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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by ucnvpe0

  1. 13 minutes ago, anonguest said:

    for now at least. Make no mistake about it, 'control' runs through their veins.  NOT exercising control over the public involves them temporarily using will power to deviate from the norm. Rather like an overweight person, with a sweet tooth, can always from time to time manage to abstain from gluttony for short periods before lapsing back into old habits.

    I suspect they have mainstream public support (or at least the electorate). You will see it in the next general election.

    Not so. These progressively increasing powers have been a feature of the landscape since the 20th century - and have accelerated post-WW2.

    Agree. It is actually the establishment that has always held this much power rather than the modern day government. It's just changed form  serfdom, power held by monarchs etc into what we have now.

    Yes. But we also acknowledged the right to be a conscientious objector - without shutting said people out of society.

    Yes, at the risk of facing a court martial.


  2. 9 hours ago, A.steve said:

    I feel this entire debacle has been a woeful trek in a despicable direction.  I hope that civilization can recover... though I certainly empathize with those who can't forgive and forget.  The issue is entirely political and economic in nature... not clinical.  The dark, stark, reality is that, today, there's a lot less trust in "the establishment" - and who can even begin to predict what will be the consequence of that?

    The institutions and cultural norms we have in Britain means the chance of a revolt against the establishment is extremely slim in my opinion. They are in a comfortable position and the majority will continue to support the status quo.

  3. 1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

    The lesson from the private sector is that big employers were able to switch their workforces from expensive DB pensions to cheap DC pensions without having to pump up the salaries to fill the roles. I cannot see why it would be any different in local government.

    In many healthcare professional roles, the private sector pays more than the equivalent job in the NHS.

  4. 51 minutes ago, markyh said:

    My Children already have stocks and shares and crypto investments worth 5 figures each, one is 15, the other 7. 

    The 15 year old had a private primary education that cost her Grandad about £98k from 3-10. The 7 year old had one year of private primary (Reception) and was not suitable, so his "share" is being held back by Grandad for University. 

    I never had a leg up, not my Dad, but my kids are getting leg ups from every direction. 

    It's nice, they will appreciate your work. They will able to maximise their potential and have a more comfortable life. It's part of what makes us all have a happier life. 

  5. 4 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

    Totally agree. It of course varies across England but engaging with the NHS (unless you turn up in A&E) isn't easy for many. The NHS is 'wonderful' until you actually try and engage with it for a non emergency reason.

    My elderly mum's GP practice only accepts contact by phone - no emails or electronic contact. The phone is constantly engaged all day every day - recently we were collectively trying to get through to them for 3 days without success to obtain results of a heart condition test she had had 3 weeks before. I just gave up and drove her round there - and insisted they deal with it and we finally got answers as a last resort!

    Same time every time we need to contact them about anything. Their systems are dreadful and they have no follow up systems - we spoke to the GP yesterday who was going to follow up for a second opinion from a consultant and were told that we should follow up in 2 weeks if we hadn't heard back. They won't contact you when they hear back from the consultant - you must keep trying them (even if you have no idea if and when the consultant has responded).

    So its constantly on you to push, chase, spend hours on the phone and generally make a nuisance.

    But if you are a vulnerable elderly person with no one to push and chase for you - you are essentially left to rot. I wonder how many elderly living alone with no one (and there are millions of them) are suffering or dying literally from neglect and an inability to engage with the NHS as they cannot get through to speak to their local surgery.

    And to think we spent £40bn on track and trace (the sum raised from the new NI rise for nearly four years) - how about a system to allow you to track and trace your GP and your non Covid related test results!

    Where did all that money go - how about a supertax on those firms and people who received that £40bn to fund social care?


    Yes. To get effective outcomes you have to manage your own care sadly. Knowing the system helps and you always have to chase things.

  6. 1 hour ago, byron78 said:

    Surely not?


    I understand VAT increase and a lot of the other stealth taxes will have hit others (not to mention how high rents and property prices are now), but surely most people's wages have kept up?

    With all this the snake oil salesmen will convince people they work in their best interests.

  7. 31 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    The last 12 months has seen lending fall to nothing - Q2-A3 20, followed by  a temporary blip Q320-Q1/2 21.

    When all the noise settles down after the SD holiday and furlough ends, youll get a better idea where lending is going.

    At the moment, bar HSBC, all the banks are having to pay more for their capital.

    Theres also a weird thing that only occurred in the last few years.

    For ~12 months one bank suddenly decides its going to lend load. This continues for ~12 months then stops dead. AFAICT the BoE has a word and the bank disappears from the lending tables.

    Cov BS did thisa few years back.

    Then Nationwide.

    Now, in a minor way, Leeds BS.




    I remember around 2016-17 when you made it seem like 'MMR will crush lending'. Here we are today seeing lower rates, higher prices and no major issue with mortgage lending. 

    I wish we weren't in this position but that is reality.

  8. 2 hours ago, Debt Slaves said:

    An couple excerpts from an FT article posted yesterday, linked below.  At least this is being bought up in a big publication, but it looks like they disabled comments for this article.  Wonder why? 

    The Conservative party has received almost £18m in donations from 154 donors with property interests since Boris Johnson became UK prime minister two years ago, according to Financial Times analysis.

    The donations made by individuals and companies in the property sector — which account for a quarter of total donations made to the Tory party since July 2019 — come as Johnson pushes ahead with a contentious liberalisation of England’s planning system which critics say could benefit housing developers.....

    The analysis includes all company donors and those who have given over £100,000 but excludes hundreds of individuals who gave smaller amounts, meaning the true figure could be higher....



    I bet it will reach 50%+ over the next decade. In reality, anyone who votes or has voted for the Conservatives has contributed to a secure house price inflation policy.

  9. 37 minutes ago, Locke said:

    I don't know what your position was regarding LTV and income ratio.

    I'm saying that for someone with a 10-20% deposit, they are not getting a shorter than 35 year mortgage, if they can even get one.

    Depends where in the country they buy and what expectations they have. 25year mortgage with 10-20% deposit is still feasible in part is the Midlands, up North, Scotland etc.

  10. 43 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    And there's the billion dollar question, where is all this spare consumer cash going to end up.

    If we have all this inflationary spending on houses and other stuff ongoing, then eventually either (1) it will stop like the BoE say it will or (2) it won't and they'll raise rates.

    Either way it will stop being funneled into property somehow. But exactly how and when I cannot say.

    Yeah, we live in an strange era.

  11. 1 hour ago, Dweller said:

    From a purely personal perspective it is all very depressing and I can't see this improving only getting more and more mad if rates go negative. 
    In 2019 when we foolishly put our property on the market the agent said that anything over £230,000 was difficult to shift now those properties are £280,000 + so what happened? 

    ...two effects have driven that change: first, the direct effects it has had on saving and borrowing behaviour; and second, the indirect effects on the value of household balance sheets through asset price changes. In aggregate, households have increased nominal savings by around £125billion more than would have been expected absent the pandemic and at the same time, non-credit card consumer debt has fallen by around £10 billion.


  12. 5 hours ago, msi said:

    True, but if you also predicted the opposite - that the Government would spend Tens of Billions to support housebuilders, get the BoE to absorb 25% of the National debt, and run a deficit not seen since WW2 to keep low IRs and to protect house prices you'd be accused of living in a 'socialist' fantasy.

    It's a crazy situation and I hate what's happened but you can't beat the system. 

    The government/ elite will throw everything under the bus to keep house prices/ asset prices high. For them house prices = the economy.

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