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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. The point is that fixes end all the time. I’d say most people take the cheaper 2 year fix so a significant proportion will be looking for a new rate every month. A 1% rise will have a huge impact on prices - such is the mess our UK property market is in.
  2. I think a 1% rise has a big enough impact on mortgage rates to perhaps dissuade someone from bidding 325k in favour of 310k or even 300k. During spring 2020 we dismissed a property around the 350k mark but 18 months on the cost of that over a 5 year fix has come down over £100 per month. Partly because of clearing the existing mortgage but largely due to the typical 5 year rates edging down over that period. So we’re an example of a family that will borrow according to the cost of the mortgage which is dependent on the rate.
  3. Si1, gimmie your predictions on the base rate hitting 0.5% and dare I say it 1%?!?!
  4. The point I was making was that it was a low amount per 0.1% even if you owed £300k, but that it could mount up if the hike was higher. ie. Your 1.89% 2 year fixed rate jumps up to the 3.5% variable rate and you can’t lock in again as you’re in negative equity or a poorer LTV banding. That could be a crippling for some numpties that overstretch themselves.
  5. I understand all of this and I appreciate that some feel it in their pockets far more than others. However the notion that this diverse basket of goods and services has only risen 3.1% over the last 12 months is absolute horse sh*t. It’s incredibly easy to check what I paid for something 12 months ago and compare it to todays price. Take my broadband for starters. I signed up to 350M virgin broadband for £43 per month for 18 months last spring. Today it’s £56. Today we went to dobbies with the kids. The softplay is up 50% and limited to 1 hour. The coffees we bought are up 50%. The diesel for our car is up 15%. The food shop is easily up 7-10% and the wife just stuck the heating on which is up 30-40%. Let’s pick something at random i bought last year. Ah yes, a bike seat for the wee boy. Thule ride along bike seat £78 from Amazon… is now £131. Not sure it’ll drop 40% on prime day but let’s watch this space. Amazon is actually the best place to laugh at the mess Brexit has caused. Almost every baby item we bought last year has gone up 50-100%. I just flogged the wee boys old change bag on eBay for more than we paid and we are turning a profit on some of the little girls old toys. Every cloud eh…
  6. £25 a month if you owe 300k but it could soon mount up if typical fixed rates rise a percent or so.
  7. But the majority of food stuffs have increased significantly more than the reported 3% and in a matter of months, not an entire year. I’m really struggling to understand how anyone can believe inflation is that low. The cost of living has increased enormously in all areas of day to day life. My dad just sold a car he owned for 2 years for more than he paid. Meanwhile I’m looking at toys for the kids Christmas that have inexplicably doubled in price since summer. I don’t need to convince anyone a 3 or 4% rise is BS - it’s those that are stupid enough to believe it that need to explain how the methodology is fit for purpose to arrive at that bogus value. A two night mid-week caravan stay near me is £600 and some of you lot think inflation is only 3% year on year!!!
  8. I’ve looked at each category previously in detail and I just don’t think it’s representative of the era we live in. (For some reason I’m having difficulty finding the raw data on their website right now!!). I just don’t think milk, eggs, bread and a 50p savers lasagne give an accurate reflection of rises in the food shop. It’s obvious the reason the system hasn't developed to be more robust in its measure is so they can continue to report derisory 3% figures.
  9. I’ve been keeping Aldi receipts and within 2 months you can already see many items that have risen 5-10% in that time, veg and eggs for starters. The breaded chicken nuggets the kids like are up 20p to £1.69. There are just lots of 5, 10 & 20p increases on things that are only £1-2 within that very short time frame.
  10. Aside from London, what areas are you referring to? You can comfortably buy a 3 bed place for just 3 or 4x an average couples salary, almost anywhere in the UK. Or at least within a 30-45 minute commute of any job in the UK. Dont get me wrong, I’m clearly referring to areas that are less desirable but it’s a stepping stone while you accrue equity.
  11. Yes but the ‘basket’ of items it’s based on doesn’t reflect what it is to live in 2021. People don’t spend more than half their income on milk and bread but they do on housing and energy.
  12. One things for sure - whatever figure they report you could probably double it.
  13. That depends. My wife and I waited til our early 30s to start a family once our careers were established and we had a decent amount of equity behind us. Our first property was the cheapest/smallest money could buy. I don’t sympathise young couples that’ve missed out a few rungs of the ladder and are sitting in big ‘executive’ new builds with horrendous LTVs. I’m not bitter, I’ve just spent many years staying put in houses while I saved/prepared for the next. Yes, in an ideal world we could all afford to live in nice big family homes in our early 20s but for obvious reasons it can’t work that way. My wife and I are the best off we’ve ever been but still we refuse to upgrade in spite of friends doing so. We want to clear a bit more of the current mortgage and get the bank balance even higher. I know I sound self righteous but I’m just try to keep my family safe and secure.
  14. I was convinced we’d see a rise last month but Boris has the BoE in his pocket. I now think a 0.15 rise this year is unlikely, in fact I think a base rate of 0.5% by summer 2022 is also highly unlikely. There’s an agenda for high inflation. Let the masses think they are rolling in it while the boomers check out before the big economic crash.
  15. The problem is my mileage is very sporadic. I can go a few weeks without having to travel much at all, then have a week where I’m doing 200-300 miles a couple of days in a row. In Scotland there aren’t many rapid chargers in more rural areas when I need to got business trips, so it can be a nightmare!
  16. The 2013 Boston Marathon bombing is the most poorly executed false flag operation in history. It’s shambolic. A complete set-up, so badly executed that there’s been a massive censorship operation of the damning photos and videos that showed it to be a hoax.
  17. My EV is on the chopping block. I’m changing company shortly and I think I’ll go hybrid next. What do you have? The VW ID4 looks pretty cool but competition for the rapid charging points in Scotland has reached tipping point. In the last 12 months it seems every tariff-free charging point has a couple of Tesla’s queued up waiting to use them!! It’s a nightmare. Might go for one of the hybrids that ticks the decent BIK boxes even though in practice they aren’t really economic. 530e looks nice but I’ve gotten used to driving the free electric car for over a year now…
  18. Coupled with the fact we had an incredibly mild spring/summer. Normally my wife sticks the heating on here abs there but not this summer!
  19. A couple on £20k each could easily afford the £600-650 mortgage on a 200k house. Their combined take home would be about £2800!! I want a crash as much as most here but I often say the reality is that there is affordable housing up and down the country. Name an area that’s not in the far south and there’s plenty of places below on the market that are 100-150k. They might just be stepping stones but that’s how most homeowners start out. The first house I bought was 90k in 2006. It’s barely worth 120k 15 years later. If I had to, I’d live there again.
  20. How come their data varies so greatly to counts? I just think the methodology is open to huge interpretation. How come when I punch in various towns/cities in Scotland into the rightmove sold prices, a rise as low as 3 or 4% is given for prices since 2019?! Perthshire - 6%, Midlothian - 9%, Glasgow - 8%, Fife - 4%. Where’s the 13% yoy?! Can’t find anywhere in Scotland with that. I can see many properties selling for a killing but I can also see many, many types of properties selling for very small, affordable rises compared with 2018/2019.
  21. Because I could give lots of examples of houses they are barely up 10% over the last 3 years let alone 12 months.
  22. I agree with much of why you say. We can’t underestimate how important a part these incredibly low interest rates have played in house prices, even over the last 18 months. In 2006 I put down 5% deposit on an 90k flat which cost £500 per month interest only!!!! A young person today could buy a 200k house with a 95% LTV that’s only £100-150 per month more as a REPAYMENT mortgage!!! Minimum wage has doubled since then.
  23. I don’t believe the nationwide report the data accurately. Why would they? I base my view on actual sold prices. I check them every month for various areas around Scotland and I can see 13% yoy rises that’s been touted about is ********.
  24. It isn’t that simple though. Just because an incredibly small number of people paid 10-15% over the asking price these last 18 months doesn’t make their homes worth that figure. Fair enough if these prices sustain over 2 or 3 years, then you could argue that it’s a shift we’ll all face if we choose to move. I think there’s evidence prices are already falling however so I don’t accept that the figure some stupid people paid earlier this year is vindicated. People pay stupid prices for things every day in all walks of life. If prices hold then you can use the ‘market agrees’ line but they are already falling.
  25. I don’t think wage inflation will matter. Prices went up a notch as a result of the free money, government props and WFH movement that saves lots of families thousands a year. Prices have peaked and will erode/deflate over the next year now. You can already see that in the sold prices from July as well as general observations on rightmove etc. There are too many overpriced houses now stuck on the market now where I look. The sort that did sell for these daft prices 6-9 months ago. The games up.
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