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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Unmoderated

  1. It really is not. Take an extreme example, all boomers and 65+ don't turn pout next election and 100% of under 50s do vote. Flying blind the govt wouldn't make a change to its manifesto prior to the GE but once the demographics are revealed what do you think they'll do work to keep those that can be bothered to vote or not? I had hoped Brexit would be the wakeup call for the young since they're more keen (generally) to want to Remain but I guess many assumed it wouldn't go the way it did (although I actually was in favour of leaving mainly because it'd take the wind out of the sails of the housing market and enable me and other 'younger' people to buy) so why bother turning out? But as I said, I've given up explaining this. Don't vote, it's your choice of course but it used to pain me to be left on the pile with that younger demographic and getting screwed over with them all. Since being able to afford to buy somewhere though this bothers me less. The intergenerational injustices still irritate me but that's not within my control. I'll just live my life but if I ever could make one single law it would be that it's a lawful requirement to cast a vote in a general election. It is truly the only way that you get the government to take account of all people. In my view it isn't a right but a responsibility and obligation.
  2. This is the tail wagging the dog. They vote, therefore they're looked after and not the other way around. All that needs to happen is all the tenants and low paid vote and suddenly the party looks at how they keep that vote. No brainer that both main political parties support triple lock pensions, winter fuel allowances, free public transport for pensioners. Doesn't stop there, your statutory redundancy pay is enhanced over a certain age too and you can play the ageist card too. Clearly, older people have lived and worked for longer and you'd therefore expect them generally to have accumulated more wealth but not at the expense of younger people. Other end of the spectrum young people are left to fend for themselves, restricted access to benefits (under 25 IIRC), huge loans for university education, high rental costs. Seems that the majority don't get the message until their mid 30s. I can't find easily data on tenants voter turnout versus homeowner for the same ages but being in less secure accommodation makes voting hard since you have to continually re-register.
  3. I've given up explaining this to 'young people. As I approach my 40s there are still many people I went to college with who explain they'll only vote when there's someone 'worth voting for'. They simply don't understand that i they don't vote they don't count. Young people, renters, lower earners are all less likely to vote so the govt gives zero sh!ts about them. Older people (not just boomers but they're now in that age bracket and there's lots of them), homeowners (still outnumber tenants by far) and higher earners all tend to be more likely to vote.... so we have millionaires on state pensions and winter fuel allowances while we have young impoverished people paying all their wages for education and rent. You don't vote? You don't count!
  4. All the while letting the banks run amok! Literally couldn't have played it better by hand!
  5. Norway is an interesting one. Fewer (significantly fewer) people, same oil reserves give or take but crucially did not join the EU and has a pretty good immigration policy. Interestingly it also has a 10% better income to house price ratio. https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/rankings_by_country.jsp UK is 21 which although not the best is still top 10%. China has a larger economy but could UK really maintain its global dominance?
  6. and rampant property price inflation is the way to ensure you stay in power. UK house prices rose the most under Tony Blair’s tenure (211.3%) followed by that of Margaret Thatcher. Prices rose by 187.9% during her time at No.10 and bear in mind that the latter presided over a period of far, far higher inflation. Can't easily find the data but I'd be amazed if prices have risen (on average) more than 60% since Labour left office to today but happy to be corrected.
  7. Nice post, but.... What was the total cost of ownership in 1971 versus today? Factor in mortgage rates etc and how does that compare? How hard was it to get a mortgage in 1971? Even in the 1980s I recall going to the bank with my dad on a weekend and he'd put on his best suit with the Alan Partridge brass buttons (WTF Dad!?) just to chat to the bank manager! These days Wayne and Waynetta can fill out an application with tattooed hands and still get accepted. Wage suppression is a big factor, but so too is the low inflation world that flows from offshoring. I am able to buy virtually anything I like and it's affordable.... and I am not a rich guy. outside of lockdowns I can travel, have a new car, all manner of electronic devices and gadgets, bikes, equipment, the list goes on and on. While wages have not kept up with gold (literally who cares about gold) they have more than kept up with pretty much everything you want to buy. A stark contract to my childhood and certainly a harsh contrast to my parents growing up. What did a whole chicken and a bottle of champagne cost in 1971 versus today.... for instance. The argument above sounds like one for protectionism rather than trade which would add everything else to that list of what isn't affordable. I put to you the counterargument. It is not the supply of housing and the demand for it, but rather the supply and demand of cheap and easy credit. As for the government - I've had this argument with @Venger years ago. It is not politically acceptable to allow house prices to crash, it always leads to a recession. What's good for wannabe homeowners isn't so good for everyone else and even if it is good for them they don't think it is. The sad thing is that pumping prices to the moon is the easiest way to make people (homeowners and voters) 'feel' wealthier. Keep them feeling like everything is going well and they'll keep voting for you and keep spending. The minute they feel less wealthy they stop spending, everyone else starts to feel the pinch, recession and the party in power generally gets kicked out. My theory for what it's worth is that prices are ludicrously high to keep everyone on that treadmill of work and earning to keep paying income tax (PAYE is possibly the least salient of all taxes - people can probs tell you their council tax to the nearest £100 or even £10 versus no general idea of total IT and NI over the year). It's the workers that keep the money coming into government while everyone with capital (or just a modest house all paid for) can get by with relative ease. If you can't afford to buy then you'll need to rent and that's an treadmill on an incline! If houses were 'cheap' I'd probably be set up and just messing about in my garden, brewing beer and reading books in a hammock but then again I might just have done what I've already done and bought the most expensive house I can afford... it would just mean I got a nicer place in a nicer part of town.
  8. Their biggest contribution seemed to be waiting for winter. 25 million dead though. Crazy!
  9. The BTC crowd might well be wishing for the CGT consideration when they're selling at a loss
  10. If someone has already executed us? The so called dead man's hand. In another example where you nuke a less capable target. North Korea for instance.... or a non-nuclear power. Regardless of their cost they are significantly cheaper than a full blown conventional war.
  11. You say that.... but my general view was the yanks played a blinder. Get Britain to mortgage its empire and pay the US with R&D. In return get US industrial might and when the war is won America emerges as the unipolar power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tizard_Mission
  12. As one of my army friends wisely said..... Never. Invade. A. Landlocked. Country.
  13. B&Q and Screwfix have been flat out in my experience. I just did a large project in the garden and B&Q (and Wickes) had no quick set cement. Looked like the place had been gutted but not sure if knock on from Suez? I guess with people at home all this time they're noticing more all the stuff that has to be done. I've spent weeks over the past year sorting out quite an overgrown garden and some crazy layouts on the driveway plus various other stuff that just needed to be dealt with. I guess now though people are out in the beer gardens rather than their own?
  14. and time, but I agree with you and that way of eating for sure! One day I'll grow as much of my own food as I can.
  15. Sometimes worth sucking it up for a year or two to get up another rung on the ladder. That said I know people who have maybe taken one too many promotions and regret it.
  16. Yes, I was joking ... and congrats! Do you think it'll be as enjoyable as your current role?
  17. Totally agree, and there's a cheeky hybrid here with people like 'Eat Fresh'. We started doing it when lockdown closed the restaurants and we love it. No waste as you get the exact right amount of ingredients and cook a big variety of dishes from scratch - learn all the basics as you go and it all tastes great! Order online, delivered to your door in a chilled box. For us a gamechanger.
  18. haha, yes I can't disagree with that. But the children will misbehave if you take away the rules.
  19. On the finance and sales operations side I can confirm there's a lot of demand for people right now especially with SalesForce experience. People are leaving for 20% increases. Crazy. We had a stellar Q1 from a sales standpoint too. Not at all what I'd have expected this time last year.
  20. haha, in part lol I have taken a look at the debt. Question; what caused it?
  21. Interesting view, but the unions don't really get economics. I imagine they're still shocked about coal mines not being commercially viable at £150K/year per miner.
  22. Probably not enough politicians to warrant a new qualification being set up and I guess most are lawyers who ain't too hot at maths (commercial lawyers in my experience at least). Ideology is a hard one. Thatcher for instance is viewed by many as the most competent PM we had in 20th century. The view is that her political and economic ideology was born out of her humble beginnings that reinforced self reliance etc.... no such thing as society etc. But as an Oxford Chemistry graduate she sure as heck could add up. Tories have presided over more recessions than Labour and have borrowed more than Labour, though the argument against has been that they've spent far longer in power (true) and have also swept to power following a fairly calamitous economic scenario after a Labour government. My tuppence is that I'd trust the blues with the economy more than I'd trust the reds, especially given it's the unions that picks the head of the Labour party (remember David and Ed Miliband saga?).
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