crashmonitor
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Posts posted by crashmonitor
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On 24/06/2020 at 14:45, Martin_JD said:
Similar position here. Sold STC but nothing of interest coming on to buy right now.
You say you will go "STR"? what does "STR" stand for?
Sell or sold to rent.
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2 hours ago, Sausage said:
I've been watching Rightmove avidly... A trickle of houses but no sign of good value. Things going SSTC at silly prices (will see if the bank/surveyor agrees with the sale price!)
I know it'll be the end of furlough that triggers the crash proper (whatever that turns out to be, could be minuscule), but it's all very depressing at the moment.
Tend to agree. I think restriction of supply and 3 months pent up demand is holding things up. We are sold (SSTC) and scheduled to complete end of July. We would find it difficult to buy a house even if we wanted to, that really puts a temporary premium on the very few motivated sellers.
(1) At my latitude the whole of Wales ( with the 5 miles rule) is effectively closed.
(2) We quite like the idea of buying in the east too ( Lincolnshire) but many of the sellers are blue pilled boomers that aren't even doing viewings.
(3) We will probably go STR but many people in our position probably wouldn't like that insecurity during a Pandemic.
(4) We have even got refused viewing houses because some vendors are only accepting cash or first time buyers. ( that's even though we would be cash if our chain holds, tbf that is always a big if).
(5) And indeed furlough bennies and tens of billions in redundancy payouts will hold things up too.
So yep not looking like YOY falls til the backend. Patience maybe rewarded who knows. It's probably the first time for a few years that HPC is worth following ( as per Killer Bunny) as opposed ti watching paint dry. I think things might get interesting.
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13 hours ago, Killer Bunny said:
The mkt is now looking at post Lockdown and could well be headed back towards the March lows over a few weeks. I’m getting rid of a whole load of stocks.
Yes, I noted you predicted a second downwave a few days ago on your "I told you so" thread. I, too, think we will be revisiting the mid 5000s at least on the FTSE 100 measure.
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edit.
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On 09/01/2017 at 17:59, EnglishinWales said:
I've been gone too long from England obviously because I'm not sure what an English feel would be. It doesn't have a village green, they play rugby instead of cricket and everything's in 2 languages. Having said that it reminds me a lot of Malton, N. Yorkshire, where I used live: full of rich farmers and boomers. No chavs. Police station isn't even manned.
Might change soon though as austerity is beginning to bite. Lots of reduced rents and sales ads. Shops are closing like crazy because nobody wants to pay the prices they're asking. Prime HPC ground. Jobs are thin on the ground and often part-time. No wonder BTLers are throwing in the towel.
I stopped off at Ruthin last week for longer than usual. I reckon you have got a bit spoilt with Malton and Ruthin because it is well above par by any UK standards. Impressive timbered buildings, a really tidy historic Market Square. Some impressive buildings like the Market, County Offices and castle, and the hills from the Vale looming large in the background. Great Wetherspoons btw. Know what you mean about the dual language though, guy in the Castle Inn was showing off his command of Welsh on his bloody mobile very loudly.
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Connect Group in big trouble. Consortium includes Smiths news and Tuffnells carriers. The billion pound revenue group has long been a value share favourite on growing profits on a perennial single digit price to earnings ticket. Unfortunately all done on a tiny profit margin that may have disappeared. Shares down to 30p from recent one pound levels and £2.40 a few years back.
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32 minutes ago, spyguy said:
' He won't have any of it, his financial adviser told him it was legit, he's got a solicitors letter saying the scheme is lawful '
My standard response to these idiot, unemployed IFA/small town tax accountant/solicitors is to ask:
'Who goes to prison? Them or you?'
Watching my brother deal w out of one of thes magic schemes.As my mum used to say, before TSHTF, 'Hes got a very good accountant'
Yes ... so good, the bloke sits in spoons doing oilies books/taxes.Small time unemployed is probably right. A "good accountant" stretching tax law to the limit is probably a bad one. In my experience most are so fearful of litigation and not being covered by professionsal indemnity that they play with beyond a straight bat these days. I'm not surprised that a quasi public sector institution is involved as there is a myth in public sector circles that accountants are there to defraud tax. The law is so strict now that they have to report fraud to the tax authorities even if they are not involved at penalty of being struck off.
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Poundworld bust...announced by BBC as Poundland by mistake.
Brief heart attack for any Steinhoff International shareholders owner of Poundland.
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1 hour ago, winkie said:
If had £1m to spend.......buy something for less than £500k, bank/invest the balance for income to spend later, should last a good few years.......;-)
How many people today are living here and all over the world from the proceeds of a house that has inflated well above both local wages and general inflation?
Low unemployment, they don't need to work.........the house did all the work for them.?
Precisely what me and the wife have done, except she still works. About a third property, two thirds invested. Not much point in doing anything else up here; property has barely moved in 15 years. Zoopla says +4.5% during the last two years when stuff has been selling. Getting close to retail price inflation is a boom apparently even as it falls in real terms.
Totally different world up here from London and Oxbridge.
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12 hours ago, stuckmojo said:
I think it's because it will probably cost north of £100k a year to run. I love it.
Guess that's why a two up, two down in Jericho commands more than a Stately Home in Co Durham. The coal magnate's house is worth less than the home of his retired maid of all works.
That's progress and spreading the wealth to the Socialist Republic of Oxford.
Peak education I suppose. Go where the Government spends its mounting debt.
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9 minutes ago, longgone said:
2 years for sale and no takers.
probably worth 250k
And probably cost about ten million to build in today's money.
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Think there should be some redress for the care costs but on death via IHT.
The largest estates I have been aware of are widows living into their 90s and 100s usually through the accumulation of additional public sector final salary pensions and property.
There should be pay back for the hundred of thousands of pounds in care and pension costs. Instead the first 650,000 is tax free...typically these estates are around or just over that mark. And it is some relative or charity that pockets the lot tax free whilst the deceased has contributed to a two trillion plus public sector debt legacy in health snd pension costs.
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On 03/06/2018 at 09:43, FabulousSophie said:
PS I should clarify that the first stages of London's bust began in Q3 2015 and it is therefore virtually 3 years old there already. So by historical precedent it should now be over or almost bottoming there. The national figures are clearly highly delayed but may follow the same timeframe. Perhaps London will actually start to recover before the nationwide bust begins?
Fwiw the market in N Midlands is very slow so the days of the provinces masking the crash in areas like Oxbridge and London are probably over.
A bit is selling at the bottom for sure, but terrible once you get over 300k. What I really can 't understand is real crap that looks like Coronation Street asking 240k and then really good 4 bed detached cottages, on very good quiet country lanes in half an acre or so asking 400k.
May be a symptom of BOMAD that crap is probably +40% noughties peak and good detached property stuck at something like 2003 prices here.
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I've tried to switch radio4 on five times this morning but had to switch it off. Basically this mornings offering so far...
(1) The heroism of teenage pregnancy
(2) The heroism of being a gypsy
(3) Acid throwing and disfiguration..
(4) Caribbean slavery
(5) Grenfell (on now)
(6) UK's broken railways (next)
Is the schedule some sort of hell torture for listeners.
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53 minutes ago, flb said:
I've made no secret of the fact that that's my view on these things. There's just one problem: both Labour and Tories are for inflating the housing bubble and other parties stand no chance of getting elected.
(what the c*nts are saying is that they'll pay 100k from your taxes and mine and that they'll extend help to buy, of course). You don't need to be a genius to know they're also bought and paid for.
This is pretty much why I bought. While I know what would really help (described above), I also know the major parties are in it together. Sooo....
What do you expect from a guy with a two million pad in Islington. The only wealth he wants to destroy is savings. A fat lot of good that will do for a hpc. I reckon there will be a panic into anything physical.
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On 31/05/2018 at 13:28, Kosmin said:
Was it the tech bubble or just a bubble? I didn't think there were many tech stocks in the FTSE 100.
Well BT was considered a tech and was number one ranker with a share price of £10.53 and over a hundred billion market cap.
Today a couple of quid a share a 20 billion cap and 15 billion final salary pension deficit.
Today it's number 29 by cap and definitely Championship a bit like Aston Villa.
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On another matter visa is down across Europe. Chaos at the checkouts.
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On 31/05/2018 at 10:43, Beary McBearface said:
Love the idea that with a run of monthly falls it could ever take more that a year for the index to go year on year negative. 12 months of 0.1% only takes you down by 1.206%, but obviously, it does take you down. I'll be back with the correct answer for the current NW stats after some coffee.
Halifax is capable of a YOY positive after 12 monthly falls eg 15 month data....
100.0, 100.0, 103.0, 102.9, 102.8, 102.7, 102.6, 102.5, 102.4, 102.3, 102.2, 102.1, 102.0, 101.9, 101.8.
Actual fall is 101.8/ 103.0 =minus 1.2%
Halifax would calculate (102.0+101.9+101.8=305.7)÷(100+100+103=303) = annual +0.1%
Their smoothing Qon Q formula brings in 15 month old data and it takes longer than a year for data to drop out the rolling stats. That's why their current annual stat is flattering to reality.
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Think he gets three years to sell previous home and will get refunded the extra stamp duty. So get that BTL up for sale.
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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:
This story on Sky News today seems timely:
Warning that nostalgia in politics is 'imperilling liberal democracy'
Two thirds of the public think life in Britain was better in a bygone age, a study by Sky Data and the think tank Demos suggests.
Two thirds of the public think life in Britain was better in a bygone age, and the increasing influence of nostalgia in politics is "imperilling liberal democracy," a new study by Sky Data and the think tank Demos suggests.
Some 63% of Britons think life is worse now than when they were growing up, against 21% who think it is better now, and 8% who think the quality of life has not changed.That includes a clear majority of Britons in every age group - perhaps surprisingly, young people were most likely to think life in Britain was better when they were growing up (69% among those aged 18-34, against 59% of 35-54s and 61% of people aged 55 and over).
Similarly, 63% of the public think Britain's status on the world stage has declined since their youth, 55% think there are now lower quality job opportunities, and 71% think there used to be a greater sense of community.
Britons are divided as to whether immigration has been good (36%) or bad (40%) for the communities in which they have settled, with stark differences across political divides.
Labour voters and Remainers are much more likely to say it has been positive, Conservatives and Leave voters are much more likely to say it has been negative.
But the public is united in thinking immigration has divided the communities they settled in - 71% say immigration has caused greater division, including a clear majority across every demographic and across the political spectrum.
And Britons are worried that British values are under threat - 55% think the government is not doing enough to promote traditional British values, with 17% saying they go too far and 22% saying they get the balance about right.
Conservative voters are among the strongest critics of their own government on this measure - some 66% think they have not done enough to promote British values.
Demos also conducted qualitative research across Britain, France and Germany, which found many citizens of each country have been alienated by profound social, economic and cultural changes - and attracted towards nostalgic political messages as a result.
Demos's report warns that "the cost of mainstream politicians failing to respond to these developments may well be our societies becoming more exclusionary and less communal, underpinned by a more desperate, dangerous form of social competition - in short, the imperilling of our liberal democracies."
Yep the demographics and thoughts on the benefits of immigration differ from country to country. The left and young embrace it here, but apparently the rightwing backlash in Italy has been largely led by the young voter. Hard to imagine 600,000 (540,000 economic) migrants arriving over four years across the English channel as has been the case in Southern Italy from Libya and how that would affect your politics.
Meanwhile Japan still virtually bans settlement despite its demographic timebomb siting the failed European multicultural experiment. Careworkers on temporary visas only.
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Oxford prices are so far out in lala land that 5% is nothing. When terraced houses in the former slum quarter of Jericho go for one million I think this is just the start.
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I see Edmonds successfully sued Morcambe Council after another Blobbyland there hit trouble after just 13 weeks. Council tax payers lost two million quid including the council's one million pound investment in Blobbyland.
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Wasn't one of the reasons that Unique went bankrupt, Blobbyland?
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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:
This says POA but I know it's £1m. You can also tell by doing a wider search and seeing where it figures in the prices.
It was on for £525k with a an agricultural occupancy restriction, now that's been removed and they have planning for 4 gypsy/traveller hard standings it's doubled in price.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71764805.html
Must admit I'm a bit confused about who has the money/inclination to buy that set up.
Gypsies, M6 motorway...sounds like perfect heaven.
Nationwide, house prices surge 2.1% in August
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by crashmonitor
Too many people chasing too few listed properties just now and you only need a few transactions to set an entire Market. Virtually nothing to rent or buy, save for newbuilds if you are prepared to wait 6 to 9 months on an uncertain completion whilst builders battle the biggest shortage of building materials and labour post war. Printing a trillion pounds hasn't helped, locking the country up for one year hasn't either. Pouring more petrol onto the flames is immigration and millions of boomer's children now entering the Market.
Seems like you can set your watch by Harrison's 18 year cycle . 2003/ 2021 peak of the booms. Q3 2025 probably when we will begin the bust.