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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ucnvpe0

  1. I consider pre-covid to be January/February but there are regional variations. Nobody knows at the moment but we are the closer to a vaccine than ever before. The hope is by summer 2021.
  2. Sadly, it's the kind of market manipulation I can imagine happening. It's crazy.
  3. I think some people lack an awareness of the state of the NHS. If you work at a ward level, it doesn't take much to see that the whole system would have got overwhelmed in the absence of a lockdown. Systems were stretched even before Covid. The situation in the lead up to the lockdown involved a lack of beds & ventilators, increasing rates of staff sickness, lack of PPE, lack of suitable places to discharge patients etc. This must have become obvious to Boris.
  4. 'Don't Fight the Fed'. The money printing is extreme.
  5. Definitely. The house price crash will increase LTVs when it comes to remortgaging.
  6. I think it's just another ideology they want to spread to the masses: - Globalism - Socially liberal - Heavy focus on 'green policies' and the environment - Pro technology
  7. This is ~18months without the impact of furlough and mortgage holidays. Fair to assume it might take 2 years for the full impact?
  8. I was 17 in 2009 ?. I was a lurker from 2016 and started posting in 2018.
  9. Ok that makes sense. I remember you were one of the few on here that called it (BoE to 0 or negative). I thought it would happen too but not in 2020/21. It's a crazy world.
  10. What do you think is the lowest realistic mortgage rate in a NIR environment?
  11. The majority of the population are 'wages slaves'. There is a finite amount of salary within a working life. If housing takes up such a large proportion, where is the pension or retirement money going to come from. This doesn't even factor in the debt culture, student loans, real term wage stagnation, childcare costs etc. In the past, housing was used in part to pay for care costs. What about people who will rent in retirement. If the governments can screw over a whole generation with housing, what's to stop them raiding pension? I think the key is diversifying. Placing all retirement hopes in a private pension is likely to end in major disappointment.
  12. Expected, no surprise here. The BoE are very predictable in their approach .
  13. Good point. I remember statistics a while ago showing almost half of FTBs needed BOMAD.
  14. Sadly I think this will be first of many interventions.
  15. I'm think it will especially when the signs of a 2nd peak appear.
  16. Yes, i suspect the magnitude of the HPC can be hidden via inflation. The problem will be getting wage inflation to keep up. Many of the starting salaries I've seen on offer since 2008 have barely kept up with inflation.
  17. Large falls must happen this time but the response since 2008 has made me cynical.
  18. If ultra low interest rates and QE were originally "temporary". What stops governments continuing the furlough scheme for 6+months or switching to helicopter money like universal benefit for everyone?
  19. It has worked out well for me. The nominal pay cut I took paid for itself by a large factor with much cheaper housing. The ease can depend on the type of job/ career you have. I think the upcoming HPC might be a game changer but location is still something you can consider.
  20. Yes, it a form of the 'least worst option'. First example, in my case it was moving up north to an area I had no connections to.
  21. Having the awareness is the main thing. It lets you make a rational decision based on your personal circumstances. The worst is loading up on unsustainable levels of debt, being ignorant about it and getting caught out (BTLers).
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