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14stFlyer

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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. Like many previous posters, I am worried about the lack of adherence to the rules, and the damaging drop in sentiment with making an effort to constrain Coronavirus. I am especially worried as we now have a much clearer idea of timescale (the light at the end of the tunnel). I think we need to make the Tier system a clear and certain "carrot" for behaviour. With clear and certain rewards for progress made. For example Covid case rate <250 per 100,000 for two weeks running and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 3 and can go to the restaurants Covid case rate <100 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 2 and can go to the pubs Covid case rate <10 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 1 and can finally go round to a mates house This is the only way I can see to incentivise the behaviour we need to minimize death and disease this winter
  2. Democrat propaganda - focussing on insignificant things like typos rather than the quality substantive legal basis for the suits....perhaps....
  3. Clearly not. If the whole point of the EU was only about trade we would still be in it. And no. One of the few clearly expressed aims of Brexit was to remove trade barriers. Of course, a failed Brexit may end up with us having more barriers rather than fewer...?
  4. Do you not think the EU will need a deal with the U.K. eventually too? Whose reality are we talking about? Compromise will come. Let’s hope it is sooner rather than later.
  5. Internal U.K. checks (in my view) mean at least a degree of U.K. control. And the introduction of the IMB made it clear to all that that is how the Johnson government sees it too. The EU will have to trust the U.K. to do these checks(!) That is more trust than I have in our government so I can see why the SU are now focussing so much on governance for the agreements. Exactly. It may be that the world will recognise this as the U.K.s mess. It is a different matter expecting the world to support the EU if they impose border controls from afar. I cannot see this happening.
  6. If the EU will accept a copy-paste of these terms, then I am sure the U.K. will! The issue until now was that the EU negotiators were requiring more rigid controls, direct ECJ control, and forced U.K. dynamic alignment with SM standards into the future. Perhaps that had gone now? In which case maybe there will be an agreement in time for tea...
  7. Probably not, for a while at least. We cannot be seen to get a deal others might also wish to accept. Serious self harm, here we come.
  8. They are standard clauses within FTAs.. The issue isn't going away post January... Forced Dynamic alignment and direct Oversight by one side’s legal jurisdiction is not standard away from the EU as far as I am aware.
  9. I agree. The way these clauses are presented appears to be significantly more painful for the U.K. to accept, than they are beneficial to the EU in the real world. I think it is all coming down to that horrible word “optics”. It appears the EU is offering a Hobson’s choice, regardless of how close or distant the U.K. would like the future relationship to be. Any deal offered to the U.K. contains aspects that would be unacceptable/unattractive enough for other member states to never accept it (so there will be no further article 50s triggered). If the U.K. does not agree to one of these deals, serious self harm in the form of a no deal stand off awaits. From the U.K. side, any deal that is clearly unacceptable/unattractive to remaining EU members is also likely to be unacceptable to us. So we can only leave with serious self harm.
  10. I am impressed at how many have moved on. I am still at the anger / blame and perhaps bargaining stage.
  11. I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon. But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K. Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. “No, you cannot have a deal like Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law” “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters” ”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid” I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)
  12. Agreed. Disastrous for the U.K. But not only for the U.K. For the avoidance of any doubt in the uninitiated, I am a “remainer”.
  13. Yep, looks more likely by the day. And sadly, if direct ECJ control, future EU rule taking on level playing field controls over which we have no influence, and no respect of U.K. sovereign fishing rights are cited as the reasons for no deal, he will get a lot of electoral support. It looks to me as if the EU negotiators/leadership are going down a disastrous route here.
  14. I Agree Erat. Although that is in my view because the EU has not been offering the U.K. any viable options. Every option presented, right from full CU to skinny trade deal has come with strings attached. and when those strings have been looked at in detail they have proven impossible for the U.K. government to accept. We have very little time left now for these games and must look forwards. it is clearly better for U.K. to accept a tariff-free free trade agreement over a no deal bun fight of unknown duration. it is also clearly better for the EU to accept a free trade agreement than face a no deal bun fight of unknown duration. The U.K. has to accept that this FTA comes with safety precautions (such as level playing field requirements and limitations on the use of State Aid) to protect the EU single market. The EU has to accept that this FTA cannot have strings attached that in any way compromise the integrity or independence of the U.K. Both sides must trust the other and continue to work together on the huge number of issues (such as shared security, NI, shared fishing stocks etc.) where there is clearly mutual benefit in cooperation. I for one will not be cheering Boris or Ursula if no deal is signed.
  15. I kind of understand why you want to be completely mortgage free to start with, but tend to agree with dugs that there does not appear to be any significant financial advantage in doing so at present. Indeed, probably the opposite. Certainly I would advise (not financial!) against taking a gift or loan from a family friend instead of a small loan if there is any chance that taking it could later detrimentally affect the friendship... Show them the £345k in the bank and see what the response is.
  16. The UK is not self-sufficient in its food stocks...A quarter of it is imported from the EU, and that largely consists of fruit and veg. Any delays at ports makes this our supplies "very interesting".. I am not sure what the EU strategy is likely to be in the case of No Deal. Do you really think a “starve them out” approach could be contemplated? Surely that will just lead inexorably to long lasting hatred and a complete breakdown in relations? It certainly will only further polarise views in the U.K. This is in neither parties best interests. An agreed political solution is still (and will remain) the only conscionable way forwards for both sides. The longer the U.K. and EU fail to agree, the more damage (of all types and to all sides) will be done.
  17. Refferring to a link here about a proposed cull of Mink. This zoonotic virus may demand more than just a human toll; further known unknowns. I am going to play devils advocate with Zuzwang here (always dangerous!). Whilst there is no doubt in my mind that the eradication approach to Covid 19 was the optimal approach for the UK initially, now I am not so sure. It is clear from recent research papers that there are reservoirs of virus in places like the U.K. and US (and presumably all other countries where the virus has spread significantly) that will be both long-lasting, and difficult to find, such that even a prolonged and hard lockdown will be unlikely to get us to be indigenous Covid-free. Just in the last 24 hours we have seen comment on this thread on examples of asymptomatic humans harbouring the virus for over 70 days, and virus in mink and cat populations. In my view, it is going to be really tough to eradicate this now-endemic virus without prolonged use of an effective vaccine. It is therefore not clear to me that an eradication strategy is the right one. “If I were you, I would not start from here”!
  18. Here is a slightly idealistic explanation. The smartest Young people from around the country (and from Europe and elsewhere too) come to London to work together and create value for themselves and others. Their combined enterprise is a perfect example of teamwork where the sum of their combined work is greater than the parts. As a result, their wealth increases more rapidly than that of young people who did not move to London. Some of these people return to their county/country of origin for a wealthy retirement. I believe there is a phrase for this form or migration, and London and SE is called an “Escalator Region”.
  19. I agree with you dugs. It is astonishing that normal people in the US and U.K. are voting against their better judgement, best interests, and (in my view) moral values and supporting people like Trump and Johnson. In the U.K. we have the former “Red Wall” voters, and in the US, Low paid workers in the likes of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Phoenix, Arizona. I can only explain their support for their natural enemies by pointing out that previous leaders who should have been improving their lives (like Blair in the U.K. and Obama in the US) have sold them down the river in favour of Bankers and the global liberal elite.
  20. Yep. That’s the Antisemitism we are talking about in a nutshell.
  21. Assets (e.g. a nice new car? Yes please! 1km2 of land? Yes please! A nice 4 bed detached house? Yes please! A beautiful Lorenzo Quinn Sculpture for the Living room? Mmmm! A Sapphire and Diamond ring to tell the wife/lover I care? Nice! Some portion of a bitcoin? Well, ok... as long as I am confident I can sell it for more than I buy it for. The point I am trying to make is that other Wealth stores have a kind of Societal / evolutionary reason for being there. I just cannot see this for bitcoin at the moment - it has more of a “want it to have value to screw the born wealthy” feel to it to me. Coiners will have to convince the sheeple (including me) that BTC are aspirational for it to go much further as a wealth store, in my poorly educated views of course..
  22. I am a yes if kids are on the cards. All hands to the pump and you each do what you can
  23. And yet one of the papers you presented in your previous post (Iceland) suggested an IFR of 0.3 or less... There is still some uncertainty out there on seroprevalence, number of infections, and infection fatality rate, I think.
  24. Ah. But how many of these 9% remain immune to reinfection if they can no longer be identified as seropositive?
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