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astrid

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  1. I would assume this may lead to three things. 1. GB companies relocating to NI to avoid tariffs 2. A slight boost the NI economy and therefore a softening of price drops in the 2-5 year time scale 3. A widespread feeling of resentment of NI within the rest of the UK, that could lead to calls for a breakup of the union. After all the UK funds Northern Ireland via the block grant to an extent much greater than the tax revenue generated here, will they really want NI to enjoy better conditions than they have despite being a drain on UK resources?
  2. What happens when the job losses go through the roof, people default on their mortgages and rent in droves, and the majority of the population get completely spooked into holding everything they can and stop spending? Any business based on consumer spending is toast, banks or financial institutions holding debt will be forced to right it off eventually, many investments products will hugely underperform. Then business owners notice how bad things are and try to cut cost leading to further job losses and we're into a deflationary death spiral! The problem is everyone believed the good times could never end (despite the fact that they have many times before) and everything could be paid for with cheap credit, so everyone borrowed as much as they could inflating asset prices, others looked around saw how much their peers had got into debt and did the same, now everyone's holding huge debt's and the music's about to stop.
  3. I honestly think next year we will see huge economic fall out from all of the factors at play, furlough, bounce back loans, Brexit but mostly low interest rates for too long. It's gonna be a shit show, the likes of which will dwarf 2008/9, unfortunately the more you meddle with a market the more volatile it becomes and the bigger the drop when all goes kaboom! I have sympathy for any government in control at this time, they really can't win. Leave all alone, mass job losses and huge economic damage, provide support - market spikes followed by even greater job losses and even greater economic damage. The problem is if the house price falls are dramatic enough the whole banking system and the rest of the economy will collapse with it.
  4. Another valid point I'd be very scared to keep money in the bank under the potential threat of bail-ins!
  5. I agree I could see things getting very scary after Christmas, but I'd say shit will really only hit the fan after the end of the stamp duty holiday at the end of March. I can't imagine repossessions materializing for a year or so, but I would think a lot of buy-to-let landlords would wisely through in the towel soon.
  6. I intend to put my house on sale in about 2 weeks, I'm currently getting some work finished off. The house is a 3 bedroom 1940s semi in Dunmurry. Have I missed the boat? Are houses still selling?
  7. I'd love to think the prices are dropping, but house prices don't do what we want or expect them to do. I know everything is going to shit, but you just cannot underestimate the stupidity of the public. People got back into the market in July knowing that they were on borrowed time and could lose their jobs, now furlough is running out but we have some 2nd attempt to keep things a float. People were stupid enough to bid houses up 20k to save 5k in stamp duty, go figure! What about the stock market, it's going extremely strong at the minute but is expected to soon crash as all companies are trading under very difficult conditions (except Amazon and a few others). When investors in stock get spooked they could well en masse shift to hard assets such as property, think about the effect of all that money suddenly propping up the property market. I remember watching the market in 2005 and saying this is the top, this madness can't continue. What happened, where I'm from (Belfast, Northern Ireland) the market rose 50% in the next 2 years! Remember the public are numb nuts!
  8. So the Stock Market is soaring despite an awful economic outlook. This makes most people think the Stock Market will soon crash. When this happens isnt it likely that investors will pull out and invest in hard assets such as property leading to a boom?
  9. One consequence of lock down has been an increase in the break up of relationships. Nothing puts strain on a marriage/relationship like having to be in close proximity to your partner for an extended period, add onto that worries about the future and the stress of home schooling and you've got a combustible mix. I know 2 couples that have decided to divorce over lock-down and more that are looking rocky. Many are now living separately and have arranged to sell their shared homes, this means more demand in the housing market. This will effect the lower end of the market as single people tend to buy cheaper smaller houses this is where greater demand will be felt. On the other side of the equation more couples will be selling larger shared houses so that higher end of the market could be adversely affected. Discuss?
  10. Apple products are well designed, good looking and generally more reliable than the alternatives. They are more resistant to hacking and provide more robust security. Mostly this comes from the fact that the software and hardware are closely coupled and work together well. Android and Windows are more open systems that allow third party software more uncontrolled access to the hardware. Aside from the physical product, Apple are brilliantly marketed. I agree marketing is always a bit of a con, but if done well most people fall for it. Apple are able to maintain an aspirational appeal that allows the high price to be justified by enough of the market to keep sales going ok for now. The problem is since the death of Steve Jobs, Apple has lost their visionary and marketing genius. He helped birth iTunes, iPod, iPhones and iPads all within 10 years, what new has come from Apple since. Competition has greatly improved and now products with more features and better performance are available for a fraction of the price. Don't know how long Apple can rest on their laurels.
  11. If Nationwide go down will this not cause other lenders to get spooked and potentially cause them to tighten their lending criteria?
  12. I would precede with caution in any renovation project. Be aware builders estimates are often very optimistic and they always tend to run into problems that will blow the budget. A neighbour of mine recently finished a two stored extension which was beset with delays and problems, they ended up sacking one builder and getting a completely new one in. The end result is a house where the numbers just don't add up. Initially the house was worth about £170k, the extension was budgeted at £50k but ended up costing nearly £100k, final total cost £270k. Unfortunately the house in it's finished state would go for no more than £215k and that's in the temporarily bouyant market, give it 6 months and it will be worth no more than £180k. Make sure the numbers add up and take into account that building costs always run higher than predicted, plus build times are always longer than expected. Have you considered selling the house and waiting until after furlough ends.
  13. That's the plan try to sell ASAP, maybe accept a small reduction if I have to. Hold on til furlough ends and then try to negotiate a deal depending upon what's available. The only problem is that if this economic situation is as bad as it appears to be you might be taking a risk keeping money in cash.
  14. I had been sale agreed on a new house in March but decided to pull out as I hadn't managed to sell my current house. So fast forward to today and I got an email from the EA trying to drum up come business. They asked was I still looking to buy. My reply below. I need to wait until I sell my current house before I can consider my buying options. I am currently having some building work completed so will be ready to sell in August. It seems with lockdown and the related unemployment that the housing market is more uncertain than at the start of the year so ideally I will wait until after the furlough period ends so that I can get my next house at a better price. Be aware that my planned house move is a business decision and I intend to profit from the move as much as possible. To this end I would be interested if you could keep me informed of any houses for sale in the Dunmurry, Lisburn, Drumbeg, Drumbo, Shaws Bridge area if the seller has a realistic grasp of the market forces or even better if they are pricing ahead of the expected market falls.
  15. There is no profit on a project house unless you get it at huge markdown. If you budget for upgrades, be very generous as builders always run into issues, plus you need to be compensated for the hassle of undertaking the project. So back of a fag packet calculation, house that would have a £500k market price if it were in good renovated order but it needs an estimated £80-90k of renovation, should only be considered if the cost is around £350k. Unfortunately there are numb nuts out there that will pay £450k for such a project thus losing £100k in the process and ruining their lives during the huge hassle of the renovation project. EAs are glad (as they have no souls) to allow a buyer to pay as much as they like for a property as they only represent the seller.
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