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House Price Crash Forum

Martin_JD

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Posts posted by Martin_JD

  1.  

    Then what's the meaning of e.g. "90% ltv products"? Lot's of people think "I've got to save up a 10% deposit". Within that framing £30k is 10% of £300K and £45k is 10% of £450k. If it's nothing like that why do so many people think it is? Maybe not that linear but likely to make a difference to the amount banks lend on average.

    You're confusing a couple of different things here.

    LTV - loan to value is how much cash you need to borrow vs the price of the house you're loaning the money to buy.  The bigger your deposit, the less you need to borrow.  

    The headline amount a bank is willing to loan to you is a multiple of your salary.  

     

  2.  

    The poster who said those buying in the 500k segment will just shrug off the SD holiday do not understand the whole gearing of deposit issue that has had a huge impact on that price range. People who previously had to put aside 15k cash from any deposit they had to pay SD, were suddenly able to get 3-4 times that extra in cheap debt. It wasn’t just 15k extra they could spend, but 60k.

    Having said that, if they underwrite 95% with government money, the market will go up even if they withdraw SD.

    Your "gearing" explanation doesn't make sense.  Just because someone has saved a few grand on SD dosn't mean that the mortgage co will lend them more cash, it just means they'll have that money as a deposit.  The amount the bank lends isn't a multiple of your deposit.   

  3.  

    I'm going 5% positive growth. 90% lending coming back online through multiple banks, plenty of demand, interest rates will remain low leading to continued good affordability, life will return to normal in the next 6 months, the economy will recover and a few hundred quid a year in extra tax isn't going to make most of the middle classes lose any sleep. Brexit I think will pass largely without a whimper. The stamp duty holiday may or may not be extended but won't impact on many buyers who are below threshold anyway. Those looking at the half million pound end of the market will probably mostly shrug and go ah well, would have been nice but whatever. 

    Yup, I would agree with this prediction. Pretty much spot on.  

  4.  

    Agree with you completely. There doesn’t seem to be the same level of scrutiny asked of the 101 threads a week saying things like I’ve noticed lots more demand for storage recently or my mate is struggling to sell his house and Gary down the pub has just had his mortgage refused therefore there’s a huge crash coming. 
     

    I think there are a lot of people with a lot of money chomping at the bit to go mental over the coming months. I’m one of them - probably putting 15k on a new kitchen this weekend. 

    Absolutely. It's human nature isn't it.  After a period of enforced lock down, people are likely to go nuts.  Myself included, cant wait to go on a blow out holiday, just as soon as it's safe to do so.  

    Best of luck with the new kitchen, I hope you enjoy it.  

  5.  

    Is this statement actually founded in any theoretical or practical basis, preferably cited?

    Look at the demand in the housing market pushing prices up.  Look at people crowding beeches during summer, or shops packed over the weekend, or the pub across the road from me in Edinburgh with a que of people streching around the block waiting for a pint in the cold.  Look at the insane demand for consumer items like the PS5.  The evidence is all around you.

     

     

  6. Thinking about consumer sentiment - people seem to be chomping at the bit to consume, to by stuff, to drink, to go on holiday etc.  I think there will certainly be a big V shaped recovery, assuming the vaccines do their job.  People just want to get on with life, and I think some may also be more up for living for the here and now when it comes to big purchase, houses, cars, family holidays etc.     Let the good times roll!

  7.  

    Yup you're right - a couple of months back he had made 20k in oil shares alone, and was saying that summer 2020 was the peak of the market, all downhill from here. He's not going to share anything with you as it would ruin the fantasy life he leads on here. 

    It would be amusing apart from the fact that people may take this guys "insight" seriously, delaying purchasing for years, which may ultimately mean they're priced out of the market.

  8.  

    The majority of the UK populace are idiots who think that an expensive and ever rising price of shelter is a good thing and should be celebrated.

    Perhaps the majority of the UK populace who have bought a house are just getting on with their lives & enjoying their homes, rather than sitting on here for years on end being all salty.  

  9.  

    In the UK, stagflation.

    I think HM Govt & BoE will push on the strings harder than ever.

    Financial Times: Bank of England divisions on economic outlook revealed by MPC member

    There is a reason why in the history of money negative interest rates don't feature prominently.

    Yup, stragflation.  Despite that, house prices will continue to rise as the government does something to prop up first time buyers lending, some kind of 95% mortgage scheme.  

     

    People are eager to spend money, so certain industries will bounce back quickly imo.

  10.  

    Previous 2 years there was a marked slow down between October and Jan followed by a small rise between Jan and April.

     

    image.png.09141591ce92ca0a4fc3ed1ed839ca02.png

    So yes, this is expected that's why I was so shocked at last months jump, it was well out of place.

    I think we were always on for a Boris bounce this year but what happened is truly crazy.

    Looking at the price band stats shows something interesting.

    In most areas < £500K are seeing price drops in each price band ( < 100, 100->200K etc ) but over than not so much.  Top end average price gone up but that could be a few less expensive sales going though and the really top end stuff skewing that price range.

    Still can't explain last months figures, I ran several checks and it looked legit.

    Anyway, as I said in my last thread, I've resigned myself to the status quo for the duration and have given up on buying a house, but will happily continue with this index so I'll be back in Jan with the latest quarterly index, fingers crossed for a big fall and we could see London go into double digit decline !!!

    My oil shares have earned enough now to cover my rent for the next decade, but hey, you can't lose on property.

     

     

     

    lol.  Your oil shares.  Would you care to share your positions with us?  Also, didn't you call the top of the market a couple of months back?  

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