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Pmax2020

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Posts posted by Pmax2020

  1. 2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

    Just get a different card. 15k credit is an insane amount.

    When I was at uni in the very early naughties I went through lots of credit cards for the cashback and for ‘tarting’.

    For one of them I used to request a raise regularly and edged it up to about £12,000 while I was effectively a jobless student!!!

  2. 12 hours ago, Sprrite said:

    I think an interest rate rise to 1% won't affect existing homeowners too much as most of them will be on fixed rate mortgages. However it will slow the market down on the bottom end and make it more difficult for first time buyers and potentially even those looking to scale up as a higher deposit will be required.

    Will it lower prices? I don't think so considering the supply of housing is still too low with demand very high. I think at most it will stagnate prices but then again I don't have a crystal ball.

    The point is that fixes end all the time. I’d say most people take the cheaper 2 year fix so a significant proportion will be looking for a new rate every month. 

    A 1% rise will have a huge impact on prices - such is the mess our UK property market is in. 

  3. I think a 1% rise has a big enough impact on mortgage rates to perhaps dissuade someone from bidding 325k in favour of 310k or even 300k. 

    During spring 2020 we dismissed a property around the 350k mark but 18 months on the cost of that over a 5 year fix has come down over £100 per month. Partly because of clearing the existing mortgage but largely due to the typical 5 year rates edging down over that period. 

    So we’re an example of a family that will borrow according to the cost of the mortgage which is dependent on the rate. 

  4. 8 hours ago, markyh said:

    🤣 £25 a month. We had £312k mortgage, it is now down to £254k since 2016. We would just absorb the £25 and not blink, not that it affects us as we are on a 2.29% fix until June 2023 and now have £300k in the bank from Sale of assets. 

     

    The point I was making was that it was a low amount per 0.1% even if you owed £300k, but that it could mount up if the hike was higher. 

    ie. Your 1.89% 2 year fixed rate jumps up to the 3.5% variable rate and you can’t lock in again as you’re in negative equity or a poorer LTV banding. 

    That could be a crippling for some numpties that overstretch themselves. 

  5. 49 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

    Two technicalities to note here:

    1. All prices rises are instantaneous.  One minute a packet of something is £1.00, the next moment Tesco changes their central computer to £1.10 and it goes up 10%.  If the price hasn't changed for over a year that would be a 10% annual rise, or monthly rise, or weekly rise, or daily rise, or hourly rise depending upon the time period we check in.  So whilst I agree prices have recently risen a lot, they were not rising a lot 11 months ago so in an annual inflation rate that recent rise effectively = the whole annual rate.

    2. The RPI and CPI are just weighted averages of a bunch of stuff.  Probably no-one in Britain experiences the exact inflation rate of those weighted averages, because no-one will buy (for example) 1/7th of a new car or 1/20th of a new wardrobe.  Either you buy one or you don't.  But the weighted average has to have a little bit of everything in it.  If this year you didn't buy the things that have been flat or falling in price (and yes, there are some - my car insurance is way lower than last year, my breakdown cover unchanged etc etc) then of course your personal inflation rate could be 10% or 20% whilst the CPI is still not "wrong" for returning 3.1%

    I understand all of this and I appreciate that some feel it in their pockets far more than others. However the notion that this diverse basket of goods and services has only risen 3.1% over the last 12 months is absolute horse sh*t. 

    It’s incredibly easy to check what I paid for something 12 months ago and compare it to todays price. Take my broadband for starters. I signed up to 350M virgin broadband for £43 per month for 18 months last spring. Today it’s £56.

    Today we went to dobbies with the kids. The softplay is up 50% and limited to 1 hour. The coffees we bought are up 50%. The diesel for our car is up 15%. The food shop is easily up 7-10% and the wife just stuck the heating on which is up 30-40%. 

    Let’s pick something at random i bought last year. Ah yes, a bike seat for the wee boy. Thule ride along bike seat £78 from Amazon… is now £131. Not sure it’ll drop 40% on prime day but let’s watch this space. Amazon is actually the best place to laugh at the mess Brexit has caused. Almost every baby item we bought last year has gone up 50-100%.

    I just flogged the wee boys old change bag on eBay for more than we paid and we are turning a profit on some of the little girls old toys. Every cloud eh…

     

  6. 3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    But the food items has about 100 different things, and food itself is only 9% of the index, so has a relatively modest impact on the total figure anyway (one reason I sigh every time people say inflation must be 10%+ because their chicken nuggets cost more this week).

    But the majority of food stuffs have increased significantly more than the reported 3% and in a matter of months, not an entire year. 

    I’m really struggling to understand how anyone can believe inflation is that low. The cost of living has increased enormously in all areas of day to day life. My dad just sold a car he owned for 2 years for more than he paid. Meanwhile I’m looking at toys for the kids Christmas that have inexplicably doubled in price since summer. 

    I don’t need to convince anyone a 3 or 4% rise is BS - it’s those that are stupid enough to believe it that need to explain how the methodology is fit for purpose to arrive at that bogus value. 

    A two night mid-week caravan stay near me is £600 and some of you lot think inflation is only 3% year on year!!! 

  7. 23 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    Here are the weights of CPIH (the one that includes housing).  What exactly do you think is unrepresentative?  I agree that some people's housing and energy costs are rather more than 32.8%, but then equally some people's housing costs are virtually zero and this is an overall average, so can't be exactly right for everyone.

    CPIH Division  
    0.1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 8.9%
    0.2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 3.5%
    0.3 Clothing and footwear 5.9%
    0.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 32.8%
    0.5 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 4.9%
    0.6 Health 2.0%
    0.7 Transport 10.7%
    0.8 Communication 1.9%
    0.9 Recreation and culture 11.2%
    10. Education 3.0%
    11. Restaurants & hotels 6.9%
    12. Miscellaneous goods and services 8.3%
    Total 100.0%

    I’ve looked at each category previously in detail and I just don’t think it’s representative of the era we live in. (For some reason I’m having difficulty finding the raw data on their website right now!!).

    I just don’t think milk, eggs, bread and a 50p savers lasagne give an accurate  reflection of rises in the food shop. It’s obvious the reason the system hasn't developed to be more robust in its measure is so they can continue to report derisory 3% figures. 

  8. 1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    Well I'm pretty sure people on the bottom rungs who can only just about afford the cheapest place possible because prices are outrageous in their particular area would say exactly the same thing.

     

    Aside from London, what areas are you referring to?

    You can comfortably buy a 3 bed place for just 3 or 4x an average couples salary, almost anywhere in the UK. Or at least within a 30-45 minute commute of any job in the UK.

    Dont get me wrong, I’m clearly referring to areas that are less desirable but it’s a stepping stone while you accrue equity. 

  9. 4 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    It also wipes out the young kids who have scraped together everything to try to get a home for themselves and their families.

    Not much "social justice" in that.

    That depends.

    My wife and I waited til our early 30s to start a family once our careers were established and we had a decent amount of equity behind us. Our first property was the cheapest/smallest money could buy.

    I don’t sympathise young couples that’ve missed out a few rungs of the ladder and are sitting in big ‘executive’ new builds with horrendous LTVs. I’m not bitter, I’ve just spent many years staying put in houses while I saved/prepared for the next. 

    Yes, in an ideal world we could all afford to live in nice big family homes in our early 20s but for obvious reasons it can’t work that way.

    My wife and I are the best off we’ve ever been but still we refuse to upgrade in spite of friends doing so. We want to clear a bit more of the current mortgage and get the bank balance even higher.

    I know I sound self righteous but I’m just try to keep my family safe and secure. 

  10. 9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    I have had a Tesla Model S for 3 yrs now and have had to queue once for about 10mins. Mind you I have never used a non Tesla charger, you would have to be a real tightwad to want to queue up and go through the faff of using one for a few quids worth of free electricity.

    If you like most people rarely travel more than 200 miles in a day any modern EV should be fine, no need for a hybrid and if you regularly travel long distances get a Tesla.  A hybrid  is pretty pointless as after 30m you are back to driving a petrol car, one that is less efficient than the equivalent standard model.   

    I would give the ID4 a miss. My wife swapped her Model 3 for an ID3 earlier this year as the Tesla was a bit quick for my daughter who was learning to drive, and she wanted a hatchback. Although she only occasionally drives long distances, every long journey involved lots of hassle with charger queues, broken chargers and rip of pricing. She ordered a Model Y as soon as they were available on the website.  Fortunately she bought the ID3 when VW was hugely discounting them so will probably get back what she paid for it when it is sold at around 1yr old.   

     

    The problem is my mileage is very sporadic. I can go a few weeks without having to travel much at all, then have a week where I’m doing 200-300 miles a couple of days in a row.

    In Scotland there aren’t many rapid chargers in more rural areas when I need to got business trips, so it can be a nightmare!

  11. 3 hours ago, markyh said:

    No change in the fuel consumption of our EV's, go figure. 

    My EV is on the chopping block. I’m changing company shortly and I think I’ll go hybrid next.

    What do you have? The VW ID4 looks pretty cool but competition for the rapid charging points in Scotland has reached tipping point. In the last 12 months it seems every tariff-free charging point has a couple of Tesla’s queued up waiting to use them!! It’s a nightmare. 

    Might go for one of the hybrids that ticks the decent BIK boxes even though in practice they aren’t really economic. 530e looks nice but I’ve gotten used to driving the free electric car for over a year now…

  12. On 10/8/2021 at 12:14 PM, kzb said:

    52% apparently, plus another 30% from Norway pipeline which they class as very secure supply.

    Coupled with the fact this started in late summer when the weather was warm, and it has continued to be warm, I am struggling to see how it was a supply and demand issue.

    Coupled with the fact we had an incredibly mild spring/summer. Normally my wife sticks the heating on here abs there but not this summer!

  13. 17 hours ago, robson1111 said:

    A person earning£10/11 is not going to be buying a house.  

    A couple on £20k each could easily afford the £600-650 mortgage on a 200k house. Their combined take home would be about £2800!!

    I want a crash as much as most here but I often say the reality is that there is affordable housing up and down the country. Name an area that’s not in the far south and there’s plenty of places below on the market that are 100-150k.

    They might just be stepping stones but that’s how most homeowners start out. The first house I bought was 90k in 2006. It’s barely worth 120k 15 years later. If I had to, I’d live there again. 

  14. 13 hours ago, dugsbody said:

    Because they're regulated and will be fined a lot of money if they don't. And because the people who write the software which arrives at the figures will be tech people and the odds that every tech person passing in and out of the department responsible for it would just keep shtum about a bank publishing blatantly fudged data is implausible.

    How come their data varies so greatly to counts? I just think the methodology is open to huge interpretation.

    How come when I punch in various towns/cities in Scotland into the rightmove sold prices, a rise as low as 3 or 4% is given for prices since 2019?! 

    Perthshire - 6%, Midlothian - 9%, Glasgow - 8%, Fife - 4%. Where’s the 13% yoy?! Can’t find anywhere in Scotland with that.

    I can see many properties selling for a killing but I can also see many, many types of properties selling for very small, affordable rises compared with 2018/2019.

  15. 53 minutes ago, henry the king said:

    Yes they will somewhat. But I would still expect house prices to stay flat in nominal terms in 2022 even in the "best" scenario (for HPI people). Which will mean a 5% decline.

    But in a scenario where inflation takes off then rates will raise faster and it will cause nominal house price declines.

    Not everyone will benefit from higher wages and if inflation takes off then wage rises won't keep pace with inflation. Unions are too weak

    Also remember the current rises are due to a 1 time increase in savings as nobody could go on holiday or waste money going out.

    I agree with much of why you say. 

    We can’t underestimate how important a part these incredibly low interest rates have played in house prices, even over the last 18 months.

    In 2006 I put down 5% deposit on an 90k flat which cost £500 per month interest only!!!! A young person today could buy a 200k house with a 95% LTV that’s only £100-150 per month more as a REPAYMENT mortgage!!! Minimum wage has doubled since then. 

  16. 40 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    House prices just went up 1.7% MoM, £4400..

    So you are stating "there’s evidence prices are already falling", but the actual data suggests different.

    I can agree that through the colder months less properties sell, but there's no current drop or slow down.

    An incredibly small amount of people didn't pay 10-20% over... the money supply increased and that's the new price. Simples.

    I don’t believe the nationwide report the data accurately. Why would they? 

    I base my view on actual sold prices. I check them every month for various areas around Scotland and I can see 13% yoy rises that’s been touted about is ********. 

     

     

  17. 1 minute ago, Speed1987 said:

    Your perception is that they are overpriced...

    I feel they are fairly priced and the market agrees as people are paying for them.

    It isn’t that simple though.

    Just because an incredibly small number of people paid 10-15% over the asking price these last 18 months  doesn’t make their homes worth that figure. Fair enough if these prices sustain over 2 or 3 years, then you could argue that it’s a shift we’ll all face if we choose to move. I think there’s evidence prices are already falling however so I don’t accept that the figure some stupid people paid earlier this year is vindicated.

    People pay stupid prices for things every day in all walks of life.

    If prices hold then you can use the ‘market agrees’ line but they are already falling. 

     

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