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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. How odd. My expectation is that billions of people have had their faith in the establishment renewed by all of this, Not me.
  2. He is being disingenuous yet again EU offered a whole menu of options (insert famous Barnier staircase graph) UK decided to torch all bridges went for worst option possible because “f&@k business” and “let the bodies pile” Nope. Don’t rewrite history. The Barnier staircase was indeed there from the start and, combined with the small print, made it clear right from the beginning that leaving the political sphere of the EU with any form of intact trading relationship was essentially impossible. So we have the acrimonious split we are now seeing develop. If anything, the mistake of the Brexit-supporting politicians was the belief that we could retain a trading relationship with Europe whilst leaving EU political structures. Although, to be fair, they are still trying to achieve this goal and some form of rapprochement is still possible.
  3. Hallelujah. We got rid of the gas storage facility (which ensures base load) before we created an alternative. There may be an “Elon Musk” moment here, with someone stepping in to provide a battery storage facility by next autumn. Or of course we could go back in time and open up a new gas storage facility. With our current government, I would no if rule out the latter.
  4. Certainly our recent (last 50 years) societal changes seem to be going more the way of individualistic North America and less collectivist Europe and Asia. So perhaps our geopolitical and economic interests should follow? Personally, I still see our future as being a part of a collectivist Europe in some form, but I now realise how many of us do not.
  5. Well, as de Maistre (and Jefferson) said, “we get the government we deserve”. Or something similar. The last month of this thread has been repeated shouting of “na na na na naa” from “told you so” Remainers and “get over it” Brexiteers. Almost any piece of news has been distorted to support one viewpoint or the other (or frequently both). It is just like watching the worst excesses of exchanges in the House of Commons! The simple truth is that Brexit is causing disruption in so many ways. It was always going to, at least in the short term. Will it be worth it? Well, all of us who live in the U.K. will have to cross our (two) fingers and hope so.
  6. My understanding is that Emma Radicanu moved to the U.K. when she was 2. So unless you are talking genetics, I am going to have to respectfully disagree interesting point about lottery funding going to sports we have a good chance of getting medals in rather than sports people want to play though. We got 100 medals in Tokyo and that is great, but under 18 sport participAtion has actually dropped over the last 4 years with more inactive children and teenagers now than in 2017. Perhaps we should fund by participation rather than by chance of medal?
  7. The thing that gets me is that this is agreed policy. Even though we know it is crazy wrong. New nuclear should have made any use of coal unnecessary from about 5 years ago, but instead we will be burning coal (occasionally) and gas (continuously) for many years to come.
  8. A graph of correlated data. A piss take designed to mislead and annoy.
  9. It only plots some of the data (owing to a restricted lower bound).
  10. Indeed. And the way you presented the data in that graph was completely dishonest. if you made this graph, then shame on you. If you copied the graph from somewhere else without checking the source data then, still, shame on you.
  11. I agree this is not good news by any means - the concept of us destroying meat because we cannot get it to market is both abhorrent, and utterly crazy. However, even if this is more Brexit-related than Covid-related, it does show how significantly many of our low paying businesses were relying on cheap EE labour. Although, as I have stated many times, I did not vote for Brexit, I do see the potential for improved pay and conditions for agricultural workers, chefs and hospitality workers, care providers, delivery drivers etc. as a possible major benefit from Brexit. If we can convince the bosses to pay more rather than bray for cheap migrant labour of course... Undoubted likely side effect: more expensive goods and services and so inflation.
  12. Sorry IMHAL, but by playing the man and not the ball here it is you who are coming out of this badly. “It’s international law” does not provide any justification for people to decide to use traffickers to cross the channel from France to enter the U.K. in my view. And the estimates of unregistered recent immigrants to U.K. are about 1 million for 2017 in the most recent study (Pew institute confidence interval 800,000-1.2m) and anecdotally up to 2m. So, clearly some people are entering the country and then “running away”.
  13. There will not be another crash until immigration rates turns negative and real interest rates turn positive. See the BoE paper posted by dugsbody earlier in the thread. The immigration effect is important and affects elasticity, but the real interest rate appears to dominate. However, I believe demographics are also important. Lots of boomers in family homes will not be there in 5 years time... this will provide a lot of high quality housing to the market. The key point for me is that housing will always be “affordable” to the majority of people (yes, even your kids debtlessmanc) but the level you buy in The market, and the value for money you get, is definitely different for each generation. Value for money is probably worse now than it has been in living memory, or than it will be at almost any time in the future.
  14. Immigration, sovereignty, borders, society, laws, control. Apparently.
  15. instead of companies paying more wages just get cheap labour from the gov Yep. Government Props and cheats again, in order to avoid the underlying issue. This will in my view be the legacy of Brexit. The population finally points out to the elite that there is a serious problem (inequality of society), and the elite trying everything it can to avoid fixing it.
  16. You never know, it just might. I am more worried about the other problems that it will cause. Sorry, side effects.
  17. Well, I actually think the most important thing here is that a U.K. Green Party has finally got some influence at a National level rather than just locally. Next step is global influence, and then we may leave something off our children and grandchildren to enjoy.
  18. We wear masks for other people anon. I have been double jabbed and yet still wear masks in crowded places and when moving around in public indoors. I also do a lateral flow test whenever I meeting older people (80+). This is not for my own benefit, but because I realise I may catch and spread the virus despite my vaccinated status. Indeed I may be more likely to experience CoVid mildly or asymptomatically because I have been vaccinated. wht I will say is that I am no longer making decisions not to socialise or enjoy myself because of CoVid, just to mitigate the risks for others.
  19. A rigorous and well argued paper dugs, Many thanks for posting. 🙏 I take two things from this paper: 1. The continued unexpected drop in “risk-free” real interest rates can be used to accurately model the increasing house prices in the U.K. over the last 30 years, and indeed increases seen throughout the G7 and other developed nations. It is undoubtedly the primary driver of HPI in my mind. 2. There are factors that make the U.K. somewhat special, and have exacerbated the effects here. These include the government ”props” (changes to taxes and debt access etc. ), but also unusually low supply elasticity and high demand elasticity. The lack of supply elasticity could be ascribed to many things, but certainly Iamnumerate’s views on migration (and immigration) would fit here (to coin my mother-in-law “England is full up already”). Similarly, the increased demand elasticity term can be related to increased competition for resources. I found this quote from the Bank of England paper most supportive of iamnumerate’s side of the argument, and suggesting that these differences could explain why the U.K. has seen larger HPI than say USA or Canada. “This would suggest that, if UK elasticities were closer to values in other developed countries (i.e. the supply elasticity larger, the income elasticity smaller) and the decline in gilt yields a little smaller, the model predicts real house price growth would have amounted to 88%, (of which, 55% would have been due to income growth, and 40% due to the decline in the risk-free rate – with a small offsetting effect from changes in taxation). This contrasts with the 173% predicted when UK values are used”.
  20. Simplistic thinking perhaps? Just because an Afghan citizen does not support the Taliban does not mean they support or are open to Western Democracy.
  21. I took Winkie’s enigmatic (as always) post a different way Staff. over the last 20 years or so women have been free to work and choose their lifestyles, girls have been educated, poverty has become rarer, standards of living have improved, people have felt safe on the streets. Even if this is all temporarily lost, some of it may be remembered and restored in time. So no, I am not yet convinced that it was “all for nothing”.
  22. Yes, the often talked about Brexit disaster of the lack of Eastern European’s to pick our fruit, look after our old folk, tile our floors, drive our lorries, work in our nurseries, cook our burgers and pour our pints. Where will this lead? Higher prices? Probably. Higher pay for the workers? Possibly. Better conditions of employment? Maybe. Perhaps even careers for our less academically minded sons and daughters? You never know,,, it could just happen.
  23. Do we have to be so specific and sectarian? Can I just be Politician-sceptic?
  24. Just one reason that they will go down: It’s a bubble. And eventually they pop. it does not take 12-14 man years of work and materials to make a house. And therefore houses are not intrinsically worth 12-14x local salary.
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