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House Price Crash Forum

Pmax2020

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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. With the greatest of respect I think a lot of people forget the majority of homeowners have modest places they have a realistic chance of ‘owning’ well before retirement. I lost money on my first place but now own half of something that’s about 225k. I have a realistic chance of clearing the mortgage within 15 years though we are looking to upsize slightly. This is despite my wife and I having never earned particularly great wages! Other friends in their lates 30s have developed, extended and made nice family homes. I talk about property with friends regularly but I just don’t know anyone that’s bought something I felt was overly expensive or out with their means. As I keep saying, you can live really well for 200 - 250k in Scotland. Some wise moves and a renovation or two later, and you can live like a king with a modest mortgage (£750?) in something that’s 300 - 350k. With today’s rates, you could easily clear 8 or 9k off the outstanding each year before you even look at overpayments. Guys, property is pretty inexpensive outside Landan!!!!
  2. 53 houses sold in my town in August, last year 83 sold in the same month. So I wish lenders would spare us the “record breaking mortgage applications” propaganda. Winter is coming... let’s see how the nationwide spin the figures next month.... and the month after...
  3. My analysis was just me quickly scrolling through 25 pages and jotting down two columns of sold prices I then converted to percentages and averaged out. Far from accurate but shows how easy it is to show a very different trend. The 4 with massive 200-300% rises didn’t sell significantly above others in their respective streets. For example a flat bought for £27k in 2018 that sold for 85k recently in an area where good ones are normally go for 80-85k. Or an inexplicably low semi that sold 6 months later for a more fitting price (inherited?!). Within the first 2 pages of my towns recent sold prices (50 properties), you still have many areas yet to recover from the 2008 crash. These are almost exclusively older flats and ex local authority quarter villas but you have examples that have dropped 95k to 66k, 53k to 44k and 87k to 72k over a long 12-14 year period. There are many more that sold recently for a mix of +/- 5% over a 10 year period. So I just don’t buy these monthly stats. There are too many variables. I fully except the average sale price of properties is up this year but it’s not because the intrinsic value has gone up.
  4. Here’s my index for prices where I live in central Scotland. Over the last 12 months 625 properties appear in rightmove sold prices. Of them, 48 also sold in 2018 and I’ve used these properties to benchmark changes. I jotted down every % change for them but excluded 4 stratospheric rises (200-300%) where the initial purchase price was a fraction of comparable market valuations. The remaining 44 rose by an average of 5% over that 23 - 34 month period until now. Now just digest they figure for a minute... it will include a significant number of properties that haven been modernised or improved in a variety of ways. If you add the 4 mad sales then the figure goes from 5% to about 18%!!! This is why these monthly reports are nonsense. Until some sense of order is restored these figures are meaningless.
  5. These monthly reports are nonsense. They don’t represent ‘like for like’ sales and instead they are there purely to perpetuate confidence in HPI and encourage people to keep spending. You can make data represent whatever trend you want. I’ve checked sold prices religiously for over 10 years and a 5-7% rise in Scotland this year is utter nonsense. I’ve just watched a family member sell a great flat in the middle of Edinburgh for almost 10% below its valuation after a paltry number of viewers. The popular area where my parents live once saw buyers even opt for demolish existing houses to get those plots. Today, houses in better spots within that area remain on the market for less money!!! These monthly reports are purely showing that the median sold price is higher and there are very obvious reasons for that. Like for like, properties are down a minimum of 5% since March of this year.
  6. Is it possible the types/quantities of properties are skewing the figures? The areas in Scotland I keep an eye on seem to be stuttering. There are lots of reductions and the market is saturated with properties I’ve witnessed selling promptly prior to covid19. Perth is a good example as were contemplating moving there for a while. I watched prices of older properties edge up every couple of months over a 3-4 year period but today the picture is entirely different. There are about 15 older ones all stuck on the market and each with a story ie. been on for 2 years, others reduced and others pitched lower than historic prices. Pitcullen Cresent saw sold prices of £360k last year on a 'fixer upper'... now there are 5 or 6 all stuck on the market, some have been modernised and one has even been reduced to £320k recently and still with no takers. That's not consistent with these alleged increases.
  7. Unless you live within a short walk of your office, then I would imagine WFH represents a huge benefit financially and in terms of work/life balance. Every day I WFH I save £10 on fuel, £2-3 on lunch and about 2 hours in travel time. I can work a bit longer and get the odd chore done. It’s great.
  8. By crash I mean more than 20-25% drops. If prices fall 10% next year is it really a ‘crash’? They may recover that deficit the following year!
  9. So are we now in agreement there won’t be a crash!? I mean... we could experience a stagnant market when sales are down and we will see some properties sell notably lower than in recent years, but at the same time we see people ‘with money’ continuing to spend big on other properties. I do see a lot of properties near me in Scotland stuck on the market, but then every other day something above historic ceiling prices appears and sells instantly!!
  10. Another obvious reason for people ‘with money’ to move is the huge net savings from missing the annual family holiday and saving a fortune on fuel and childcare. I firmly believe the demograph of buyers will be skewed toward young families upsizing.
  11. Because beyond London and the south east property is very affordable and we’ve benefited from ridiculously low interest rates for a decade now. I remember paying £490 per month ‘interest only’ in 2007 on a flat bought with just 4K deposit. I sold it at a loss a couple of years later having saved another smallish deposit (15k) for the place we live in now. We’ve renovated the place throughout and find ourselves in 2020 with about 125k of equity and a baseline monthly mortgage figure that is less than the first place (albeit that voluntary overpayments take it to £700). I’m not even trying to boast because in all honesty we haven’t bought wisely but despite both earning less than the national average for much of our careers we find ourselves in a good position. I just get the impression a lot of 30 to 50 something couples are moving right now because of changes to the way we live, work and raise families. A 5-10% fall in values isn’t catastrophic when you’ve benefited from year upon year of rises. Especially with rates so low that I bet many couples can knock £500 - 1500 of equity off their mortgage each month.
  12. Rates have edged up a little this year. It may be that buying now with a 5 - 10 year fix offsets part of any 5 - 10% saving on the same house next year but with a higher interest rate.
  13. Up here in Scotland my wife and I actually only know two people that are impacted by job losses. A couple with a baby who were so worried about their position that they have sold their house and moved in with family. The guy lost his job early on and the wife was becoming increasingly worried about her job that they’ve sold up and moved in with one of the parents to wait it out. They bought about 10 years ago and it was an inexpensive place.
  14. Even Zoopla is showing drops of 5-10% for many places in the last 12 months!!! London is down 8% in the last year...
  15. That nationwide index is a sham. Everything I see before me shows prices are now faltering. The nationwide put my property down 7% last month.
  16. If you take Edinburgh, a third of ‘new’ listings over the 24 hours on rightmove are reductions. Sellers are definitely getting twitchy now as sales drop off. You can change location and see similar patterns elsewhere.
  17. Looking forward to this as they inexplicably dropped my area by 8% in September!!
  18. I thought that’s what you meant, except I didn’t say Scotland or the part I lived in was special. I just said property up here is inexpensive compared to the rest of the UK and Zooplas ‘average house price’ heat map shows that very well. Of all the couples I work and socialise with, I really can’t think of anybody that’s sitting in a house with a mortgage more than 2-3 times their income. With current rates, you’re talking as low as 10-15% of monthly take home salaries. I just don’t see there being the same price correction associated with your average family home in Scotland and the eye-wateringly expensive places that are prevalent in much of England. Average wages up here can’t be that far off the UK average, and yet house prices are considerably lower. That has to mean on average people in Scotland spend less on owning a home.
  19. I’d dearly love to see a crash but I fear we will just see a very stagnant market like 2008.
  20. For most your probably right. I’m just looking for a particular type of older property I can develop so it’s really difficult finding them in the limited areas that are viable commutes. I stand by my claim that average prices in Scotland won’t fall by more than 5% though. You can live in nice family homes in good areas for as little as 150k. Most places 250k gets you more than you’ll ever need.
  21. I agree with that. In the space of just 3 weeks the TSB have dropped their nationwide driven valuation on my house by 8%. How is that possible when they just reported a UK wide increase of 2%..... They are cooking the stats...
  22. I think many people on this forum lose sight of average prices across the UK as a whole, but I certainly agree buying in London or indeed any property that is priced toward the top end of its market would be mad. Equally I think purchasing in Edinburgh or Glasgow would be ill-advised right now as there are so many viable alternatives for less than half the price within a simple 30-45min commute. I firmly disagree though that in the main people are making a big mistake buying right now as I would repeat - take a look at average prices across the UK as a whole. If people have jobs in secure sectors with perhaps babies on the way etc then a potential short term 5-10% hit on a 100- 150k house could be a price worth paying. My advice would be to research historic prices of course and buy something you can improve/extend.
  23. There’s no reason to be worried about a crash up here in Scotland as property is far more affordable than the most of England. I think our cities will see up to 10-15% drops but I feel there will be a ripple of demand for surrounding areas that will counter any falls in neighbouring towns and villages. On average property won’t fall by more than 5%. I agree we are in for falls in property prices but the constant elitist view that all young people are ignorant, wasteful individuals that are on the brink of financial ruin is pretty tiresome. A short term fall of even 10% is a price worth paying to live your life, particularly if you have a family and a secure job.
  24. Hardly a rise really. I think the banks are just cashing in on the inexplicably high demand. I could see rates edging down again.
  25. We offered 15% over the asking 3 weeks ago and despite being the top bidder, it sold to someone in a ‘better position’. It was a big lump of a Victorian house in a good street and our offer was lower than a lot of historic prices. It was a fixer upper so was priced low. Gutted we missed out but confident another will come up.... I just fear we will have to wait 12-18 months on the next...
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