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14stFlyer

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Posts posted by 14stFlyer

  1. 44 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

    Don't people keep on top of the news - people in Afghanistan are starving to death. If you want a recruiting poster for radicals the west standing idly by is a pretty big one - for reference children being sold to help fund keeping their siblings alive and babies starving to death in overcrowded hospitals, where the staff are working unpaid trying to keep them alive

    Damned if we do.  Damned if we don’t. 
     

    So, the previous interventionist approach in Afghanistan radicalised extremists.  

    The “do nothing” approach and failing to help the Afghans clearly in urgent need will radicalise extremists. 
     

    And I have no doubt that if we provide support for the people of Afghanistan remotely (while under Taliban rule) that will also radicalise extremists. 
     

    I agree with a lot of what you say Staff, but do not accept you (or the West in general) yet have the answers. 

  2. 5 hours ago, kzb said:

    I'm not even sure you can do a degree in Climate Science.  If you can it's a very recent invention.

    You could do a degree in ecological and environmental science (which included a section on atmosphere and climate)  at the university I went to.  And that was last century. 

  3. 5 hours ago, kzb said:

    Let's just say I am scientifically qualified, which is one step up on the leader of the Green Party (English),

    Carla Denyer, leader of Green Party of England and Wales, has a Mechanical Engineering Degree from Durham University, and experience working as an engineer for a Wind Energy Company. 
     

    You are right to say she is not a climate scientist.  However, I suspect you are wrong to say she is less of a climate scientist than you are. 

  4. 3 hours ago, pig said:

    But I now understand - correct me if I'm wrong -  is that you are therefore agreeing with @zugzwang that NZ has saved thousands of lives and improved health outcomes of its population by vaccinating its population before opening up but that more will die compared to if it locked down its borders forever.

    I can understand and agree with this if this is what you meant anonguest.  
     

    What I could not agree with is the idea that all the susceptibles at high risk of death or serious disease from CoVid in New Zealand were somehow inevitably going to be found and killed off. That has not even happened here in the U.K. (despite the “best efforts” of our dithering government). 

    The future levels of CoVid in a population  are controlled by the current level of infection and the R Factor. The R Factor is influenced  by the number of people who have had the disease already and the number who have been vaccinated (both of which lower your chance of catching the disease), and the social and hygiene behaviours of those who are susceptible to catching the disease, and of those who have actually got it.
     

    Given the low level of cases in NZ right now, and the relatively high level of vaccination, I would suggest that old and infirm people in the U.K. remain at higher risk than their equivalents in NZ.  For now at least. 

  5. 6 minutes ago, anonguest said:

    Therefore, now that they have acknowledged that they have no choice but to open up their borders, EVEN IF all NZ'ers were 100% fully vaxxed yesterday they will now be seeing cases and deaths in numbers inexorably rise. It is as inevitable as the Sun will set in the West this evening.

    Nope. Not inevitable at all. Depends upon the level of immunity in the population, controls like social distancing, the hygiene and attitude of the population and a host of other things. 
     

    An equivalent level of deaths in NZ to those already seen in the U.K. and USA is by no means certain. And in my view is actually pretty unlikely.  
     

    So NZ politicians perhaps not irrational?      🤔 

  6. 8 hours ago, dannyf said:

     

    Genuine question, why does nobody ever critique the energy consumption of other industries or products, like Netflix, but it’s such a common target for criticising bitcoin. Why do you think this criticism is almost unique to bitcoin?

     

    Because Bitcoin mining is just a moneymaking scam and does not in any way increase the wealth and happiness of humankind. 
     

    I may not watch Netflix myself, but understand that it is valuable as a source of entertainment to many. 

  7. 12 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

    Marr demolished BJ. He came across as a blithering idiot.

    I think Marr came across badly too tbh. He just did not seem to accept that BJ could simply do a Pontius Pilate on this and wash his hands of all responsibility. 
     

    I mean, get with the programme guys. We have a prime minister here who is lambasting businesses and management for their poor treatment of staff over the last 20 years, and telling them to improve the pay and conditions of their workers!   Instead of supporting this brave man in his quest to level up, you evil globalists and so-called liberal elites are showing your true colours. 😜

  8. 7 minutes ago, henry the king said:
    On 9/30/2021 at 8:43 PM, steve99 said:

    There will never be nominal falls. A HPC will 100% never happen. The best we can hope for is a period of static prices with wages increase/inflation

    I could not disagree more.
     

    We are still following the demographics.  All the boomers in their big houses are going to go into sheltered flats or, in the end, leave feet first. So there will be room at the top.

    We have run out of room to go lower on interest rates. With -2% real interest rates presently we are either going to see increased rates going forward to counter price and wage inflation, or go through massive asset wealth destruction over the next few years.

    Leaving the EU may result in more controlled levels of immigration.  Although I would not hold my breath for this, and we may instead see an upsurge in immigration again as Britain remains an “escalator” for ambitious young people wanting higher wages and an access to more global opportunities.  But I see this as a secondary effect that cannot compete with the first two.  

    And props and bribes are going to be political suicide in the break economics of the post-CoVid era. 

    The altered direction of travel of real interest rates, combined with the inevitability of demographics, will eventually affect perceptions of future housing values. I just do not know when. 

  9. 2 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

    Anyone know when children learn about mRNA in school, by the way?

    Not at all for the vast majority of students.
     

    You have to wait for the A level biology curriculum for the details.  DNA is in the GCSE curriculum, and there is a brief mention of how DNA codes for proteins through a process involving messenger RNA  in some specs of GCSE Biology triple scienc.  
     

    So, at a push you might say a select few below the ages of 17-18 have any level of informed consent.  But then you could also claim the level of informed consent in the general adult population is just dropping with age as their education gets more and more out of date.   

  10. 2 hours ago, miguel said:
    3 hours ago, Casual-observer said:

    You are utterly deluded. The idea that Tory Brexshters give a fck about fishing or HGV drivers is pathetic. They ditched the fishing industry pronto.

    Worth pointing out that you are no doubt correct that the Tory government do not give a fck, but you are also no doubt wrong about some of the Brexit supporting people who voted Tory in the last election. 
     

    We need these people back. And supporting HGV drivers and fisheries is part of the way to do this. 

  11. 8 hours ago, IMHAL said:

    As for Labour taking us back in...politics works by harnessing the popular vote, no more and no less. When there is pain then politicians and the public mood will change. Given the current trajectory...it will not be too long before there is a mood swing.

    Oh, I don’t know IMHAL. I think BJ and his spin machine can manage to convince at least a portion of the voters that this “pain” is “good for them” and showing the “fundamental changes to our society and economy” that are taking place. Or some similar bullsh1t. They are, after all, good at something.  

  12. I like the car and other depreciating stuff analogy.
     

    Let’s say I have lived in a house for about 10 years.  Let’s say it is  rentable at £1500 per month (family sized home). 10x12x1500. = £180,000. 
     

    So after 10 years I should expect the house to have lost £180k in value….  Making it essentially free after another 10 years?. 
     

    Sorry, does not work. 

  13. I am really enjoying having my kids around at the minute. Not the visceral on the breast stuff - they are just great fun to be with.  A bit like the dog, but more so.  I guess I have made the ethical decision that the world is a better place with them in it, despite the fact they are using some of Earth’s limited resources.  
     

    Mind you, there will be a significant economic benefit for me when they leave… and I will get my Saturdays and Sundays back!

  14. 5 hours ago, zugzwang said:

    Another national lockdown, probably in the two weeks before Xmas, will seal the deal.

    I really do hope you are wrong. And actually I am quite optimistic that we can keep things under control.
     

    However, with about half the teenage and early 20s population still to get the disease, It is going to involve a lot of hard work and disruption for many in schools,  colleges and universities to keep a lid on it.  

  15. 5 hours ago, zugzwang said:

    The accidental escape theory is also bunkum.

    Virologist involvement seems more likely than wild bat-to-local human transmission to me I am afraid.
     

    The first human cases turned up in Wuhan, some 1000 or so miles away from the bat caves on the China-Laos border where the ancestor viruses are supposed to have come from.  The Wuhan market is MUCH closer to the WIV than to the caves. To me, this suggests at least some form of transfer by virologists, either by picking up the disease on fieldwork when collecting the bat viruses and bringing them back, or by later release of stored samples. 

  16. 12 hours ago, yelims said:
    12 hours ago, slawek said:

     

    He is being disingenuous yet again EU offered a whole menu of options (insert famous Barnier staircase graph) UK decided to torch all bridges went for worst option possible because “f&@k business” and “let the bodies pile”

    Nope. Don’t rewrite history. The Barnier staircase was indeed there from the start and, combined with the small print, made it clear right from the beginning that leaving the political sphere of the EU with any form of intact trading relationship was essentially impossible. So we have the acrimonious split we are now seeing develop. 
     

    If anything, the mistake of the Brexit-supporting politicians was the belief that we could retain a trading relationship with Europe whilst leaving EU political structures. Although, to be fair, they are still trying to achieve this goal and some form of rapprochement is still possible. 

  17. 8 hours ago, Ballyk said:

    Then we will also see a big increase in battery storage to balance the grid.

    Hallelujah. 

    We got rid of the gas storage facility (which ensures base load) before we created an alternative.  There may be an “Elon Musk” moment here, with someone stepping in to provide a battery storage facility by next autumn. Or of course we could go back in time and open up a new gas storage facility.

    With our current government, I would no if rule out the latter. 

  18. 11 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    His take is that the UK will end up in NAFTA.

    Certainly our recent (last 50 years) societal changes seem to be going more the way of individualistic North America and less collectivist Europe and Asia.  So perhaps our geopolitical and economic interests should follow?  
     

    Personally, I still see our future as being a part of a collectivist Europe in some form, but I now realise how many of us do not. 

  19. Well, as de Maistre (and Jefferson) said, “we get the government we deserve”. Or something similar. 
     

    The last month of this thread has been repeated shouting of “na na na na naa” from “told you so” Remainers and “get over it” Brexiteers. Almost any piece of news has been distorted to support one viewpoint or the other (or frequently both).  It is just like watching the worst excesses of exchanges in the House of Commons!  
     

    The simple truth is that Brexit is causing disruption in so many ways. It was always going to, at least in the short term. Will it be worth it?  Well, all of us who live in the U.K. will have to cross our (two) fingers and hope so.  

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