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House Price Crash Forum

ucnvpe0

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Posts posted by ucnvpe0

  1. 2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

    There used to be subsidised housing for workers - but now it goes to people on benefits.

    All workers should have the right for decent housing before people who don't work.

     

    I agree with your sentiment but it's not as simple as it looks. Where should they send the unemployed people?

    Simply moving the problem doesn't get rid of it.

    In some countries, slums are created to solve this problem.

  2. 41 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    Entirely right. The problem is low interest rates, which have pushed up the value of housing as people can afford to borrow more (and the bank creates the money when they loan it to you - perverse, but true). And Quantitative Easing (or more accurately: printing money) has caused the low interest rates. So the government's own stimulus program has caused a massive distortion in the market. It is then trying to correct that distortion by printing even more money and giving (well, loaning, but on very very favourable terms) that money to the people on the other side of the equation - the poor buyers who can't afford the houses. Of course there are other effects, like buy-to-let distortions, foreign buyer distortions (at least in London). But you're indeed right that it's the deposit which is hard to save for and has been locking so many people out.

    I doubt it can go on forever but it's shocking how there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. 

  3. 42 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    Or, as per the article, invest the difference (what you pay towards the principal) in a diverse set of assets elsewhere. The yield on those would pay the rent. So it's no different, except your main asset is undiversified.

    I suspect only a limited number of people can raise the capital to invest. Even mortgage deposits rely heavily on BOMAD or Help to Buy. It's much easier to get a mortgage loan than it is to get an investment loan or save enough in this low interest rate environment.

  4. 5 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

    I know nothing about oil but here are the companies I think of when I hear it mentioned: Shell, BP, Exxon, Total, errr Chevron. Not Venezuelan, right? I suppose my point is that within the time frame of a UK government term I don't believe anyone, not even Mr scary Corbynzilla, could wreck our economy the same way as V or Z - countries that have had decades of pillaging. 

    It's like saying, hey this guy shouldn't have the keys to the Jag because he'll turn it into a 4-pack of single ply bog roll. 

    The people who jump to the "Venezuela/Zimbabwe" argument lack critical thinking. That is the exact scaremongering stories TPTB use to stop anything that might question their position.

    It's the same lazy strategy they used against brexit and look at how that backfired.

  5. 3 hours ago, Pindar said:

    When you think about it, it doesn't matter how much you pay into a pension if the pool of working people shinks every year for the next 10-20 years. Who's going to be available to look after you? The pension system relies on demographic balance and there being a sufficient number of working people to service the non-working.

    You might save hundreds of thousands of pounds over a lifetime, only to find that you don't have enough to meet even your basic needs because prices and the cost of living has gone up exponentially. That's what's caused the scourge of buy-to-let - financially aware boomers realised the problem 20 or more years ago and got stuck in with acquiring all the cheap housing stock. Buy to let is effectively stealing from the young to pay for the futures of the elderly. In doing so it's robbing the young of the opportunity to have enough disposable income to save for a retirement by the mere fact that housing costs are now astronomical.

    I don't know what the answer is but presumably to avoid massive social upheaval, somebody in authority will eventually confiscate the wealth of those who have, in order to avoid mass homelessness that must be invevitable in our system as it currently is.

    Excellent.

    This post summarises very important issues.

    The pension system can mirror a demographic ponzi scheme. It relies on a promise being fulfilled 30-40+ years in the future.

  6. 1 minute ago, thehowler said:

    Been telling you that for a while. Even if we go into some emergency extension of Art 50 it will have to come back to forcing May's deal through or a GE.

    You can see how Labour is finally splitting on Brexit and the idiotic six tests/all options on the table guff is falling apart. Corbs will come under intense pressure - remain-minded members are trying to get an emergency Labour conference - to go for SM or remain, with Tories taking a no-to-SM route.

    Might get some concessions from EU after the first May deal vote fails though, but not looking good.

    My call is that if May's deal fails on 2nd/3rd attempt we'll move to a GE.

     

    Will Tory MPs accept a general election run by May? I think that would tear the party apart.

    If May's deal fails repeatedly and Article 50 is not extended, when is the final deadline to have a solution?

  7. 11 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

    It's impossible to discuss any of this with young people. I had a go with housing this Christmas. Last Christmas it was Bitcoin, though no mention this year. The young people I speak to are clueless about economics. Mind you, so were all the adults come to think about it. Clueless yet thought they knew everything. Oh well.

    What you don't know can't hurt you. Being clueless can help you sleep at night and not worry about the massive debt hanging on your shoulders. 

  8. 4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

    this is pretty key. a shortage of well built decently sized housing which is actually fit for purpose is key. by deliberately building shockingly inadequate housing stock for the last 20 years, they are ensuring demand for years to come for decently built houses.

    It’s looking more and more that the U.K. economy is house prices. If House prices fell to their true value which could easily be 50-60% lower, the pound would be trashed anyway. 

    If you save directly outside of Sterling (via shares, gold, USD etc) you may benefit from a U.K. HPC, but the likelihood that house prices would fall that drastically in Sterling terms is pretty slim. 

    time and time again Sterling has been thrown under the bus to save ‘value’ stored in houses. Central banks are happy to buy their own bonds/debt. 

    too many of the young who are desperate to buy a home are being placated by cheap new-builds, often throwing them straight into instant 30% negative equity from day one. all these schemes are designed to prevent the young from hitting a critical mass. 

    the UK is pretty cruel. the only interesting thing is as the boomers thin out there will be huge quantities of decent houses coming to the market. Houses which had been removed from supply for 40 years. It may just mean those who are sick of tiny new-builds leverage up to the hilt to get an actually liveable house. but that could also mean new build do actually crash, as the total ‘value’ stays in the market but just shifts to the newly released better supply. 

    but how long will that take? 10 years? 20 years? 

    there will always be demand for large well built suitable family homes in places near jobs, whatever currency we use, whatever medium of exchange we use. 

    the scary thing will the shocking quality of new builds will be shown over the next 20 years. as roofs start to bow inwards on the thin timbers, walls crack, cheap plasticky water valves age and fail, walls bow, all the cheap fittings fail. they will start to be seen as the liability they are. And that’s just with houses! God help those who end up in blocks of flats, where most of the flats were never sold, or sold to the council and thus don’t pay maintenance. New roof after 20 years? Over 50 flats? Only 6 or 7 owner occupiers faced with the bill? ouch. 

    I think it’s best to save up 30-40% the value of a house, buy a well built older house which will suit you for the rest of your life. if you can’t get that in the area you live then move, if you can only get paid your wages in expensive areas then your not actually worth very much are you? Retrain and get a proper job. 30-40k is nothing in London, might as well be on 18k someone outside of the south-east, that’s what’s the economy says your worth. 

    Problem is physiologically people see their pay packet in London 30-40k and think they are worth a lot and thus should get a house, but they are already just really on 18k plus ‘London premium’. in that situation it’s not surprising a house cannot be bought. the real test to see if you fall into that category is to look at what your worth outside of London. if you can get the same wages elsewhere might as well move and enjoy life, if you can’t then economically your not very valuable. It’s harsh but true. 

    London is sold in a similar way to 'the American dream'. The land of wealth and opportunities. 

    It takes many people a while to realise that what you've written is true. 

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