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14stFlyer

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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. I believe you may have a different understanding of “immunity” in this context to mine CoVIs. The interesting thing about all the big international cities which appear to have had high levels of COVID-19 ( such as London, NewYork, Delhi etc) is both the high level of asymptomatic cases they have recorded During the pandemic (upto 40 or 60% quoted in some papers), and the relatively low Levels of seroprevalence that is seen after the pandemic has subsided (between 15 and 25%, even in hotspots). The presence of a degree of T cell response in some of the population (who can beat the virus in less than 7-10 days and so will not get an antibody response) is one explanation for these two at first sight surprising results. In contrast, it appears that Coronavirus has scythed right through populations which might be assumed to be less well acquainted with existing cold viruses and are showing few if any asymptomatic cases and after-the-fact seroprevalence in the 60-70 percent range expected by Susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) modelling of the type employed by Fergusson. A recent example of this is in Iquitos in the Amazon (Peru) where 71% seroprevalence has been reported (as yet not peer reviewed). In both cases, however, we may be approaching a level of herd resistance to further infection, at least in the short term. (avoiding the term immunity in case you require antibodies for this definition).
  2. There are very few, if any, scientists who believe that this virus will be eradicated from the global human population any time soon. It is more likely to become an endemic problem that we control (by public health measures), and treat (with increasing effectiveness, as treatments improve and successful vaccines become generally available and their use widespread). Also, I am concerned by the use of the phrase "between waves". There are thousands of new infections in Britain every day at present (although less than 1000 of these are actually found through testing) and we are still getting 70-odd dead every day. The virus is still very much out there so wave 1 is not yet over...
  3. Poor kids,, will they make the kids take the tests at random points? The test doesn't feel nice at all, poor little buggers Sweden didn't test the Kids! There is no intention of widespread use of PCR testing for pupils as far as I am aware. Only testing when identified through track and trace Of direct symptoms. I also do not believe that the whole year group will be tested when one Or more pupil testA positive, just sent home for a week or so.
  4. Only if you believe that there will be widespread infection in the student population. if you , like Grayphil, believe the disease is close to burn out, then there will be few if any cases by September, and the kids will all be fine and school back to a new normal.
  5. Will go into isolation if their child has Covid, but probably not if just sent home as part of the year group.
  6. There is no intention of Children observing social distancing from each other next month. The assumption (rightly or wrongly) is that keeping them in “Pods” of year groups, which go on lockdown if cases occur, will be enough to control any outbreaks.
  7. Indeed. Since none of us know the full extent of the effects of this virus, yet. Then it is best to aire on the side of caution. We will soon fimd out who is right and who is wrong when the second wave hits after schools open up in September. The measure being excess deaths. I agree, the caution being advised by SAGE is right for now, with a view to firmer decisions if the so called second waste is limited in size or non-existent.
  8. It is I think a question of whose eyesight is clearer. Is Grayphil an eight year old whose mate is stopping him from jumping of an 8m ledge that could kill him? Or is he a sixteen year old who can see a 4m drop that he can sort out no worries but is stopped from doing so by an overprotective parent? The recent Papers on immunity, T calls Response and the way Deaths graphs have behaved On opening up in Europe are showing us that the drop may not be as large as was originally envisaged in the Fergusson model.
  9. Depends on whether the effect of increased supply is greater than the increased demand caused by all that inheritance money. Yup. The long scale demographic drivers will be reversing in the next few years ( to a degree brought forwards by CoVid to this year) and so we can expect increased pressures for price falls. However, I do not agree with the comments that this must be gradual. Just like the spikes of price increases on the way up, there will be some cavernous drops ahead. it’s coming.
  10. We probably want to see the same future Dugs, where there is equality of opportunity and freedom for people throughout the free world. However, I recognise that to get there we need to ensure that we treat all people fairly, and leave no parts of our society behind. So yes, I do want elites (or perhaps better, some form of government/state) to intervene when it is clear that a (perhaps well intentioned) policy is having a detrimental effect on our society. I am afraid successive UK governments, and then the EU (despite Cameron's diplomatic attempts), failed to intervene / allow intrervention when it was needed.
  11. Wow! I do not see myself as a Brexiteer. Also, I certainly agree that I would rather individuals decide where they live rather than elites. I was just pointing out that the example of apparently preferring a system which benefits young elites from one European country over the life chances of less socially mobile citizens in another is not necessarily socially liberal and progressive... Polish statistics suggest a more ‘elite’ flow to the UK than to other countries. The UK census pictures a maturing settled population, still tending to occupy relatively lower skilled jobs but showing strong evidence of upward social mobility. http://www.ceemr.uw.edu.pl/vol-3-no-2-december-2014/articles/polish-emigration-uk-after-2004-why-did-so-many-come Centre for Migration Research, University of Warsaw
  12. I agree with almost all of this, but then there are a couple of inconsistencies that I think may explain why this Brexit process has been so polarising and anger inducing. One example might be behind your "fairness across all class bands" comment - I believe many Brexiteers would say that the migration of large numbers of well educated and relatively well off (in their donor nation) young people to the UK actually resulted in more unfairness in our society than less and could be seen as providing a pliant work force and economic growth (and asset value inflation) to the wealthy, whilst screwing the life chances of the less socially mobile. These Brexiteers were then told they were xenophobic or even racist, and stupid, for voting to limit this migration. Even worse they might have been branded "right wing" to the horror of themselves, their families, and their friends...
  13. I guess the last five pages of this thread have shown that we have become very divided on the migration issue, with entrenched views on both sides. I get the impression that both sides see their view as somehow “morally right” and I am not sure I can see why. There are obviously different groups that benefit in different ways by the changes, but I cannot see how this makes one side intrinsically right and one wrong. Am I alone in finding the polarised nature of this thread (and views more generally on immigration and Brexit) quite scary?
  14. That symptom is a new one on me! Agree with the rest or the post though. This site will retain its niche status, even as the HPC progresses.
  15. You are right. Woke up grumpy this morning and hate myself. Sorry to all.
  16. It is good to see the backlash against irresponsible government economic policies growing. It is clear to me that in my lifetime we have dominantly been led by hypocrites who have done things to the public finances that they would never have considered for their own. Future generations will pay for their profligacy and lack of integrity. i also find it interesting that some posters are linking irresponsible government finances with irresponsible banking finances and irresponsible personal finances. This chain of behaviours has got us to where we are with ludicrously high House prices and the resulting societal issues. Mind you, it also spawned this wonderful website, so not all bad!
  17. I am, like I think many of us on here are, getting frustrated by the whole Brexit conversation. We have (possibly deliberately) obtuse remainers constantly harping on about what the perceived benefits of Brexit are whilst claiming that Brexit has “already failed”. We have defensive Brexiteers saying we should move on but not yet willing to accept the social and economic consequences of the vote. For me, I think you have to look at the reasons why people voted Brexit in a more negative or protest vote manner to explain what the “benefits” will be. People voted for Brexit because of poor housing. A Perceived benefit will be less pressure on housing (especially social housing) stocks owing to fewer EU migrant families competing for them. People voted for Brexit because of poor education in their local comprehensive school. A perceived benefit will be smaller class sizes and fewer students with English as a second language and therefor improved schooling for their children. People voted for Brexit because their partners / children were unemployed or underemployed. A perceived benefit will be that the local sandwich shop will employ local kids rather than just advertise in Romania, if it ever opens again after CoVid. People voted for Brexit because they found it difficult to access health facilities, spending hours on benches, months on waiting lists, and not being able to access a dentist. a perceived benefit will be improved access to a less overwhelmed NHS in the future. People felt their communities we’re changing too quickly, with a loss of pubs, corner stores, cafes and parks no longer nice to visit because of the tents and rough sleepers A perceived benefit will be that some how we can return to the halcyon days of society that we apparently had in the 50’s Of course, none of these benefits, even if they truly exist, will be seen by the intellectual elite on here who live in their metropolitan, internationalist world Indeed all they will see is fewer business trips, less unearned income and drop in overall GDP.
  18. I completely agree, our political system is based on seats. And that means that a majority of voters might vote for something but get something else. Which appears to be what you're saying here. The majority of people voted for non brexit parties (your own admission) but because of how our political system works, they got a brexit party. Agree with dugs on this one. In my constituency there was just one Brexit Candidate vs 4 Serious Remain candidates. It is perhaps not surprising that the Brexit candidate won. But this is spilled milk that has gone off, congealed, gone mouldy, and been picked up on the bottom of a sock by now. Let’s move on shall we?
  19. Our current incarnation of BTL over the last 20 years or so has crossed that shaky line between one mans freedom to do what he wants, and another mans oppression. It is damaging our productive young people’s ability to create wealth and is therefore damaging our capitalist society. In my opinion only obviously.
  20. Exactly right. Denying people their own home so you can make a profit has, in my view, clear moral problems. I have not ever, and would not ever do it.
  21. It's utterly shocking that these basics still have to be repeatedly pointed out to the thickos. Like our Prime Minister? It seems clear to me that Boris is still trying to get a hard Brexit politically with no border and as close as possible to seamless trade with the single market. He will either act "dismayed" when he does not get it, or act "shocked" when he finds that this causes problems if he does manage to pull a fast one.
  22. The decisions of this government in loosening restrictions, stopping the daily CoVID briefing (and letting the likes of Cummings off the hook) have led directly to this sort of behaviour. Only time will tell if it results in significant additional loss of life, but it certainly looks risky from here...
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