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House Price Crash Forum

Martin_JD

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Posts posted by Martin_JD

  1. 3 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

    You are the problem. Yours and the millions like you who have complete intolerance of all views that don’t align with yours is the source of so much ill today. It is (collective) you and your arrogance that pushed so many from the centre and created Trump. Your conceit that only you are able to think correctly and that anyone who deviates from that position is a “Mail reading idiot”. In my life I have adopted positions both left and right on different issues, but you...you are incapable of nuance, empathy or reasoned thinking. You are the disease at the heart of our society that was once tolerant and pleasant. You will reap the whirlwind you sow.

    This Daily Mail is a toxic rag. 

     

    mail-2014.png

  2. Just now, markyh said:

    The UK isn't the whole internet, you have the world at fingertips, that will happily do business with you. Bitmex , based in Mexico, doesn't even do KYC i believe.  Also you have Bybit and several others, cant remember all their names, crypto Youtubers are always shilling them with offers. I don't trade or bet though, just long term investing for me, 8 years in Crypto now, not 1 "trade".  Buy and HODL. 

    Any issues use a VPN. 

    What price did you buy in at, if you dont mind me asking?

  3. 5 minutes ago, Money Frugality said:

    I'm short on Tesla.. Cant short bitcoin in the UK anymore.. The logical emotion underpinning Bitcoin is the same that underpins Tesla.. Regardless of intrinsic value in either.. If I shorted Bitcoin when I decided to short Tesla I'd of been cashing that in right now; in and out in that volatility.. 

    Its not the perception of the coin or the value of Tesla I'm shorting here, its the psych being perpetuated.. 

    The money tree isn't about saving jobs.. If that were the case we wouldn't be in a lockdown for a few sniffles and coughs..

    Covid is a bit more then sniffles and coughs....

  4. 6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Current asking prices, it's pretty explanatory.

    It's pretty spot on compare to the other metrics saying prices have gone up 7%

    Not sure what metric you're talking about but we are all ears.

    I'm not sure how useful this information is.  Take for instance the south east. Many properties go for over asking, and also lots of Estate agents put houses on for wild over valuations just to win an instruction.

    The real data is what stuff ends up actully selling for in the land registry, not the price on rightmove, which is more often then not above or below the agreed sale price.  This might explain why your graphs are out of kilter with other metrics used to gauge HPI.

  5. 3 minutes ago, 12345 said:

    Not sure if I'm reading this incorrectly, but how do you reconcile the national YoY increase of 8.5% with the regional YoY increases which are nowhere near this with the exception of the North East?

    I was also trying to work this out - especially for the South East?

  6.  

    Depends. Sensible, financially aware people can do as they please but there seems to be a feckless group of spenders who exist (all generations) who just don’t have a clue. 

    They may buy new sofas every 3 years and change kitchens (rather than having them painted with new beautiful handles for 10% of the cost) then they can carry on moaning about not having enough money and how hard life is financially. However when they do the same with a home the difference can be become absolutely material to their whole existence, indeed enough to not be able to get on with their lives. 

    We bought well at 18 and very well at 22.... the were (and the second still is) great homes but I knew would set us up for life. The 80’s and 90’s were a different time so it was easier but there are many at the time who bought badly either at the wrong time or just overpaid....the difference was I was mortgage free at 30 and was in a position to leave work at 40. Then starting ‘developing and people farming’ and retired a couple of years ago at 50.

    Many at that time in the 1980,s and 1990’s or who even went before me are still working.....and that’s fine but they won’t stop blo0dy moaning on about money and how hard it’s all been. 

    It’s harder nowadays but the difference is even more pronounced. I also think the opportunity to buy well is even more obvious and it wasn’t Sept 2020. 

    I won’t advocate ‘buy with just your heart’ if that decision means you then need to work (and be very very unhappy working) for another 10 years of your life. For me every purchase is a decision about time not money....and just because I can afford something now doesn’t mean if I challenge myself that I really want or need it. 

    I guess I am challenging just how badly some people make significant decisions, how they actually like to spend eg a house nicely decorated and nice blinds and get that buzz....... then moan about not having money when they have just thrown away £40/50/60/70/80k on a careless spend. If they are happy fair enough but many are not. 

    It’s a big purchase....and houses just vary so much in price for no real material differential.

    Hey, why am I complaining? This is how I have made my wealth during my 30’s and early 40’s.... buying unattractive houses and spending £10k then some numb nuts paying £60k more because they like the kitchen and bathroom I put in. 

    You are definitely right though about headline falls (and rises) in that they hide all sorts beneath. 

    Interesting post, and fair play for being able to retire at 40 - i'm that age and cant see myself retiring until 70!

  7.  

    Houses aren’t investments but let’s not pretend making a bad decision and a good decision doesn’t make a huge difference to the rest of your life. 

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reality a bit more nuanced than this. 

    The headline figures of say "20%" drop in 2008/9 really don't tell us much about what was actually happening on the ground. 

    It may well be that crappy new build estates and city center flats plunged 50% - where as well looked after period properties in desirable uni towns didn't drop much at all, due to supply and demand.

    No two houses are identical, valuing a house tends to be a heart vs head calculation as a buyer/seller.

     

    tl;dr buy a nice house, one which you can afford and be happy in it and get on with your life.

  8.  

    SDLT won't cause a crash, putting it back on will take some of the forth out of the market but people will adjust - its just not that much in the grand scheme of things. 

    Even for the max impact person buying a house for £500k dead its £15k to find. Some will. Some will find £10k and not put in a new kitchen this year. £5k hit for seller. 

    Some will only find £5k and the person above will take a £10k hit. Etc. Its not crash ville. 

     

    When you are in a chain and things happen people tend to find solutions. Not just habitually collapse the chain. The thing happening can be worse than SDLT being reapplied and solutions sought. To so such an extent, it's not unheard of for top seller in the chain to buy the first rung just to make it happen. 

     

    Exactly.  £15K is nack all in the grand scheme of things. Physiologically it meant that people brought there plans forward, so there may be a lull afterwards, but I certainly I dont see any crash off the back of it.  If there is a general slow down the goverment will start backing 95% mortgages, they'll be waiting to see how it plays out first IMO. 

  9.  

    Overall, I expect UK house prices to be higher this time next year. 

    As ever, monitor your chosen market like a hawk. And if you see value, don't dither. There is still value to be found, but it doesn't hang around. There may be a lull straight after the SD discount ends, that may be a good spot, but you would need to be ready for it ducks in a row beforehand. 

    A semi needing full reno on my street sold for 1.3 in May this year (it's on land reg). They haven't touched it or moved in but if they put it to market today I could guarantee they'd get 1.5. And it would still be good value. 

     

    This is the best advice in the thread.  There is still value, and if you can afford it go for it. 

    I see a lull in the market once the stamp holiday ends, but overall prices will continue to creep up as the fundamentals remain - historically low interest rates and a lack of good housing stock.

  10. i understand the theory.  In terms of a coin flip - it's a 50/50 chance of heads or tails, and the next coin flip is also 50/50 - because the two events arn't linked.

    But here's what i don't understand - if you flip a coin 1000 - you'd be more likely to see a mix of heads and tails, rather then all heads - so how does that fit in with the theory? 

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