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House Price Crash Forum

Arctic Steve

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About Arctic Steve

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    HPC Newbie
  1. That's right, trying to guess/judge currency movements is super-difficult, unless you're a real expert. Only a year or two ago the dollar was on the verge of collapse, before that it was the Euro... I'm amazed that so many people on HPC try to second guess things like currency and commodity movements. Even share prices, interest rate and property movements are very difficult to forecast. If you're a trader you trade what you see. And in my experience, one of the quickest ways to lose money is to have a long-term view. Sure, I believe that UK property prices will fall by 50% in the next few years, but I wouldn't bet on it!
  2. aussieboy, I don't think you're being reasonable. Say someone sold their internet stock in September 1999, and it's now March 1 2000. You're only a winner if you buy back that internet stock at a cheaper price? The question is what you did with your STR money, and whether you're outperforming the property market. And why would one want to reinvest one's profits in a what seems to me to be a bubble asset?
  3. I think people have been bragging about resources on the BBs for nearly a year. As for bragging about them at dinner parties, when will the man in the street start buying gold. I assume you were too young to be a regular at dinner parties in 1980. Were people bragging about their gold investments then? I don't know.
  4. OK, tell me about the current regime in Iran. I read the papers, I listen to the news, most of my first degree was in modern history... my reading of the situation is that there won't be a war with Iran. Tell me why I am wrong. Thanks.
  5. megaflop, Correlaton isn't cause. I'm 90% sure that property is in a bubble, and that a crash is on the cards. As for gold, I feel that the gold bulls are fixated on the 1970s, and they believe that somehow the 1970s are going to repeat themselves all over again. As for Iran, if there was a worse case scenario, then gold would probably rocket and property would probably crash. This would create a new environment, and old correlations would probably no longer hold.
  6. Well put your profits in property. Let the trend be your friend! Sorry, momentum investing isn't for me. Commodites and metals, even oil, to me looks a bit like the 1999-2000 dotcom bubble. And in my opinion Iran is the pin that could burst it.
  7. I think that's a statistical statement. It's saying that where the external environment remains static a particular correlation will remain in force. A resolution of the Iran crisis would represent a change in the external environment and the correlation could, in my opinion, no longer be relied on.
  8. And I think the UK will oppose it as well. Iran is a country that the Foreign Office have a good understanding of, and they know the score. I think, in my opinion, that the chances of war are very, very slim, though I'm not saying that they'll be a clear resolution to the problem. Yet the focus is very much on Iran, and for some investors and speculators a resolution of the Iran crisis could be financially catastrophic. Remember in 1998, when Russia was about to melt down, taking the whole world with it?
  9. Well, I don't know... what is the problem with holding a lot of Yen, besides the current low interest rate?
  10. Could it not be argued that gold and silver all part of the same bubble as property? Since 2000 there is been a strong correlation between property and gold? If the Iran crisis resolves itself - which I think it might - would you really want to be holding gold? Or oil for that matter? And if you're a gold bull, aren't you by definition bearish on non-resource equities?
  11. Vocation? Basically, in the UK, they make a decision to do science 'A' levels at 16. Get the grades at 18 and that's enough. Anyway, seems unreasonable to require GPs to be at the top of academic pile.
  12. Trouble is, in my opinon, much of the medical profession has far too high a status - certainly in terms of salary. While I appreciate that that surgeons and specialists are highly skilled, the problem lies with General Practice. Do you really need three As in science 'A' levels to be a GP? I've never been told anything by a GP that I couldn't have worked out for myself, in the library or on the internet. It would seem to me that the job of a GP could be done just as well by a nurse, on a third of the salary. Just think of the savings to the NHS if GPs were replaced with a new brand of nurse, who had GP training? Such a nurse would obviously have to be intelligent, but he or she wouldn't need to be super highly qualified. And like GPs, if the something is beyond them, they send their patient to a specialist.
  13. Though having looked at the picture of the front I'm not so sure I'd want to live there.
  14. Didn't the Irish workers help build our motorway system? And now the Poles are flooding into Ireland. Maybe in 30 years time the Uzbekhs will be emmigrating to Poland, to do jobs that the Poles don't want to do. Plus ce change.
  15. But can't you buy a whole house in Fulham for £400,000? In fact £390,000, and you might be able to get it for less! http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-635...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy
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