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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Martin_JD

  1. "If" Most people are smart enough not to stretch themselves to the limit, and there are actually more rigorous checks in place now when getting a mortgage than in the past. Regarding your comment on the risk of a 25 year mortgage, only you can answer that one for yourself.
  2. Agreed, i think this is a fairly likely outcome, and one that isn't going to please most people here.
  3. "Those families" ?? The vast majority of people with a mortgage just want a home to live in, they aren't gambling and exposing their loved ones to risk, quite the opposite in fact. Most people who get a mortgage are able to successfully pay it off. There is always an element of risk with any major finical decision, but for vast majority the risk is calculated and pays off in the end.
  4. I reckon a dip before price stagnation for the next few years is likely.
  5. Prices on 3/4 bed houses in Edinburgh dont seem to be dropping, yet. I still dont see a crash happening in this city, still alot of houses going to closing date so demand still seems to be there, at least for the time being.
  6. Exactly. You get the impression some here are itching for armageddon! Live will get back to normal, slowly.
  7. Good news this. People shouldn't be made homeless, some of the people complaining here sound ghoulish.
  8. Yup. Absolutely this. Unless interest rates start to climb it's gonna be business as usual.
  9. You make a valid point regarding the AirBnB and BTL properties - I suspect the tax changes on BTL will have an ongoing effect. I do think there is a acute supply problem in Edinburgh though, particularly with houses towards the mid to upper end of the market.
  10. 20 years is indeed small fry in the evolution of things, you're quite right. However, it's actually a long period of time in terms of the average adult life span, which is important and the reason why posters like Si come across as salty. They realise that they've wasted a couple of decades waiting for a crash that never came, meaning they priced out and could off actually paid the mortgage off by now.
  11. Erm, That paper is over a decade out of date and clearly talks about "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices". Here's some actual data for you from HM Land Registry: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/june2019 Notice the trend in average house prices. Funny enough the time line roughly correlates to your time spent on here waiting to buy...
  12. No, people will still need DBAs and sysadmins, where the actual workload sits, be that public or private cloud is irrelevant. The lines are blurring anyway now, tridtional networking skills are not enough, you need a good handle on software defined networking concepts, which includes automation.
  13. LOL, which peer "reviewed economic literature" is this then? Of course prices are trending upwards, otherwise blokes like yourself wouldn't have spent the last decade on sites like this, hoping for a crash that never materialises, whilst ended up priced out of the market.
  14. I can tell you from first hand experience that when you have over 10 interested parties all bidding on the same house, demand does directly influence the price. Especially in a blind auction. This isn't your mumsnet postings, this is what's actually happening out their in the real world right before lockdown.
  15. I don't believe in the government/bank of England being this all powerful entity who can prevent a crash - they do have a set of tools at their disposal though, the main one being interest rates. Low Interest rates are intrinsically linked to house price inflation of the last few decades and it's really the key factor, more important than the limited housing supply, sentiment or anything else. The property market isn't going to be nerfed by a few months of lockdown IMO, sales will pause and then pick back up again where they left off. But if we start to see a sustained rise in interest rates all bets are off. Another factor is the long term trend for houses prices, which apart from the odd dip are trending upwards as everyone here knows. It's easy to find yourself priced out of the housing market if you wait around too long for one of the dips, as some on here have evidently found out.
  16. As i've said previously, a large escalation in forced repossessions, a drying up of lending, and an increase in interest rates are the things that will cause prices to drop. Given government/bank support to borrowers and liquidity at present, and the Bank of England's policy, I can't see any of these happening any time soon. Time will tell of course, but my bet is on a bounce in prices this year.
  17. 80% of potential house buyers having their income/earnings smashed? Do you have any evidence to back this up? I'm affraid you're living in a dream land if you think there's gonna be a 20-30% drop across the board given how much demand there was before lockdown, if anything i can see prices bouncing up post lockdown. Time will tell who's the comedian here.
  18. Think there are gonna be a few glum people in this thread when this great crash fails to materialise..
  19. your original post said: "No... Having something being drop and then having 50 percent of it coming back... doesn’t increase the original amount. Lending is still way tighter than what it was 3 months ago." Which still makes no sense.
  20. Possibly, but I see no evidence of any job losses in this sector at the moment, time will tell of course but as it stands there are still plenty of people with lots of money in this City.
  21. Yup, some Airbnb business will be finished by this, but you have to also bare in mind some of these owner are rich overseas cash buyers, no mortgage to worry about. They can withstand a few months of empty flats. I know this first hand as I sold a flat to one of them recently. And in broader terms, AirBnB represents a small fraction of the entire market.
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