Pmax2020

5 year fixes falling from 4.5% to 4% isn’t going to result in house prices rising 1%, let alone 10-20%…

While I think rates will be cut next year, I think people are fundamentally poorer so I can only see price’s continuing to fall.

The crazy thing is seeing the odd house still go under offer at a crazy price. I guess some people haven’t got the memo.

Undeservingly filthy rich pensioners are propping the economy up. You know the ones, bought houses for 23k then downsized and cashed out 200-300k. Retired in their 50s or early 60s with pensions from a golden era. Pensions we’re all paying for. You know the insufferable pr*cks I’m talking about. They phone into LBC to tell young people they ought to stop buying £3 coffees in order to buy a home. I love my parents but they are delusional about how difficult it is nowadays. They don’t realise a mobile phone, Netflix and coffee are barely 1% of folks house hold incomes. Fast forward 30 years and both parents are having to work full time just to pay the bills….

If you were renting in an area like I describe, would you dump your rubbish in your garden? Would you toss your old furniture out onto the public pavement? Would you dry laundry by hanging it out your windows instead of on the washing line? Would you just let the grass grow 2 feet long?!

All of the above is utter bullocks. You’re condoning lazy, ignorant behaviour that sets a bad example to the young people in those neighbourhoods. The majority of people have cars or have friends / relatives that do. Yes it’s nuisance to take rubbish, particularly bulky items to a council tip, but what’s the alternative? Dump it in your front gardens or on the pavement?! Equally you can buy hedge cutters or a lawnmower for less than the cost of a night out. Is it too much to ask that you spend 30 minutes once every couple of months tidying your property up to help set a standard and teach your kids about responsibility and self-respect?! You’re comparing these areas to the super rich. That’s completely pointless. I’m comparing them to your average street or housing estate up and down the UK where people recognise that whether they own or rent, thru have a duty to maintain the community they live and work in. The horrible areas we all know of - it’s largely self-inflicted laziness, ignorance, and a failure to take responsibility and set a good standard for the kids in those communities. Trying to argue otherwise is to condemn these people to be stuck in these unpleasant areas forever more.

I respectfully disagree. Right now there are hundreds of couches and mattresses in the gardens of houses in my town. Almost all in the less desirable areas. Gardens a complete mess, bins overflowing, toys lying out in the street obstructing pavements. All skewing grossly toward the ‘poorer’ areas. Thats not because everyone else has maids and butlers…. It’s because these people generally have terrible attitudes towards their responsibility to keen their properties and neighbourhoods in good order. How long does it take to cut a hedge? Or drive your excess rubbish to the council tip? Nothing to do with wealth. It’s about self-respect and taking responsibility for the area you live in.

I’ll probably get to 1900 this year though admittedly that’s about 10-15% more than a typical year for me. 1000-1500 miles per annum however is pretty standard for most avid runners. 25-35 miles per week comprising of a longish 10-12 mile run at the weekends, after 4 or 5 small to medium sized runs mid week 🤷‍♂️ I’ve had a handful of weeks this year where I’ve ran 8 or 9 miles every lunch time while WFH 😉

The people living in the shitholes are the ones to blame where I live, and it’s probably true of most dumps in the UK. It’s self inflicted. Im out running about 2000 miles a year and I see it all. How come people living in the ‘poorer’, more socially deprived areas can’t be arsed cutting their grass or hedges? How come they just let their kids leave their bikes and scooters out on the streets? Places full of litter and dumped couches and mattresses?! I used to think it was about a lack of education or opportunity… but it’s ignorance and laziness. I really see no excuses for it. The majority of these people are able-bodied and have wages coming in. Contrast it to nicer areas where residents aren’t just inclined to pick up a piece of litter, they actively go out and litter pick because the council don’t bother anymore. People look after their homes. It doesn’t cost much to cut a hedge or take rubbish to the top rather than discard it in your front garden. It’s self inflicted. These rough areas could double the value of their homes if they just spent a weekend catching up on the chores everyone else takes responsibility for.

Prices will fall. There’s a huge backlog of unsold properties near me. Literally hundreds of houses circa 300-400k that have zero chance of selling for their current asking prices. Plenty of houses now pitched for 5% less than their 2021/2022 price… yet no chance of selling given where interest rates are now… Sales volumes in Scotland are significantly down too… so I even more pressure will be placed on sellers to drop prices as more and more properties continue to come onto the market.

I just see there being two facets to the correction. 1) A significant proportion of 2021/2022 buyers will make a substantial loss. I expect to see many examples of 30% falls when those 2-year fixes come to an end. A blood bath for thousands of muppets who paid over the odds. 2) For everyone else that bought pre-covid, I struggle to see falls greater than 10%. Search the sold prices in you local areas during 2012-2018 era… mean property values are not falling back to those levels. Not while wages continue to rocket.

I reckon we will see a rate cut shortly.

Let’s just say I clear £750 off my mortgage every month, whilst at the same time ‘losing’ £200 in interest on what I owe. I look at houses that represent 100-200k more of borrowing, and start to doubt if it’s worth the stress. My monthly outgoing/ overpayments would no longer be voluntary, they’d be mandatory. I’d go from ‘losing’ £200 in interest a month to £400-600. The wife and kids are happy, we live in a really nice house. Our mortgage is going down before our very eyes because we don’t owe much now and have a decent 5 year fix. So I look at bigger houses in better school catchments… but believe prices will only continue to edge down and at the moment I’m making headway on my existing mortgage. None of the houses I like are selling so I don’t see the rush. Many links to keenly priced houses I posted on here are still sitting unsold 6-12 months later…

I haven’t gotten lucky. In fact I lost money on my first home. The place I’m in now has been ‘paid for’ through me doing every inch of the house up myself over many years, and by overpaying the mortgage consistently for a decade. So it’s frankly laughable being told that if I were to move, my ‘gains’ would evaporate. You’re clueless. If me saying a further reduction of 20% on the types of houses I like in Scotland is clueless then hit the ignore button. I’ve consistently said there will be a reckoning for thousands of muppets who paid what they did in 2021/2022. I don’t however agree that a significant amount of buyers that pre-date this period are in any trouble at all. You’re failure to buy 10-20 years ago isn't our problem.

I don’t fear negative equity because I own a substantial percentage of my current home. Affordability isn’t an issue per se. Do I want to have a 200k mortgage in my 40s though?! Absolutely not! I’m overpaying my current mortgage at a decent pace. I’m also ploughing more money into my pension which is maybe me subconsciously admitting a house move is off the cards right now. I fundamentally believe prices will fall, but in Scotland I believe that to be no more than 10% on the types of properties I’m interested in. Sure, thousands of numpties will lose 50-100k on their 400-500k new build purchased in 2021/2022, but that’s a small percentage of the market. I feel I’m in a good spot and I don’t feel rushed into moving because the market is so stagnant.

Another example…. One next door sold for 412k in 2020. This one listed for 485k, defo won’t sell for that, but inconceivable it will ever sell for less than 400k… or probably 425k for that matter… https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/139300739

I based that 350-375k range on my observations over the last 15 years. It’s based on me having reviewed monthly sold data for over a decade for dozens of towns and cities in Scotland. I want to upsize, so I obviously want prices to fall. But I maintain that its inconceivable prices will revert to 2012 levels in Scotland. As @mynamehere points out, look at Scottish prices in relation to wages. Now consider how many homeowners have made killings on properties over the last 20-30 years. That equity isn’t disappearing. Take this house in Perth… you’re living on cuckoo land if you think that’s dropping 20%. It’s at a historically competitive price. Arguably 10% less than it would’ve sold instantly for in 2020/2021, but it will sell for that sort of money. No one’s getting those houses for 325-350k… not in Scotland… https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141096920

Some people seriously need to manage their expectations on what a housing crash will look like given current rates of inflation and wage growth. 99.99% of buyers over the last 20 years made the right decision in purchasing a home. Apart from a swathe of nutters that bought at mental prices during the last 1-2 years - most of which will never need to sell - the overwhelming majority of people will not be impacted by prices falling. The period homes in Scotland that I lust after were once typically 250-300k in 2012. While they may have crept up to 400-425k in recent years, it’s inconceivable they will ever fall below 350-375k again. I don’t doubt there will be outliers, but too many people have significant equity in their homes for a crash in affordable areas to occur.

The forum is broken. Ads now between every reply. When I try to post it just saying “saving” indefinitely…

In central Scotland I’d say it’s been a fairly typical October. Single digits over most nights, a handful nights where temps approaching zero, one harsh frost. So for us our heating has been on about 30-40 hours this month, thanks to our log burner doing the rest.

A house near me sold for less than its 2006 sold price!! I know I keep saying it, but nothing is selling. All the links to houses I posted months ago are still unsold. Every day another place comes up that’s akin to a 2018/2019 price and they don’t sell either…

I’ve virtually doubled my wage and my wife has upped her hours now the kids are at school… and yet our buying power has effectively fallen from 2020 till now. Back then I was eyeing up houses costing 350k. Yet in spite of our income going up markedly, I couldn’t see me buying something in excess of 375k. It’s too expensive and risky. The Aldi shop is hitting £120 a week now… it used to be about £70-80 on a really bad day! Everything costs more now. It’ll be so debilitating for people on lower wages.

Not sure about that. When I think back to social circles when I was at school, many mums didn’t work, certainly not full time. My mum didn’t, neither did several of the mums in the street I grew up in. I can recall some working part time as we got older. Today, every single mum I know works. Whether that’s colleagues, friends or acquaintances. Every single one works. A stay at home mum for kids older than 2-3 is frowned upon now. In fact I know lots of mums that only took 6-9 months maternity leave which is pretty appalling really.

Check this out…. the one next door sold for 417k in 2017… https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141096920 Offers over 385k seven years later….

+1 2 year fixes @ 2% will be back next year..