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House Price Crash Forum


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About Marpolian

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  1. I rent a Semi detached up North and my 'attached' neighbour moved out in December of last year. I'm assuming that it was rented as a much older guy than the one who lived there has been coming round every couple of weeks to mow the lawn. Anyway the house was 'SOLD' about a month ago then a couple of weeks later a for sale sign returned. Yet the house has remained for sale at the same price on Rightmove the whole time! So, he has not 'lost' any of the equity in the house but he has definitely lost money every single month due to mortgage payments or interest lost if the equity had been invested
  2. Ahhh, but the fall in mortgage approvals is Good News for homeowners according to the This Is Money article: "Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight said the statistics were good news for existing homeowners as rate rises were hitting purchase figures, not property prices. He said: 'The latest data suggests that house prices are proving to be resilient and softening relatively slowly, indicating that the pressure on the sector coming from higher interest rates and stretched affordability rates is manifesting itself more in fewer transactions than in sharply falling prices.' "
  3. Obviously he suggested that Greek house prices were going to fall 30% over the next two years!!
  4. As a FTB I come to this board to see recent developments in the Housing Market and reasoned arguments. As an accountant and economist I would hope that I could see some of the truths and faults in arguments used by boths Bulls and Bears. Sadly many of the Bull arguments are one dimensional and are too easily torn apart by the bears who use this forum. As for 'choosing life'. This seems to be a common theme, that renters are not enjoying quality of life. I can't see the logic in this argument. If anything renting is cheaper than buying at the moment so fiancial considerations aside where is th
  5. We are awash with for sale signs in my street, 6 for sale signs and 2 To Let signs in a street no longer than 200 metres. This includes both my neighbours. I mention the To Let signs because other properties up for rental have tended to stay unoccupied for a while with one having their To Let sign replaced with a For Sale sign in the last couple of weeks. Its a nice street too... quiet, fairly new houses, a range of semi detached and detached, lots of nice cars.
  6. Ahh! But the 'predicted' annualised price drop from Q3 04 to Q3 05 of 31.4% drags the Q3 04 price of £313,254 down to £214,718....wiping out all the gains since Q2 2004!!!! And thats nominal gains, factor in inflation and you can kiss goodbye to all the gains made since the turn of the century. Still never mind, in the long run.....
  7. The %age fall should be based on the initial value of £350,216... so a drop of 7.9% (that'll be approx 31.4% annualised). But of course BTL landlords are in it for the long term so a 31% fall doesn't matter as in the long term....say by 2020 prices will be up!
  8. What a load of rubbish from a man claiming to be an expert. Dividend yields are running at 3% because not all earnings are distributed as dividends, the remainder being reinvested in the hope of increased future dividends. This expectation of higher future dividends should raise the share price and with shares being numerous and liquid then investors can sell a portion of their holding to realise the capital gain. Gilt returns are running at 4%+ which is effectively as low risk a return as you can get, unless the Government goes bust then your returns are guaranteed. So property rental retu
  9. I live in the North West on a nice, newish estate about a mile from the motorway near Bolton, great for commuting to where I work and about an hour or so from Manchester. Since I moved in 18 months ago my rent for a 2 bed semi has been £500 a month, the 12 month renewal came and went with no increase in the rent. I like the place so am happy to stay on for the time being but there are plenty of other properties to rent in the area at similar prices, one 3 bed detached in particular has had a 'to let' sign outside for most of the time I have been here. Anyway, just before the New Year a coup
  10. I live up in Bolton, have been renting at £500 a month since July 2003. I have seen the asking price for identical 2 bed semi's on the estate rise and rise, they hit a peak at £135,000 (my rent being 4.4% of this amount!). This last couple of weeks they have fallen back to a 'realistic' £130,000. But there are 'for sale' signs shooting up everywhere! Next door just went for sale and next but one on the other side! It should be interesting in the next few months!!!!
  11. If you look at the November Hometrack report, while prices have dropped 0.6% the fall in percentage of asking price accepted has also dropped by 0.6% from 93.7% to 93.1%! So, while house prices are falling asking prices are not. With the gap between supply and demand growing rapidly it is only a matter of time before the penny finally drops and asking prices start to fall.
  12. How does earning £725 a month on £149,000 property give a 6% yield?
  13. Time to raise the Rents says: "If you could knock a large amount off the asking price & rates fall in the not too distant future, what have youy risked? Not that much IMO." Well, personally I think the risk is huge! A bit of research into buy to let says that gross returns should be about 8% or 9%. To me that seems reasonable as I think that property with all the risks attached of bad tenants, floods, etc, plus management fees and hassle of buying a place and the lack of liquidity in the asset makes it a riskier option than the stock market and therfore requires higher returns from your i
  14. But if prices go up the gap between renting and buying will widen. sooner or later something has to give! Either rents have to rise massively, interest rates fall or prices come down. It reminds me a lot of the rise in internet share prices in the 90's. watching from the sidelines and thinking 'this makes no economic sense whatsoever yet people are making a ton of money out of this, do I stick with my logic or abandon it and run with the crowd?'
  15. Hello everyone I haven’t posted before but have been reading the site for a while to keep up to date with developments and get evidence to convince my girlfriend that now is not the time to get on the property ladder. I am posting because I today saw something that left me stunned as to the level of insanity in the market. I moved up North from London to work as a chartered accountant and live in the Bolton region, I’ve got £40,000 in investments and a good wage so I have always been confident that we could buy when we felt the time was right. For the last year we have been renting a
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