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14stFlyer

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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. +1. Assuming there is a structure agreed to oversee that is not the ECJ we are just arguing over the chibblys now. Continuing delay causes continuing harm both to our economy and our future relationship.
  2. I see you are getting a bit of a pasting from the intelligentsia / global elite 24G24! Its a +1 from me for the above post. Smart, globe-trotting, liberal lefties are lovely people, but sadly are all too frequently distanced from the reality that most in the UK inhabit. There are reports that Brexit-voting low earners (especially in the N of England) will probably be worst affected by a no deal Brexit. This is not a good thing. Those on here who have suggested that they want to see a no deal simply to have these people's livelihoods damaged are not the nice people they may think they are. Are the constant "liar" callers really so confident they are on the "right" side of this? Perhaps they should not be so sure...
  3. Thanks Peter - Quotes Halstead's work on Dengue, and follow up work on tissue cultures for other viruses (including coronaviruses) as the origins for the concern. From the paper: “Most experts who look at it acknowledge the potential risk but don’t see compelling evidence for it in humans right now,” says James Crowe, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center. Lets leave it as unproven for now, but clearly something everyone is watching for.
  4. Do you have a reference for this Peter? I know about the Dengue cases (and there are a couple of other virus examples where use of a similar virus for vaccine had a detrimental effect on immune system for some patients), but I have only seen that some mild CoVid-19 cases (perhaps fought off with T Cell response / in less than 2 weeks) got a more serious (but not life threatening) case at a later date? Are there examples of deaths second time around?
  5. Thank you for posting this Peter - what a wonderfully enlightening chart. It suggests to me, among a number of things, the following two pieces of critical information: 1. Anyone who thinks that only 6% (or similar) of the UK population has encountered SARS-COV2 this year is clearly wrong. A much larger (but not accurately indicated by this chart) percentage of the population have been infected. 2. Anyone who thinks we can rely with 100% confidence on "Herd Immunity" to get us through this and provide protection for our elderly is clearly wrong. Seroprevalence appears to be short-lived, and a significant proportion who have had the disease already will probably have to go though some form of further infection response to rid themselves of the virus if they get it again. This is unlikley to be dangerous for them (as they will have some priming), but almost certainly does mean they will be able to carry and spread the disease.
  6. The days have gone down in the West, behind the hills into shadow. How did it come to this?
  7. Beware the beam IMHAL... In my view, the middle-ground majority have indeed been screwed by the hard Brexit we are now in the midst of, but they would be equally screwed by your mooted all-in EU federalist U turn....
  8. There was no support for no deal at the referendum. It was not even suggested as a realistic possibility. There is also no logical possibility of no deal now either. It is such a deleterious outcome for both U.K. and EU that any set of politicians who accepted it would have to be completely mad. To be clear that means BOTH sets of politicians would have to be completely mad as ALL sensible middle ground options are of benefit to both sides when compared to no deal. oh...
  9. There was no support for no deal at the referendum. It was not even suggested as a realistic possibility. There is also no logical possibility of no deal now either. It is such a deleterious outcome for both U.K. and EU that any set of politicians who accepted it would have to be completely mad. To be clear that means BOTH sets of politicians would have to be completely mad as ALL sensible middle ground options are of benefit to both sides when compared to no deal. oh...
  10. There was no support for no deal at the referendum. It was not even suggested as a realistic possibility. There is also no logical possibility of no deal now either. It is such a deleterious outcome for both U.K. and EU that any set of politicians who accepted it would have to be completely mad. To be clear that means BOTH sets of politicians would have to be completely mad as ALL sensible middle ground are of benefit to both sides when compared to no deal. oh...
  11. I stole this graph from Slawek up thread as I think it is instructive. To me it looks like a big spike in R for schools and colleges going back at the beginning of September, and a slightly smaller but more long lived one for Universities at the end of September. I think this fits with the idea that young people are driving spread despite many not getting notable disease themselves. I believe that forming new “bubbles” of peer contacts after lockdown and summer in family units has led to the rapid increases recently. Now these bubbles have been largely formed I would expect the number of cases to stabilise in the near future, until the next time for change at least! (half term? Or perhaps Christmas?).
  12. Yup. This is what happens if you contract out an absolutely vital service like CoVid testing / track and trace to a company that does not even have the rudimentary QA processes in place to check that a spreadsheet is not maxed out. Absolutely unbelievably poor.
  13. The extra privately run capacity at Universities, Colleges etc. Perhaps?
  14. Do you think that will help our chances of securing a close and trusting long term relationship?
  15. Only one Brexit candidate in each constituency vs at least 3 remain/second ref candidates in a First Past The Post System? madness I rest my case.
  16. Blaming those hoping to save us from oblivion for the actions of the ERG and May removing the middle ground is very bizzare and revisionist. Look NiP. I am very impressed by the Intellectual merit, Idealism, honesty, consistency and logic of arguments put forward by yourself, dugs and others. However, even you should be starting to realise that the idealistic and logical is not working for us here... Yes, the opportunity was there for remainders and soft brexiteers in the May parliament to get together to avoid this shit shower. In fact I think the opportunity was still there until the last election. In my constituency there were 5 Remain or second ref supporting candidates standing against just one Brexit Candidate. How the hell did supposedly clever people let This happen? I will continue to apportion a degree of responsibility for our current predicament to UK Remain politicians For the records, the Brexit candidate won.
  17. They are more engaged and better informed. It is not a case of being thick or ignorant. The modern world has left fewer Swiss people on the scrap heap. +1 I agree, more doing badly out of modern life and so more willing to take a step into the unknown because the current policies were not working for them. No one else to blame for this but the wilful disregard for a portion of U.K. society by successive U.K. governments.
  18. +1 again. Both “sides” of the issue in the House have failed to take opportunities for compromise, and there may now only be one more opportunity before no deal. However, and I know this will be controversial, I firmly believe With hindsight that the EU made that middle ground untenable by not recognising the sovereignty (third country status if you prefer an EU viewpoint) of the U.K. in all and any post-leave outcome.
  19. +1. The pragmatists have been screwed and, at least at present, the ideologues have control.
  20. OK. I accept that I misunderstood your post dugs. I also accept that at the time of the referendum (but probably less so now), one of the most obvious impositions on the U.K. from Brussels that was exacerbating Brexiter Sentiment was the migration of young people from Eastern Europe to the U.K. Lack of U.K. government control on Immigration was a “big thing” for a lot of reasons, but not least because it was the main feature of the renegotiation that Cameron had tried and failed to get from EU leaders over the preceding year. This failure was seen by many (Including me) as a clear example of the U.K. not being in control of its laws. It was not enough to stop me from voting Remain, even though I could see the problems it was causing. Now, however, I would say the top examples of U.K. laws being imposed from EU would include the issues of movement of goods in our internal market (and the removal of certification as an approved EU third country for agricultural products), and the likely inability for U.K. govt to intervene to assist struggling essential industries in Northern Ireland (high profile now given the uncertainties associated with COVID-induced lockdowns and limitations). Again, these are high profile now because they are being imposed from Brussels now.
  21. The way you have written this, your aunt primarily supported Brexit because she wanted U.K. laws to be Made in the U.K. One of these laws is to do with freedom of movement and access to U.K. benefits for EU migrants, clearly important to her, but not as important as the principle of U.K. sovereignty. Is this the image you wanted to portray, or have I misunderstood?
  22. Don’t worry, when this is all in the past and we have our no tariff FTA, the Bruges group will no doubt enjoy telling us “we told you so”. 😉
  23. I think we were all expecting this weren’t we ? So, schools and colleges have been back in England for 2-3 weeks, pretty much all the university students are now on campus, and all the old “bubbles” of family and friends close contacts over the Summer have now been replaced or are currently being replaced by new peer groups. I have no data to prove anything, but I am pretty confident that this is what has caused R to rise up above 1 again and result in the significant rise in cases, hospital admissions, and (just in the last day or two) deaths. however, these reorganisations of our society have now largely been completed. Does that mean that R will now return to 1 as we keep to our new bubbles? Let’s wait and see, but my hope is that rate of growth of cases will level off in the next week or so, and number of cases level during October. I am expecting a significant rise in deaths (to high 10s or low hundreds per day) before this levelling off passes through the infection-symptoms-deterioration-hospitalisation-death system.
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