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Council estate capitalist

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Everything posted by Council estate capitalist

  1. It's a tricky one and I'm not sure how cases would fit within the UK legal framework but I hope some cases are brought. Coronavirus will be the subject lawsuits for many many years. Would any case be predicated on the risky move of students "rejecting" the online learning offered?. The way I see it is that if the student accepts the online learning (and it was delivered correctly) then the student has varied the contract and wouldn't be able to bring a claim.
  2. £11,700,000,000 / 211000 = £55450 HTB loan per property Absolutely insane. I have no idea why shares in housebuilders are still trading for what they are, does the market just assume that housebuilders will always get a bailout?
  3. I read about this happening in Iceland. (In Big short author Micheal Lewis's book "Boomerang"). They borrowed in dollars to purchase range rovers & due to adverse currency moves they were deep in negative equity. Option 1 ship it to somewhere you can get EUR/USD for it. or set it on fire for the insurance. Route 3: Roll it for a total loss + a cheeky personal injury claim. Better have GAP insurance though because the "market value" settlement from the insurer probably won't cover the finance. Who even knows how much a 2 year old Range Rover is worth right now.
  4. These businesses haven't been viable for years. The administrators have received several expressions of interest which is their basis for not making redundancies straight away. Of course most of the interest will be from tyre kickers and will come to nothing but it benefits the administrators to drag it out.
  5. I predict many tenants will straight refuse to pay the service charges, They'll continue to pay the rent & the landlord will end up taking it to court (You need balls of steel for forfeit in the coming economic crash). There will be several large court cases deciding what "fair apportionment of service charge" means when 95% of the tenants derive no benefit from it.
  6. Mark to market Enron style re-valuing the properties ever higher each year. many stock market propco's have most of their profit from revaluation gains rather than rent.
  7. They have no idea. Airbnb speculators will have have just taken out regular BTL mortgages. (Especially if it's flats where they are also in breach of the lease) Airbnb landlords will be rushing to find regular tenants. In some this will barely cover the mortgage interest (If they can find paying tenants & market rent doesn't fall).
  8. I reckon they'll either end up leaving the fixtures/fittings behind for the landlords & disclaim the leases, or storing it (probably in the restaurants) until the lockdowns over. Physical auctions banned & nobody will be opening/refurbishing a restaurant right now anyway. Lease premiums forget about it.
  9. "Additional Price Paid entry includes transfers under a power of sale (repossessions), buy-to-lets where they can be identified by a mortgage, and transfers to non-private individuals. Data available from 14 October 2013" If it's a BTL mortgage deed that goes in to the land registry then it'll automatically mark it as "additional price paid". Transfers to companies will be more common since S24 has come in creating an tax advantage to using a Ltd for buy to let.
  10. Someone in government obviously sent a few emails out. The banks really don't have a choice, Repossessions are at the low levels they are because it is a last resort.
  11. If you took the maximum loan you'd have to make £60k a year straight out of uni just to cover the interest on the loan, never mind the principal .
  12. It's a tricky one, how you trade will depend on your personal outlook on how serious this will get/how long it will take to blow over. Few trade ideas: Seem good but who knows, short term speculation based on events is hard to get right. Dignity PLC - UK based. profitable dividend paying. - recent profit falls. rebound? Service Corporation International - US based funeral provider. Tristel - They make a surface cleaning/disinfectant system used by the NHS. There have been news reports that a patient was treated with anti-HIV drugs. Might be worth buying shares in those companies. Begbies Traynor PLC - Insolvency Practitioners. Good bet if you think their will be mass corporate insolvencies. However they failed to capture a lot of business in the last recession leading to a share price slump + There have been legislation changes so the IP is now paid BEHIND the VAT/PAYE man, it is unclear how this will affect profits.
  13. You and me both! If education is a social good (it's accepted that it is until 18) then why is it not regarded as such post-18. It has also lead to a highly reductive argument that the only degree subjects with value are those that provide a positive return on investment. So economics, investment banking etc are rated higher than art, philosophy etc especially from the lower tier universities. The reason the government is concerned about "value for money" so suddenly is because they are no longer able to use the funny accounting tricks that kept the student loans on the balance sheet at face value. Universities aren't blameless, they've exploited the rules of the system that encouraged them to expand places but keep the fees the same by lowering entry standards, spending on plush new buildings complete with Starbucks franchise with borrowed money just to compete. Another gripe I have is that it is based on parents* household income with no adjustment for whether they rent/own, how many kids they have to support, commuting costs etc. *parents by SLC standards include step-parents. So in effect mums' new boyfriend who you might have only known a few months is expected to pony up the cash for your upkeep!.
  14. As far as I understand it the over payments to SLC are due to people starting/quitting jobs part way through the tax year or having income that fluctuates from month to month. (The amount you are required to pay back is 9% of salary over £18,935 (pre-2012 loans) or 9% of salary over £25,725 (post-2012 loans), But because it's taken out of your salary each month it can lead to overpayments). Worst case scenario is that the ex-student pays more interest than if they had "overpaid" their loan by not asking for the money back. As the interest rate is 1.75% (pre-2012) and somewhere between 2.4% and 5.4% (post-2012) it makes financial sense for many to ask for it back. Student also wins in the following scenarios: - debt written off after 30 years with a large outstanding balance - government of the future decides to write-off all the debt early as a vote purchase scheme.
  15. They'd get an additional £13.70 per week in child benefit + it might entitle them to another bedroom but that's about it. If that child was disabled they would be able to claim DLA + The "disabled child element" of UC + carers element. There have been some spurious cases of claims for kids that have "ADHD" or similar. I believe the "2 child limit" should be read as "2 children on the claim" so if a couple with 2 kids, 1 about to "age-off" the claim they would benefit from having another kid. There is a fringe benefit to having another in that UC claimants are required to look for work after the child is 3. Not being hassled by the job-centre might unconsciously lead to some having another one.
  16. It's mainly tax credits that bring the big gains for parents, Although I have noticed those on income support spacing it every 5 years (once the kid turned 5 they were expected to look for work). Child tax credits was an absolute cash-cow, There's a calculation on here somewhere that shows that a couple (renting with kids) working 16-24 hours in Tesco is roughly the same as a couple on a combined salary of £70k (Due to tax, loss of benefits + the childcare costs.) Universal credit is putting a stop to this (see tax credits sad face thread). They have brought in a 2 child limit. Under UC a couple >25 with 2 kids (one born 2016, 1 born 2018) (not disabled), Living in a 2 bed house in Coventry would get: £498.89 for the parents, £277.08 for first £231.67 for 2nd kid. £497.55 towards rent (2 bed private rental) Total £18062 for the year. + £1788 in child benefit on top. they would be able to earn £3400 per year without their benefits going down.
  17. Many factors. The rates published are for "band D" which is for houses worth between £68k to £88k in 1991. I don't know how much of the council tax revenue collected the council gets to keep or if they get a grant to cover the tax they are unable to collect but "left behind" areas will have significant poverty related expenditure. On schools, kids in care, housing, cleaning up fly tips, social care (no valuable house to cover costs). I'm personally against council tax, It must cost hundreds of millions to collect/process council tax support claims, it's based on 1991 house prices and not a proportional tax (£100m mansion only pays 3x what someone in a bedsit would). It's also fairly absurd that those on benefits get handed money by one department of the government then have to pay it to another department (council) with the admin expense/inevitable loss on the way. Council tax only represents 5% of the total tax take. In my mind it'd make more sense to add maybe 1/2 percent to the income tax rate/reduce benefits by about 5%
  18. The 17% increase in repossessions is interesting. 17% seems a lot however the absolute numbers are tiny, 1,330 owner-occupier repossesions out of 9 million mortgages in Q4 2019, 59 in every 100,000 mortgages. https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/data-and-research/data/mortgages/arrears-and-possessions View the PDF, Arrears are down but it's interesting the number of cases where the borrower is in arrears equivalent to 10% or more of the outstanding mortgage. 21,770 in Q4 2019. I guess if there's equity in the house then arrears only generate more interest for the bank, And if the property is in negative equity then the lender won't want to book the loss.
  19. If you had an income of £377k and £500k in the bank why would you need a loan to start a business, If it was an acquisition I could understand it but it looks like Spitfire Capital is a consultancy of some sort. The accounts don't give too much away but it looks to me at least that the business is losing money year after year. It's far too easy for Walter Mitty types to commit fraud like this, I'm constantly seeing stories where the "victim" hasn't done any verification/checks before making loans/investments or job offers
  20. Quick search reveals the BBC article is a stripped down version of this much more thorough and surprisingly detailed article in the Sun. https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/8936267/dad-cleared-32k-debts-year-haggling-debt-collectors/ Crux of it is he got into serious debt in his 20's, entered into a fee charging "debt management plan" at 27 which paid his creditors £1/£2 a month + probably hefty fees to the DMP operator. Age 44 one of the creditors offers to take 50p in the pound which spurs him on to work overtime, cash in his Royal Mail shares and offer creditors an average of 40p in the £1 on what they are owed + One £3400 debt was statute barred.
  21. £5665 to £8344 a year jump in year 5. Not too dramatic but if one of them loses their job or leaves to have children then it's not an insignificant increase to occur suddenly. Hopefully they are sensible and save enough money that they can safely refinance at the same LTV, Or pay the equity loan off at a discount when the market crashes. Year Monthly mortgage HTB interest/fees monthly 1 £471.12 £1.00 2 £471.12 £1.00 3 £471.12 £1.00 4 £471.12 £1.00 5 £471.12 £1.00 6 £688.97 £77.04 7 £688.97 £81.13 8 £688.97 £85.22 9 £688.97 £89.30 10 £688.97 £94.14 Assumes 1.59% initial rate. (5 year fix) 4.24% SVR (Base + 3.49%) 5% yearly RPI in years 5-10 (HTB's numbers not mine) 40 year repayment, fees not rolled into balance
  22. 11.4% are Neets but what's more interesting I think is that only 41.6% of Neets "were looking for, and available for, work". The rest (462,000) are "economically inactive". Either resigned to not getting a job, drug dealing, pregnant, or planning on going to college but leaving it to the last minute. Some parents have turned into "mini-landlords" collecting large amounts of "board and lodge" from their kids. gotta fund the tax credit shortfall somehow but charging full market rent for the room + food on top is excessive especially if it's paid off.
  23. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7942143/Bungling-mechanics-mess-womans-24-000-Range-Rover-repair.html NHS secretary with a Rover Range(sic) Evoque, Either I'm in the wrong job or she's up to her eyeballs in PCP payments
  24. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000dmxc/inside-out-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire-20012020 In case anyone missed it this is the full 30 minute version (Some areas were only shown a 10 minute condensed version that didn't do the story justice).
  25. I didn't realise HPC was unaware of this. I have been following this situation for a few months mostly for the morbid pleasure of seeing him get what he deserves. He has a "reality" series on youtube aptly called "the eviction" which opens with a shot of his limo driving to the money-pit derelict castle he owns (apart from a £400k shylock bridging loan). It'll be interesting to see what hidden footage is shown on BBC, There's already footage of him shouting at attendees, calling them idiots and shouting at them for yawning. (The "free" course is a full on 12 hour event designed to induce decision fatigue).
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