NoHPCinTheUK

That’s not correct. Real Estate will always be part of the portfolio of a wealthy family. What’s coming to an end is the dream of the rest of society thinking they could play the same game buying a 2 bed former council house and get rich with it.

Lower prices doesn’t mean higher volumes. And it’s open to debate whether higher volumes would equal higher revenues and profits. I am looking at the charts and I am seeing a collapse in prices AND volumes in 2008-2009. You’re a mortgage broker, you’re not selling insurances. In order to sell, like in the equity market, you need to have buyers and buyers only buy if they think prices are going to go up. How many clients would you have if they were told that in 2/3/4/5 y time they will have to renew 2/3pc higher? So yes, your vested interest is to paint the picture of a never ending HPI. As a start, I would make it illegal for an EA to have their own in-house mortgage broker or even worse a commercial agreement with several brokers. Your interests are not aligned with those of the buyers. Never were and never will. What are you going to say to your clients when in 2/5y time they will have to renew at the same rates, or even higher vs what they’re paying now? Also bearing in mind you’ve sold them a product through which they’ve paid peanuts towards their equity slice.

Mortgage brokers have a vested interest in selling their products and they need to find the right narrative to sell buyers their product in this market. The narrative here at the moment is “buy now we will renew at a lower rate in 2y, just a little effort that would suck more than 50% of your income now, but don’t worry things will improve”. If the narrative would have been IRs are going to be high now and never going back down you would probably get 0 business.

People got used to 5% IRs because the whole housing industry told them it was just a temporary spike and that things will have gone back to normal very soon. That didn’t happen and that isn’t happening. What is actually happening is that people who bought during the pandemic are going to need to sell their houses as they cannot adjust to 5% and god only knows what’s going to happen to those buyers who are signing up to the everything back to normal mantra when interest rates won’t go down and possibly will be higher. House sales have collapsed. This is not a healthy market.

He’s a mortgage broker.

Also if the £ tanks, Bailey will have to RAISE rates, not cut them.

Also the £story…. this is literally the $ up vs all other currencies. Nothing to do with the BoE cutting rates soon.

Lol Make a little effort now, when you’ll renew in 2y rates will be lower and your payment will go down. Trust me! This is the narrative at the moment. People are buying this story along with your products. The Markets are telling a different truth. For how long you think the industry will manage to keep the wheels spinning?

Mortgage brokers here keep repeating the narrative that IRs are going to go down soon, that the housing market is in good health and everything will be fine. What I’m ACTUALLY seeing in the markets is , on the contrary, a completely different story. Swaps are on their way up with the short term of the curve now approaching again the 5% level but it’s the long tail of the curve which is also going up now, showing that borrowers are investors are now capitulating and both are willing to pay more and ask more for longer durations. This is happening in the gov bond market, corp bond market and interest rates swaps market. Look at the gilts curve: maturities between 5 to 10 y are now showing the highest YTD %change. What it means is that the curve is steepening and because the movement is an upward trajectory in the medium-long term yields this a bear signal. investors are now starting to correctly price in another hike from the FED. Quite frankly this isn’t a market shift, the market has never priced in a cut. Yields never told this story. The whole of the “take as much debt as you can ‘cause I need my annual bonus” did. Now their lies are finally being exposed.

It looks like Goldman moved to Paris the whole of their senior bankers desk covering Europe.

The real question is what is the country doing with all this money. ;)

You’d have to rent the £620k 2 bed for £3k pm for a gross yield of 5.8pc. lol

They live like kings!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13327361/benefits-scroungers-seaside-town-workshy-Britain.html

https://youtu.be/rqM1DZkg9r8?si=gsNRv79bX14SjgN1