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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Martin_JD

  1. The thing is you can't extrapolate what's happening in your local search to the entire market - there are differences all over the place, i'm sure prices in some dead end Northern towns will fall, but expecting a uniform price drop across the board is wishful thinking imo.
  2. You can't really short "the housing market" as it's a nebulas entity. You can short components of the market itself though, as you've already alluded too. As with any short selling, there is a high element of risk involved - markets don't always behave in ways which are at all predictable, and 9/10 it's private investors who get shafted, rather than the professionals who will always have the upper hand.
  3. When you say the economy has" collapsed" what do you mean exactly? Talk of economic collapse sounds hyperbolic to me.
  4. I'm not sure what you are referring to here, the article is about lenders now starting to re-open there mortgage books, not absolute figures.
  5. I think you're absolutely correct. The mid to upper end of the Edinburgh market which we are looking at is similar. For all the people having a hard time right now, millions of people are really doing quite nicely out of this crisis and they will be the ones continuing to buy. A large escalation in forced repossessions, a drying up of lending, and an increase in interest rates are the things that will cause prices to drop. Given government/bank support to borrowers and liquidity at present, and the Bank of England's policy, I can't see any of these happening any time soon.
  6. A bounce upwards due you pent up demand, essentially a continuation of what we where seeing before lockdown in areas where the market was "hot".
  7. More mortgage deals are coming back onto the market, I suspect we may well see a bounce in activity and price levels once transactions start taking place again.
  8. I'm interested to know what you would have done differently?
  9. The market was crazy just prior to lockdown - stuff we where bidding on going for 20% over home value report. I suspect it's gonna be very much bisness as usual at the upper end of the market. Not sure about city center flats, i can't see them dropping much. I think the main thing that will hold prices up is the blind bidding system here - it's gonna be very hard for people to how much less to bid in a falling market.
  10. Yep, agree with your points, epically about people reevaluating inner city living. Perhaps drops in city centre rabbit hutches, new builds in crap towns, maybe corrections in some of the less salubrious London boroughs.
  11. Unlikely I would say as with government and bank support against repossessions there will be very few forced sales coming onto the market which has been a key criteria in any other housing downturn. In any case with interest rates as they are people can always drop down to interest only mortgages only for a couple of years to get them through any difficult times, and that's after a 3 month payment holiday if needed. There are still plenty of people who have steady incomes even after this lockdown. Plenty of cash buyers too as usual. Sadly also plenty of inheritance payments that will no doubt need to be spent. The only thing that would change anything is if interest rates rise significantly - then you may be right and values will head downwards, but until that happens I would not hold your breath.
  12. You realise i'm talking specifically about the local situation in Edinburgh right?
  13. Then i'm affraid you are living in a dream world! Not gonna happen.
  14. I do, yes, do you need some help with your understanding?
  15. Trust me, there are plenty of people queuing out of the door and around the block at viewings in this city. Are all of these people going to suddenly disappear?
  16. Neither of those graphs help to explain how you figure an "economic paradigm coming to an end". Would you care to elaborate on your theory?
  17. I would be shocked if your average AirBnB spiv decided that they would pay business rates without being forced to do so. My guess is very few to none of them do.
  18. Fair point. I don't particularly want to see 70,000 people loose their jobs, but as you say the line needs to br drawn somewhere. From what i've read it would seem the business is unable to secure a private loan, hence his letter.
  19. If Virgin Atlantic needs a government loan at commercial rates to save jobs and Branson is willing to put up his home as part of the collateral, why not just do it? It seems that easyjet has already had a similar cash injection.
  20. Do you have any evidence to support your claim? Besides, it's not just people working in "FIRE" jobs who are wealthy and looking to buy in Edinburgh. It could be any type of professional couple with well payed jobs, and by well paid i don't mean mega money, i'm talking a combined income of say 100k.
  21. I can tell you that the upper end of the market in Edinburgh was red hot before the lockdown, with quality houses in good locations going for around 20% over asking price. The amount of bids on these places was in double figures usually. There are far more wealthy people than houses available in this city, i just don't seem all of these people suddenly losing their jobs, some might, but there's a fundamental supply problem in this area of the market.
  22. Surely if no one is selling/buying prices price discovery becomes very difficult, so the market will just stay frozen where it is price wise? I can't see any big changes in pricing until the market picks up and price discovery resumes.
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