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14stFlyer

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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. I deliberately wrote the above from my understanding of what the two sides are thinking, so I am not surprised you agreed with/liked one side and not the other! However, If you still do not recognise the EU role in this line of travel then my previous post failed. Yes, the EU will be changed by Brexit. Regardless of whether we have a deal or not. The question is how much. The harder the Brexit, the more the EU will have to change (in my view). It is not anyone’s fault. Yet.
  2. Yes. Seriously. This has been and continues to be a negotiation. you do not require things in a negotiation, you hope to achieve them through mutual agreement. Let’s look at the two sides. The U.K. negotiators have at every stage met a brick wall of inflexibility which has led inexorably to our current position of a harder and harder Brexit. All approaches have led to a barrier from the EU which is either incompatible with the perceived views of the electorate (e.g. freedom of movement, direct EXJ oversight) or integrity/sovereignty of U.K. so we move further and further down the path to hard Brexit / no deal. . The EU showed at the start what relationships it has with others and essentially asked the U.K. to pick one. The EU was completely open from the start about the obligations and strings that would come with each level of closeness of relationship, and also made it clear from the start that there would be no special case for the U.K. no cherry picking. However, each time the U.K. picked a relationship type, it tried to make the relationship compatible with the Brexit vote and retain its sovereignty by changing some of the key constraints. This to the EU was, and is, unacceptable. You could perhaps see it from the EU side in a different way. Perhaps as a fisherman (the EU) trying to catch a slippery fish (the U.K.) In their hands/nets. So. The fundamentals of both sides have not changed and the initial positions of both sides essentially remain. Compromise is still an option but will require movement from BOTH sides if it is to happen. I am still hopeful it will. Either in deal or no deal, the level of integration of U.K. and EU markets and on the island of Ireland make this a special case.
  3. Sadly, yes, some may use this to further polarise the country. Maybe you should complain about those who would do this and those screwing up the negotiations and the country's reputation, not trying to blame the EU? Can you not see the problem in your own position here NiP? Previously approved, accepted and checked standards have now been disapproved by EU negotiators in an attempt to put pressure on U.K. negotiators. This has screwed up the negotiations. I am not going to claim the U.K. response is anything but calamitous, but it is clear that the fudged WA agreed by both U.K. and EU is fundamentally incompatible with the type of hard Brexit that the EU has been encouraging by their posturing on the Single Market and Freedom of Movement. NI still remains the biggest hurdle to an agreement, and making moves to a harder Brexit (Seemingly encourAged by both sides) just makes this worse.
  4. Agree with all this 100% dugs. I just don’t agree With the “dumb Brexiter” labels that seem to come unerringly at the start and end of your posts. There will, sadly, have been some clever people looking at a way out of the WA based on compromised U.K. sovereignty. They may or may not think they can win a court battle, but they do know that it will likely last long enough to make the EU Negotiators think very hard before going down this route. To me, it is astonishing that the U.K. signed an agreement which only keeps U.K. integrity in the event that the EU says so. If we were listed at approved for third party food standards in April after all checks completed but have not been confirmed then I think it is clear that this is indeed being used as a negotiating tactic by the EU. So the lunatics have Either just seen this, or had it rubbed in their noses, and so pressed the escalation button and made it clear that they will break the WA if they are not confirmed approved for Food products and also happy with the level of oversight required by the Joint Committee. This way lies disaster. so I really do hope that a close deal can still be agreed despite the clearly worsening relations.
  5. Look dugs, you can call me a “fake remainer” as much as you like, and it will still be less than 1/10 of the times I am called a “Remoaner” by others. I stick by the above comment on the EU Actions (yes, and Those of U.K. opposition political parties) contributing to the crazy situation we are getting in to. I want some form of middle ground to reform so a deal can be struck. However, I am getting Less and less confident that this will occur, even though a no deal exit is clearly a disastrous result for both the U.K. and the EU. The Two reasons I am less confident Are as follows: 1. A deal relies on the Johnson government accepting their responsibilities (some chance). 2. A deal requires the EU to treat the U.K. as an independent third party state (some chance). So for @TheHowler, my most likely outcome is that we will not get a deal until after a period of no deal forces the EU to accept the fact of U.K. independence, and until after a new U.K. government is elected that is prepared to accept its responsibilities. yes, this could be 4 years, but my bet is with the amount of chit hitting the fan at present it will be less than this.
  6. Agreed. Except all the offered EU options all come with EU legal oversight which does not see the post-Brexit UK as a separate Nation State: “you can never leave” I agree. Norway would have been fine (although for me, staying in the EU would have been better). And this is where I am going to bring back in the role of LibDems and others in cutting out any possibility of middle ground in the previous U.K. parliament. Agreeing that a high level of integration with the EU (with a high level of obligations), early on might have allowed us to focus on the issue that is still there: how do we do a deal that returns the. U.K. to sovereign nation status, without compromising the EU structures and institutions. Having progressively less and less close alignment between the EU and U.K. by (perhaps unwittingly) encouraging a harder and harder Brexit has just made this critical issue worse.
  7. But the EU made it clear that this was not possible without the freedoms. Nope, notwithstanding the convincing arguments put forward by dugsbody and others, I am afraid the EU approach has definitely contributed to the trajectory we now find ourselves on. Indeed, just like the well meaning LibDems, Greens, SNP and even some Tory MPs before them, the EU seem determined to play smart and act dumb. Without the opportunity for a firm middle ground, we now find ourselves saddled with extreme positions. I just hope the EU have the sense not to take this to court.
  8. Agreed. Sadly. And here Is where I think the Johnson Government’s miscalculation may be. They cannot imagine that the EU will make a decision based upon ethical considerations over economics / financial considerations. But I am afraid I think they will, and that acrimonious no deal and significant financial damage to all is now a realistic outcome. I still hope for a compromise deal and a friendly handshake at the end though. Let’s hope that the EU are a little more twisted than you think they are, and the Johnson government is a little less twisted than you think they are!
  9. Ha! At the moment this lot are struggling to keep control of the territory they have currently got. This is more of a rearguard action than any form of an advance...
  10. I think I may understand why you do not see any deal space dugs. You do not imagine the EU agreeing to anything that is not in its economic interest. And I can see why you would think this, as you believe them to be in a strong negotiating position. I am not so sure. Sadly, my simple mind keeps coming back to the conundrum that was there right from the start: either there is a reasonable level of UK access to the single market, or there is a hard border in Ireland, or U.K. sovereignty is breached. Both the U.K. and EU remain Adamant that there will be no hard border in Ireland. To create such a border would be extremely politically damaging to both incumbents at the time regardless of the level of blame ascribed to each side. Both sides will be very keen to avoid this outcome. The EU are pushing the U.K. sovereignty lever in order to encourage the U.K. to commit to LPF and state aid controls. They seem to be putting the UK government in a corner where they either accept these controls from Brussels, or are forced to break Treaty / international law. However, it appears the U.K. will use all means it can (including breaking Treaty, using its sovereign integrity as an excuse?) to encourage the EU to allow a higher level of access with fewer controls than it would like. To do this, the U.K. looks like it will pass legislation making it clear how it will behave in the no deal scenario If successful, this approach will mean the U.K. is putting the EU in a Similar corner - do they end up policing a hard border in Ireland to stop the flow of trade and products, do they try to take a sovereign U.K. after no deal to some sort of untested and likely long winded international tribunal, or do they accept some sort of compromise on LPF and State aid provisions and allow the border to remain as it is? There is no doubt the negotiations are turning toxic, as both approaches are clearly coercive if looked at in detail. Personally I still hope that a pragmatic compromise can be found before all the Remaining bridges have been burned.
  11. To at least give the impression that the UK government are prepared to take the No Deal Option, recognising that in that instance we have to break the WA in order to retain any semblance of sovereignty in Northern Ireland. I think we are just seeing the hardball of negotiation tactics. EU is pointing out that UK sovereignty is already compromised in the event of No Deal through the WA. UK is essentially pointing out that the EU Single Market is already compromised in the event of No Deal through the WA. So please everyone, lets do a deal!
  12. I have not seen that, but I am sure they will in any case if they have not already. As I said above, I do not think it matters. The point is that the opportunity to do so is in the legislation signed (NI Protocol), hence the cornered animal comment.
  13. As far as I am aware, no one in the EU has yet denied the veracity of the alleged comments. But you are right. I definitely know one side is not trustworthy.
  14. It may indeed be a deliberately leaked lie, or it may actually be the case that the EU side of the Joint committee were strong arming in the discussions, and backed it up with a bit of loose talk around the cappucino machine, making it clear how far they could legally go in designating GB goods as "at risk of export to the Single Market". It does not matter in my view. The key point is that Boris's government are behaving like a dangerously scared, cornered chimpanzee escaped from the zoo... and perhaps that is what they are... Even then, there is a question of how the EU should proceed from here. Do they use the shot gun and hope to kill off the animal without further damage, or do they put a banana in its cage and hope they can box it up again? Edit: any reference to similarity between Boris and a chimpanzee is purely metaphorical.
  15. 👨‍👨‍👧‍👧 👩‍👩‍👦‍👦 👨‍👨‍👦‍👦 💨
  16. I guess they do not feel the need to comment when it is patently going so well for them? My concern for the situation grows daily. I remember having a discussion (not online) last time around when Boris’s Government broke the law (The lies about reason for proroguing parliament) and everyone was assuming this was the end for him. Not so. I suspect the same will happen this time, with many supporting his “British spunk” for standing up to the EU bully.
  17. Yes. This is my concern too. I see more and more vitriol against all sides, both in the real world, in the media, and on fora like this. Whatever the likes of dugsbody say, anti-EU, and (anti-remainer) feeling is growing in the general population, and I am worried by it. The narrative of our government will be compelling to the average Joe. - being refused sovereignty over our British fishing grounds -being unable to support our British Industry if we want and need to - having to take on workplace or product rules created in the future by the EU, enforced on us by the European Court of Justice These simplified stories will be repeated as the cause of no deal. These simplified stories will be believed across the U.K. unless some clear alternative is provided by the EU.
  18. There are as many people of your generation who did not vote for Thatcher, opposed the selling off of public utilities, are disgusted by the lack of council house provision and have generally been good eggs throughout their lives. it seems a shame to lump you all together.
  19. Sounds a little “I’m alright Jack” to me, but don’t worry, there will be a U.K. for you to return to if your nationalism gets too strong, or you fall out of love with the beer and ice cream!
  20. If that isn't the intention British negotiators are particularly useless Now who are the conspiracy theorists? i like to think that our negotiators are trying to get the best deal for Britain, that our Home Office is trying to be as caring as it can be to genuine asylum seekers and migrants whilst keeping us as safe as it can, and yes, that even de Pfeffel himself is doing what he thinks is right for the U.K. I do think he is doing a bloody awful job of it, mind.
  21. I am very concerned that you may be right NIP, but remember, it takes two sides to make a deal; it is not just our UkGov buffoons that are making this outcome less likely (in my view).
  22. I am pro-EU and Pro-UK. Given that the UK electorate have decided to leave the EU, I want a future of close cooperation and friendship between these two now separate entities.
  23. It has become a blame game even before we have an end point. There will be those who dominantly blame the EU for our break up. There will be those who dominantly blame successive UK governments. I blame both. There will be those who blame only the UK for the current impasse. There will be those that blame only the EU. I blame both. There will be those who will blame just one party for any future no deal, despite both parties showing current intransigence and brinkmanship. The key thing for me is that a sustainable win-win deal is still possible, and most of the economic and political fall out for both the Uk and EU can still be avoided if sense prevails. I just hope it does, but my confidence is waning the more I see the extreme and entrenched views and one sided narratives on sites like this.
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