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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. Hi Erat. Interesting questions? Here is my take on it. “How does this work?” You decide to leave a club, but they won’t let you go without some ridiculous ts &cs. You leave anyway and sign their form with no intention of ever agreeing to their rules. “Is there a secret international code of politicians and diplomats that they know these things are said for domestic tabloid consumption, and have no basis in actual policy and governence?” Yes, there is, but I do not think it applies here. “Or are these kinds of statements just straight up truths, and the government don't realise how duplicitous and untrustworthy it makes them look?” Yes, these are straight up truths. No, of course the government realise how untrustworthy it makes them look. “Or are foreign politicians and diplomats equally as duplicitous and untrustworthy so none of it matters?” Most of them, yes. The ones that aren’t are not stupid or surprised by this behaviour. “Or will there just be wars to enforce national ambitions?” Hopefully not, this sort of approach is called “diplomacy” and really is par for the course, sadly . “Genuine questions.” Genuine answers.
  2. I am with you on this Smash. What are the chances of the average British consumer noticing/feeling the advantages of an Australia trade deal? Close to zero.
  3. Still free I think for the commoners of that land. If they have sheep to feed and pigs to forage of course!
  4. Not sure how far back in time you are going Winkie. The general definition of “common land” as far as I am aware is that it is land owned by a landowner that they have provided access and rights to us commoners on. It was usually the least valuable land of the estate. Some, but by no means all, has some collective ownership over it now (for example National Trust). But, sadly, it never was owned by us collectively, even in pre-history.
  5. Personally, I'm in favour of far more free trade in the UK. My job is safe anyway so I'd quite like cheaper stuff even if it means killing off our local industries. It's what the people wanted. 👍. I think I am even less of a global free trade fan than you are dugs, but your post points out something I think many anti-Brexit people miss. Just like the Brexiteers could never see the advantages to being in the EU, even though they were obvious to me, so the anti-Brexiteers remain unable to see that the changes that are taking place now are obviously seen as beneficial by many. For every story of free trade and cheaper food, there is a story of lowering standards and U.K. industry at risk. For every story of less EU family pressures on school entries in primary schools, there is a story of poor treatment and a hostile environment for EU migrants entering the U.K. For me, Brexit is clearly a bad thing for Britain. For others this view seems crazy.
  6. This is why we need a non-rabid, progressive vision for Brexit, and soon. Come on Labour, Greens and all. Get with the program and accept that our future will be outside the EU. We need to shape this future to the best we can rather than just moan as we are sucked into the high seas of unregulated global free trade.
  7. Thank you Erat. i think I made it clear that i was referring to Tory MPs and others referring to “sovereignty of the U.K. post-Brexit”. If you want to avoid the “s-word” then perhaps “treaties involving unequal obligations or situations where the U.K. would be subjected to changes in regulations over which it had no say or representation” would be a better way to put it. However, this latter wording is both not a good sound bite, and also does not stir up those jingoistic Brexit salivatons!
  8. You can check out, but you can never leave. We all know that the EU and it’s negotiators were incredibly clear right from the beginning that any membership of the Customs Union or Single Market came with strings attached. Whether you accept this or not, the view of many people (certainly the majority of Tory Politicians) was that those strings did not recognise the U.K. as a sovereign nation post-exit. From very early on, Boris, for all his lying and dodging, made it abundantly clear that he could not agree to the U.K. being in any way subordinate to the EU. So we have ended up with this hard Brexit solution, and the problems we now see before us. In my view the developing situation of an enforced compromise was always the likely endgame. It simply represents the geopolitical realities on the ground. I am still hopeful that a grudging compromise will be reached before all trust and friendship is lost. But it is by no means a certainty...
  9. I agree completely with this. The fact we have Left the EU, single market and Customs Union is what is causing the current strains in Ireland (and elsewhere). It is how we, the EU, and the people’s of Ireland deal with the fallout that matters now. I think even your little englanders know that Brexit is the cause of the issues. I am certainly not trying to convince you that Brexit isn’t the problem. It is! What I am trying to get is some constructive dialogue on what we (and yes that includes keyboard jockeys like you and me as we do influence those around us) are going to do about it. Brexit has happened. Many thought that the clear contradictions between single market integrity and a hard Brexit (and adherence to the GFA) would stop it. But that was not the case. How do we find a compromise that stops the rot? Or do you think a compromise is simply not advisable or possible? In which case what do you think the consequences will be?
  10. Calling people who do not agree with your position “brainwashed” is not constructive dugs. The US statement is clearly designed to encourage both sides to calm it down and find a solution that keeps the peace. As discussed previously, the discussions on NIP are not over by a long chalk. The EU and U.K. (and the people of Eire and NI) are going to have to be flexible and pragmatic if a solution that provides for both integrity of the EU Single Market and integrity of the United Kingdom can be found. Anything else is (in my view) clearly against the Good Friday Agreement.
  11. I have never understood why the Conservatives especially are so keen to keep Scotland. Let Scotland go and they are virtually guaranteed to be in government in RumpUK forever. Add in all the money they would apparently save by not paying the Scots. So it's a win/win situation. The whole being more than the sum of its parts perhaps? As a Scottish descendent brought up in southern England and educated in the north, I can testify that all parts of the U.K. are different. That does not mean we will be better of without each other.
  12. My view: we are already doing things that would have led to exponential rise in cases without vaccination, and have been for weeks. So I think the vaccines are having an effect. But for a virus with Ro 3-4, then a combination of about 1/4 of us having had the disease and 1/2 of us having had a vaccine that is about 80% effective will still probably not be enough to stop R >1 if we unlock completely and remove all social distancing. We are going to get pockets of disease. So we will still need a working track and trace.
  13. The current incarnation of the Tories are smashing it in the polls because people think they are fiscally liberal and socially conservative. Corrected for you. Also, They are only “smashing it” in England. I believe this is because, while I might hold my nose and vote for politicians who think like dugsbody and Yelims, most traditional English Labour voters would not.
  14. Lisa Nandy? My view is that in England we have three parties essentially chasing the same 1/3 of voters: well educated, left-leaning, and socially liberal internationalists - The Greens, LibDems and Labour. These Parties need to merge or at least start cooperating. And at the same time we have not got any party representing those of us in the working class who find tradition, openness, fairness, integrity, and local society to be the most important aspects of our lives. Someone upthread mentioned conservative with a small c. This 1/3 of the voters have been Labour voters in the past, but they have been ignored (and derided) by the cosmopolitan London-centric leadership and now have nowhere to go (some even voting for Boris for reasons that I still struggle to understand). To get the two groups above to vote together is tough, but not impossible (take the SNP in Scotland perhaps?). Of course we also have the 1/3 of voters who just want their wives to have bigger breasts and have more chance of owning a BMW M3. But they are, I think, a lost cause.
  15. I can see your point in cities. For the rest of us parochials, the view that private cars are on their way out is what will be laughed at. You cannot run your life effectively using just (unreliable) public transport and the local (unreliable) taxi firm.
  16. The people of Hartlepool, and similar places. By supposed left-wing liberal Labour voters, mainly in London and SE who despise them and consider them xenophobic, thick and contemptible.
  17. Nearly 2:1 Conservative to Labour. Insulting your voting base was never going to be a successful strategy and has to stop if Labour are going to regain their (traditional) core voters.
  18. Possible positive outcomes? A Brexit-related drop in immigration to levels where inflows and outflows are similar and net population increase close to zero. Tax incentives (such as those recently put in place in Wales) to redistribute second homes and under-utilised property to those in need of shelter. A Japan-like drop in house prices down to affordable levels for the young as older home owners downsize / die off and four bedroom detached houses flood the market and are again available for young families to live in. A green revolution /recovery where the economy grows, but skies stay blue and forests green (except for the bluebells!). Britain is beautiful in the spring.
  19. Well, all this willy waggling about moral and intellectual superiority by europhile lefties will definitely get Brexit-voting, working class voters back into the fold, won’t it. “Caste out the beam in thine own eye” or something like that. I am still in the Vote Green camp. Although even here there are problems with delusions of moral superiority.
  20. I am sorry, but although it is true to a point that spread of virus has been more prevalent in the old and infirm at times during the pandemic, it is simply not the case that schools and colleges have been completely free from virus. I saw the increase in cases gathering in education in the autumn. I was involved in one of the mass asymptomatic testing clinics in January (school open for keyworker and vulnerable children) and we found a couple of cases in the first week and then nothing. I was involved again when all the students came back in March. Again, cases in the first week and then nothing. Much though it pains me to admit it, government pushing of these lateral flow devices has been useful in limiting outbreaks at schools and colleges on student return this spring, at least in my experience. I think this has contributed to our successful path out of lockdown and is one of the reasons for your data showing low case prevalence in the young.
  21. For me there are three things that explain the graph Monsieur. Firstly, debt in younger generations because of student fees (yes, LibDems we will never forget), lower starting salaries (relative to asset prices), and high rental costs in urban areas. This means, although just as hungry for wealth as the previous generations, millennials have had to wait longer before they can buy a piece of the pie. Secondly, economic decisions by boomer politicians made for boomer voters from Thatcher to present day. The current property supports, zIRP, Brexit and pension madness being the most obvious, but essentially all major economic decisions in my lifetime seem to be geared towards they grey and from the dynamic young. This means the pie is split unfairly and the old and wealthy are taking an ever larger, slice leaving less for the rest. Thirdly, (and I know I will get panned for this but I will say it anyway) uncontrolled and unplanned for immigration. There has been more “competition for resources” because of a combination of an increase in population and a lack of commensurate increase in resources such as housing, roads, money for schools, hospitals... This means that the pie is split more ways and so on average everyone gets a smaller slice. All three will now change as demographics and voting priorities change, but the damage for some is already done.
  22. I expect to see significant wealth transfer in the next 20 years as boomers die off /move into homes. Much of this will skip a generation and end up with the millennials. The “family home” will again have children in it at last.
  23. And that is your evidence for exaggerated nonsense and hysteria? You might be right for an empty casket at 600C but a human body usually burns for an hour or so at between 850 and 1250 C. Cast iron surrounds to crematoria retorts of refractory bricks might usually be expected to reach lower temperatures than this unless in continuous use. However, cast iron melting point is Iron, Cast 1127-1204 C So it is clear that some damage to casings by continuous use is possible.
  24. Agree it has been different here than in Japan so far. And I agree that housing (and land) are expensive in Japan: how could it not be in a well developed island with very limited viable land for development. However, Japan shows a fall in property prices at the same time as a fall in interest rates, proving that other factors do have an effect. Agree completely. Low Interest rates have been a huge factor in the global rise in hpi in almost all developed nations, I would even say the most important so far this century. Always possible for bias to creep in to my views, and into yours. However, inward migration and house price increases are, in my view, positively correlated globally, so there is at least some evidence to support that it has an effect, albeit perhaps less important an effect that the ZIRP being followed by developed nations.
  25. I agree with dugs and IMHAL that low interest rates have played a big part in how far the housing bubble inflates But Japan shows us that iamnumerate, insane and others are right that demand also matters. If there were enough houses to fulfil demand in The U.K. then house prices would fall. Japan teaches us this. Given the birth rate and current demographics, what happened in Japan from 1990 will happen in U.K. in our lifetimes in the absence of further mass net immigration.
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