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House Price Crash Forum


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About Killian

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  1. You are confusing a pyramid and a Ponzi scheme in your earlier post. Do you realise that? Judging exponential growth is dependent on the time frame in question. The UK population structure is nowhere near stable. Look at something called the dependency ratio. Have you heard of this? Look at health costs as people age, especially the very old which will increase dramatically. I guess you have a lot of money invested in a pension or work in that sector because you protest too much. Coming back to the initial point now that you have informed yourself about Ponzi schemes, do y
  2. The UK pension system has relied on exponential population growth to sustain it. I see no evidence or suggestion from anyone that this will change and as population growth is not sustainable neither is the current pension system
  3. Then all government pensions are certainly Ponzi schemes as they is nothing saved for them and is paid out of current taxation. Inflation should see to DC schemes as demographics detiorate
  4. Most didn't even realise this though. Yields were dropping on other investments due to low growth forecasts and so a few invested in property and the bubble inflated itself as buyers jumped in and banks chased the returns. This is why immigration will not be stopped politically because pensions need paying. But immigration will drop once standard of living drops even further and our infrastructure has completely fallen apart.
  5. Which specialities are about to be automated? Which companies are doing this? What par of the process from history, management, investigations are being automated?
  6. You are right dementia is not going down. The rate has decreased over the mid term past but this will be overwhelmed by the increase in number and proportion (of total population) that are old and very old (>85). From a country and personal burden perspective and ratio of carers/family to dementia sufferes it is increasing which is what really matters regarding pensions
  7. There is corruption no doubt motivating their decisions to propup the housebuilder friends but notwithstanding this they stepped in to maintain stability as the economy couldn't take it. How does the economy reallocate resources in a failing economy to employ hundreds of thousands, if not millions of adult males with low numeracy/literacy/computer skills (this is the reality of building sites)?
  8. Not what happened last time. Persuading investors to buy an illiquid asset whilst cash flows are reduced due to lower sales of houses also persuading land holders to sell at the lower price might be difficult. Selling fast in a recession would be difficult. If the market was falling you would be outcompeted by the developer that waited another month a bought the land at an even cheaper price. What about all the people who lost their job? How does the economy deal with that?
  9. Longer time period, better transferable skills, locations of alternative employment. Different factors Land is most expensive element in some areas others infrastructure and foundations are higher. 25% for land is pretty typical
  10. But there is a significant lead time for land in the construction sector. The land that is being sold to homepurchasers now was purchased years ago, so that will create a loss. Also in a falling market companies will be reluctant to buy land as they won't know if they are at the bottom yet. This was happened last time with a mild drop in prices
  11. Any rapid drop in house prices will shock the economy because over 2m people are directly employed in construction and more indirectly. Large proportion are in new house building. These people have no transferable skills and will be a big burden on the economy and will reduce their spending impacting rest of economy and so on Construction is also on average one of the highest paying sectors
  12. As much as I dislike Carney his statements are difficult to establish direct cause and effect, when financial instability arises it will be impossible to prove it is because of HTB The guy going after Boris is clearly trying to make a career for himself with a non story. He is exploiting the remainers upset to manufacturer a career. If he/voters cannot distinguish between gross and net and base their votes on what is written on a bus then that is their problem not a problem with a campaign. This guy attempts to portray himself as smart but comes across as dim whilst Boris does the op
  13. HTB will have to be tapered or not reversed at all. The HTB effect has already fed into pumping up builders profits and consequently the land prices and suppler costs for builders, these will take multiple years to unwind. If HTB stopped tomorrow the builders profits would plunge and all the overleveraged suppliers would have to take pay cuts, which would bankrupt them. The negative equity of newly purchased new builds would be massive. HTB has caused massive distortion to the market and is one of the most idiotic ill thought policies ever. Even the intellect of Corbyn and Abbott co
  14. Exactly. That is why the best investment is to diversify as much as possible and invest in your own skill set and any children if you have them. Investing a lot in pensions with current demographics is a bit risk.
  15. If you look at the big builders financial statements you will see costs have generally increased as profits have. Demand drives prices not the other way round. Any demand is facilitated by credit
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