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House Price Crash Forum

Jcuk89

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About Jcuk89

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Per earlier post, you’re expecting people here to give a guarantees that prices won’t be forced up again by authorities... how could anyone? I assume you’re not in a position to buy something you want currently, so until you are, why worry about it? Just crack on with your life, save, and when you’re in a position to buy, do it. Now is a great time to be negotiating as prices are falling especially in London. Find the desperate seller.
  2. The problem with this argument is you're assuming that it's the welfare state that's "ruining" people. It could be that other social factors are the cause, but you are linking/blaming the welfare state because it's the correlation you're seeing. And it could be argued that it's worth it for those people that it does help back on their feet and also that 70% figure you say is probably actually much much less. I completely agree with right/left wing being cloudy. I think the easiest way is to decide is whether X believes freedom or equality to be more important, right and left wing, respectively on certain issues. Also one could be "right" fiscally, or "left" socially for example, and it creates an interesting mix.
  3. Bumping this thread from a couple of years ago as I was about to start one the same. Found this post as I was reading through.. a few more of these criteria have no been ticked due to brexit...
  4. Hopefully this is in the right section, I’m interested to get some opinions on my situation below. Pretty sure the sentiment I’m going to get here.. I’m almost 30, earn above average salary, and live zone 2/3 London. Gf and I have been renting and saving a while, and got to the point where can afford to buy.  I’ve always had my eye on the house market anyway and have lived in London pretty much since the last crash. Thanks to this place, and my general interest I’ve seen the signs of the market turning since mortgage approvals dropped in 2016 see this link which summed it up for me at the time. http://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/britains-house-price-crash-2016-predictions-mount/ Since then we’ve seen the government clamp down on money laundering, Stamp duty changes at the top segment and for BTLers, a ton of new unaffordable/overpriced stock above £500k, and Brexit. Finally there is nowhere for them to turn to increase liquidity once demand has started to fall. For me, it’s a perfect storm to drive prices down in the next year. But how far will they go? Now back to my situation, I decided to start looking, thinking that there will be desperate sellers (BTL) and probates on the market, so I could have an opportunity to buy under the market, and rent out a few rooms in a 2/3 bed flat. We can live with friends, offer them reasonable rent, and be throwing money into an investment instead. The question is, how good an investment would it be? We succeeded in our plan and found a flat, 3 bedrooms, for £435k. Flats on the same road (identical build, layout) have gone for over £525k just a few months ago. So we are below the market. This particular seller is desperate to leave and move out of the country. He was a BTL landlord. So. Armed with knowledge that I have a chance to get a flat around 15% below current values, and on a monthly basis would be better off, what should I do? If we buy and prices stay stable, we will be in a great position. I worked out we can afford a further 5-10% drop in value based on the rents we would be saving and income receiving, and be better off after 3 years. Any more than this, and we are better off renting. But I can’t help but fear that this time a crash will be different. The government has thrown everything at it, and things seem to be unravelling at the same time. How bad do you HPCers think it will be?
  5. Very amusing. Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought with HTB, when a flat is sold for a loss, the government loan that needs to be repaid shrinks to reflect the sale price, not the purchase price. So in this case they would be okay to take a hit since they probably only paid 5% deposit. Even more amusing if I am right and they don’t even understand the terms of their own loan/mortgage/house purchase.
  6. It’s above average condition, and completely good to live in now. That’s based on two viewings though.. 😉
  7. It’s above average condition, and completely good to live in now. That’s based on two viewings though.. 😉
  8. If you read carefully, this is a 10% reduction in actual sold prices though. I’m not comparing asking prices to sold prices 10% price reduction in 6 months is significant.
  9. I have a first hand account of a BTLer desperate to get out - Streatham, SW London area by the way I’ve been watching asking price reductions of up to 15-20% in some cases (Foxtons, Dexter’s). I’ve decided to buy now if I can find a desperate seller, buy well under the current market value. We found just that- a three bed first floor flat with a private garden just over 900square ft. Currently let out to students. Identical flats have sold as follows: Jan 2018 - £452,000 but needing complete renovation Jan 2018- £475,000 unknown condition December 2015 - £470,000 average condition Feb 2014 - £386,000 average condition So, it was listed at £475,000 which to be fair was actually already in line with those recent sold prices The BTLer is just so desperate to cash in we had two price reductions, and finally agreed £435,000, all within 2/3 weeks. Still a lot of money, but confident that I’ve at least a 10% buffer on those peak prices.
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