types of power stations are discreet as the dams invariable block the buildings that adjoin them. From many angles you’re just going to see what looks like a reservoir or loch.
  7. I like to indulge myself in apocalyptic HPC & Economic doomsday chat as much as the next guy but even the mundane parts of life as well as fleeting moments transcend that burrowing feeing in my mind that the world is ‘just a horrible place’. When I’m out running I can enjoy being outdoors away from the pressures of day to day life. I find myself enjoying those minor changes in surroundings as we progress through each season. Running in the frost, snow, rain, or sunshine. You can’t beat it. You just need to find the things that bring you enjoyment and block out the crappy bits. It’s not easy but it’s worth living for 😝
  8. I hadn’t realised it but the project has been approved by the Scottish Government and is to be constructed. The difference in elevation between loch ness’ and sea level (16 metres) must be sufficient to economically generate power. Perhaps it’s large surface area compensates for the lack of desirable elevation. The point is there’s huge potential for generating hydroelectric energy in Scotland because there’s an abundance of locations you could effectively dam to construct these facilities. I’ve visited Pitlochry’s hydro power station a few times over the years and it’s more of an attraction that an eye sore. It’s a pretty awesome feat of engineering.
  9. I think it’s a generational thing. More people going to uni immediately adds 4 or 5 years to when the time is right to have a family. People also want to establish a career before starting a family which is fair enough. Some employers aren’t flexible about longer maternity leave either which is problematic. Im in my late 30s and while I’m fortunate enough to have young kids now, it wasn’t as easy because we left it that bit later. We know many people who relied on IVF to fall pregnant as they too were getting that bit older. Luckily being Scottish, the threat of paying for IVF must of focused my mind and we didn’t need to resort to it. It’s incredibly common for couples to be told ‘you’re both perfectly fit and healthy, we can’t explain why you’re not falling pregnant’. So I wouldn’t assume that for many women/couples it’s been a choice not to have kids. Lifestyle, diet and mental health play a huge part in it.
  10. The reason Scotland generates 85% of the UK’s hydroelectric energy is partly political will, but predominantly physical geography and climate. Scotland has greater mountainous regions that draw more precipitation to our lochs and reservoirs. We have vast amounts of fresh water and never experience drought. A few years ago there were plans to harness energy from loch Ness. It alone contains more water than all lakes and reservoirs in England and Wales combined. It was believed it would service power to about 400,000 homes, which equates to about 15% of Scotland’s residential dwelling. All from a single loch… So forgive me but that’s one of many reasons I laugh at the Barnet formula and English people asking if they can vote Scotland out of the UK. The Scots are brainwashed from birth by BBC as being heavily dependent on England’s riches.
  11. A good example is the cost of holidaying in the UK which has rocketed. A place we’ve stayed at pretty regularly was £600 a week for a static caravan in the middle of nowhere. This summer they put their prices up to £1000. I believe the media reports that staycations have broadly risen 40% this year. Funny how scrutiny of the CPI ‘leisure and hotels’ segment offers us an insulting 6% rise year on year. So yes, whether you call it lies or just being manipulative with the data - it’s utter horse sh*t either way.
  12. How do the BoE justify a 0.1% base rate any longer? Surely they announce next week it’s to rise?!?! Even to just 0.25%?!
  13. I remember paying £64.99 for Nintendo 64 games in the 90s. I also remember saving up for a ‘big’ 32” telly as well that was around £330. Fast forward 25 years and electronics have never been so inexpensive. Many games are now completely free. When I passed my test in 2002 we all experienced huge rises in petrol in the years that followed. I was angry at home much of my rubbish wage went into the fuel tank but i adapted. Car sharing, cycling and simply walking as many local journeys as I could. I tried to drive as few miles as I could each year and still do to this day. That’s my strategy for nowadays. Retailers have to work hard for my money. 15% off? Nah I’ll wait. 25% now? Let me see if I can stack a voucher code on top of that and get some cashback too. I’ve stopped buying certain food and drink that has risen disproportionately, and we buy second hand where possible and in moderation. The kids are spoilt but that’s because we sell their toys a couple of years later for virtually the same price we paid in the shops 😁
  14. Bit off topic but check this out…. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/113092682#/?channel=RES_BUY This is why I often say generally prices in Scotland are well insulated for a crash. WFH and live rurally like a king very affordably.
  15. Can I be HPC.co.uk’s Scottish correspondent? My feeling having trawled through thousands of sold prices for many years is our stats are currently skewed by middle-movers and those vacating the cities. People are paying £350k for a newer build that sold for £200k 4 years ago. For 4 tiny bedrooms, a garage only a foot wider than your car and a garden overlooked by 8 of your neighbours. I feel when you move away from those types of home that are now easily affordable to young, expanding families, prices become more predictable. Take your older housing estates, period properties or flats in the centre of town. There, you find prices haven't changed much for a few years. Ive viewed a couple of projects in Kinross-shire recently. Detached, character homes on massive plots that need a lot of work doing. I really don’t see much change in their prices over the last few years but maybe that’s not everyone’s cup of tea. I could post you links to amazing homes with an acre of land in the Scottish Borders for only £300-400k.
  16. Hmm…. not sure about that. Charging from a normal household socket is painfully slow. I’ve left the car on charge from lunchtime till mid morning and it’s still nowhere near fully charged. I have the 208e with 210 mile range. It’s a nice car. I can take a week off work and that full charge is enough for a few shopping trips, local days out and a long excursion. The two issues for me are… 1) Charging isn’t cheap anymore. Fees are being introduced everywhere and there are queues at many sites. The rapid chargers are hard to get. 2) As soon as they start introducing benefit in kind contributions the game is up. It’s only a matter of time. The offset in savings will be written off and I’ll go back to petrol.
  17. The markets I keep an eye on in Scotland have went really quiet. Only a dozen or so ‘new’ properties each day compared with 30-40 earlier in the year. Many are reductions. I spotted 4 or 5 properties a few weeks ago that I felt represented good indicators of the current market and to my pleasure 2 were reduced recently. Julys sold prices appeared on rightmove yesterday. Their algorithm has prices up just 4% in 2 years. Each month the data supports my original assertion that 95% of sales are about 10-15% up on their 2015-2016 prices. I can live with that. There is however a higher proportion of daft prices. Muppets paying 100k more than anyone else did a year ago. People buying an unimpressive house for twice the price the developer paid earlier in the year. I think these are the sales skewing the data while transactions are so low.
  18. I agree with the sentiment of the post but invariably with this forum there’s a disregard for how interest rates impact the true cost of housing. Borrowing 200k in 2010 was probably more costly than borrowing 300k today. In years gone by those initial years of a mortgage compromised primarily of interest. That just isn’t the case today. People buying today can reduce the amount owed far quicker and whilst ‘losing’ less in interest to the lender.
  19. Excellent news. In Scotland our sold prices appear on rightmove about 6-8 weeks later so these next few months are very critical. I won’t lie, I’ve seen some depressingly strong sold prices these last 18 months but I do feel the market is show signs of running out of steam. Ie. The odd house selling below it’s home report valuation or those that sell without finishing strongly via a prompt closing date. We viewed a big project of a house in Perth & Kinross last week. When we phoned up there was only 1 note of interest and no closing date planned. This was after a couple of weeks of being on the market. I really feel 6 months ago that would never of sat that long. It’s sold price will be very interesting.
  20. It’ll take as long as it takes for young people to really start asking pertinent questions like ‘what is/was triple lock?’ and ‘why on earth is my retirement are 70?’. And ‘Why did the government print a trillion pounds when everyone knows it leads to inflation? Why did they offer props to the housing market when it only resulted in record breaking rises? I don’t see how we look back on this government in years to come and not find it staggering how badly they managed our economy. Hopefully it’ll just be a generational thing. A lot of ageing boomers looking out for number 1 as they near retirement. I think there’s too much inequality between young and old people for the next generation of workers, retirees, economists, mps etc to not seriously question the state of our economy and standard of living.
  21. This is broadly my take on housing too, but the million dollar question is would Boris let that happen? The ONS are manipulating the CPI. Meanwhile the Bank of England continue with QE when all it does is fuel inflation. We have a government that would rather pay people to sit in the house right now, than backfill hundreds of thousands jobs in manufacturing, food production, logistics etc. The Tories will not let prices fall. If the market starts to wobble they’ll probably intervene and guarantee low rates or create flexible mortgages. I could honestly see some bizarre 0% mortgage schemes for FTBs or young families. I wouldn’t put it past them.
  22. I agree. The handful of people I know that moved openly admitted to paying more than they felt the place was worth because if they didn’t, they feared it would be weeks before another came up. Such increases where supply is limited can only be magnified when dealing with property because timing is crucial and you can’t simply list and sell without feeling pressured into buying quickly. Especially if you have a family to house. I think one either of two things will happen… 1) Rates will go up and prices will fall. 2) Rates with will go down and prices will rise. Either way I think housing is going to be expensive for generations to come…
  23. What could be the criticism here? New builds and extensions have had robust requirements on smoke alarms for years. It makes sense to apply the same standards to existing houses surely?!
  24. I actually only learned of this yesterday. I hadn’t received any letters or noticed any advertisements etc. It was a friend that told me. The costs are minimal though - you can get battery operated smoke alarms that can communicate with one another for as little as £10-15. The requirements are not driven by the number of bedrooms, but rather kitchens, ‘main’ rooms you socialise in, rooms with fires, and/or top/bottom of stairs. So it’s a little subjective but most houses will just need 2 - 5 alarms which could be as little as £20 - 50.
  25. During the HPC pandemic rollercoaster I’ve argued all these points myself. I just hope inflation however is going to save us. It’s out of control.
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