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House Price Crash Forum

Accountant Belfast

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  1. Halifax report says : "Overall, we continue to expect house prices to rise by around 1% over the course of 2018. " So translating their BS spin on the figures, if were already at 2% for 2018 that's a continued decrease in MOM to December at least. Prices up .. trousers down
  2. I would normally have agreed but would that involve the backstop arrangement with an Irish sea boarder? the fudge zone would have to end somewhere which I believe has been ruled out in law by Thesesa May with the DUP at the puppet strings.. I have read some of the technical notices ( talk about fudges, you could drive a bus through the gaps in the plans). if brexit goes wrong, ( no deal etc) with NI's current status as a UK ignored afterthought with no active Gov - I think the whole NI economy is rubber ducked, we may struggle to feed the population here or let alone think of the price of housing stock. If this plays out the way its going, I think this time 2 years there is a fair chance our brightest and best next generation will be clearing off to Australia- a loss to the economy and there's the next generation of FTB's
  3. Is anyone else scared by the ni no deal plans published ? It is the responsibility of the UK government to continue preparations for the full range of potential outcomes, including ‘no deal’. In such a scenario, the UK would stand ready to engage constructively to meet our commitments and act in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland, recognising the very significant challenges that the lack of a UK-EU legal agreement would pose in this unique and highly sensitive context. This would include engagement on arrangements for land border trade. We will provide more information in due course. The Irish government have indicated they would need to discuss arrangements in the event of no deal with the European Commission and EU member states. We would recommend that, if you trade across the land border, you should consider whether you will need advice from the Irish government about preparations you need to make. sounds a bit wooly to me, plan is there is no plan, wonder how EAs will soon this one?
  4. I have been watching property stock on my desired locations and honestly have not seen anything worthwhile coming on in the last few months, whereas earlier in the year it was almost daily supply. This seems to have opened an opportunity for the less desirable places to ask a little more due to the low volumes elsewhere. Question is this, are people siting tight, I would have thought with Brexit on the way some people would have been cashing out while the going is still good??
  5. More bubble talk https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6064685/amp/Fears-grow-house-prices-fall-fastest-rate-financial-crisis.html
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45193044 a 1% fall is still a fall had this been the other way it would have been all over the news with EA's on the telly talking utter nonsense.... prices up ... trousers down and all that
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45193044 a 1% fall this year, didn't take long for them to mention the word bubble and try and put some distance from this downward trend and 2007/8
  8. Hi, There is a lot of talk which points to the high possibility of an impending financial crisis. Many saying the lessons of 2008 have not changed anything, with rising debt, rising inflation, interest rates on life support and cheap credit causing irresponsible lending. We have some very smart people posting here, and I want to use this form as an open debate and gauge peoples thoughts .. 'is there a recession coming?? ' and if so how and where will this happen and how bad will it affect the British people. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail Please lets discuss.... all opinions welcome
  9. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States. Table shows periods of USA economic growth in between recessions, we are approaching the longest period in post war history...in an interlinked global economy with Italy and Spain weak, Brexit May be the catalyst to spark of more than a Uk housing crash.....
  10. I think their mammies must be still in shock of their own ordeal or too busy working multiple jobs paying off their over inflated mortgages to lift their heads and pay attention to millennials dreams of a unicorn filled lawn of their own . or maybe its just become the new norm to give up on your dreams and only go to work only to pay your mortgage and estate agents commissions. another question.. mortgages of £350k plus which seem to be fairly common of something half decent worth actually going to work for, are clearly being aimed at joint income multiples, what happens when these couples want kids of their own - extended periods of single income and additional family expenses ( child care etc.). in post war periods purchasing parody of a single income made this family dream possible, with the ever expanding proportion of income required and committed for an over inflated mortgage - what possibilities is this hurting elsewhere. for many this is a short term view sold to those too short sighted to see it..
  11. I think the tax amounts previously would have been quite small for a vast majority due to the offset financing but as this tax break decreases - the liability increases as does the incentive to chase, fingers crossed. It’s just another example of how an unaffordable and unsustainable property market is proper up with illegal activity and greed. Looking at the property market I see one big game of jenga that now only takes one peice to bring down the structure, rental is one, interest rates coming of life support is another, Brexit and god forbid more job losses are another.. I could go in . I honestly hope that when the soon next reset happens the lessons are actually learned this time and housing does not stay an investment but goes back to being the basic human right that it is.
  12. Kind of new to Hpc and reading some of the posts, well thought out and wise decision ??. Have you any updated thoughts seeing things in Brexit negotiations and ni prospects of a hard boarder have been even worse since this post in March ?
  13. With hmrc penalty’s in this area running up to 100% that’s a risky strategy, landlord registration scheme, newly linked up insurance databases, credit history databases and electoral registers, utility bills and new hmrc campaigns to investigate this it could be brown trouser time for 9 of your mates someday when a tax inspector comes knocking??. Unlikely they are financed correctly eg btl mortgages which becomes harder to review when credit is not as easily available, plus if they are not legit and cutting corners what’s to say rental property is up to code with health and safety etc, rents are not cheap so I think people are less likely to accept this going forward like they did in the past, it’s a brave new digital age we live in and only a matter of time until this is unacceptable to renters and under the spotlight for tax evasion. Also on the sale of property I believe this may now be uncovered in conveyancing, good luck to them. he who is first shal be last etc ...
  14. Tax law changes are being phased in which see the depletion of benefits in BTLhttps://www.gov.uk/government/news/changes-to-tax-relief-for-residential-landlords , this previously allowed finance costs of mortgages to be off set against rental income, most have a go land lords who jumped without thinking don’t even realise this but it will become more apparent as the costs of tax bills and mortgage rates start to rise over the next 3 years and hit the pockets of greedy landlords, rents are already too high and I think we will see a flood of supply hit the market in apartments and other second property ‘investments’ when the cost of ownership is not covered by rental profit and needs to be subsidised by their Low Northern Ireland salaries. Obviously there will be larger landlords and investment company’s who will take a long term view but most no land lords are have a go hero’s living month to month themselves , who have no idea of their real exposure to debt in the good times that is until their pockets are affected. Throw in the wild card of Brexit and Supply and demand will take care other the rest. Sit tight there is bumpy roads ahead.
  15. A 0.3% decline in growth since the last quarter, but a 1% decline on this time last year is reported?. With my accountants hat on these figures don’t really add up without NI already being in recession ( all be it some smart manipulation of the figures to mask the truth of an overall downward trend). Anyone have thoughts on this or am the only one questioning this?
  16. Brexit looming, interest rates on the turn and Halifax and others trying to put a positive spin on things as if it’s a good thing for people to have less money in their pockets and pay more for a basic necessity of a roof over there head. I think there is a bit of an elephant in the room scenario here, we have not fixed the underlying problems of the economy from 10 years ago, people are still in negative equity from the last boom in NI and wages or opportunities have not increased enough to support any no growth. I think the only thing that has changed is a new wave of millennials to the market who were too young to remember the last rollercoaster and like lambs to the slaughter will get their fingers burnt soon. I think a Brexit nodeal will be the pulling string which unravels the whole ni web of lies pushed by estate agents and backed by cheap credit which will dry up.
  17. Hi I noticed that there seems to be a mini surge in asking prices in the last few months, despite the uncertainty of Brexit having he potential of sending Northern Ireland back to the stone ages in terms of economic prosperity. we also have reports from PWC saying 4% growth per year in house prices https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/ireland/northern-irish-house-prices-to-enjoy-strongest-growth-pwc with one breath, and with the other releasing news reports that lead the sane of us to question how there can be any reason why the housing market cannot be falling apart https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html I constantly hear references to 2007 prices and that we are approaching the pre bust level as if its a good thing, are people insane??? this has lead to almost a lost decade of people in their 30's renting or given up on family life and indeed northern Ireland and moved off to pastures new to fart about Australia etc . I have a feeling that we have been here before, estate agents filled with self importance despite not being able to tie their own shoe laces but feel they are fully qualified to hand out illegal advice such as 'prices can only go up' and 'you cannot loose money ' which I have been told several times yet this breaks about every FCA rule there is. Have we forgotten that ultimately the economy is still on life support with artificially low interest rates, there are no further tools the government can use to regulate inflation and the knock on effects from various sources may cause interest rates to rise and hard, its difficult to see where brexit can come back to bite but its guaranteed not to be as smooth sailing as we have had the last 11years????? anyways rant over, lol does anyone have an opinion on brexit and house prices?????????????????? I am old enough to have lived through the reality of 2007 economic disasters and feel the same thunder in the air around the economy as I did then, the fundamentals of NI wages vs mortgages do not stack up... be afraid ... what goes up must come down
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