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Unmoderated

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  1. 16 minutes ago, msi said:

    You made do without the latest iphone and no avocado toast ?  - Someone call Geldoff, this has to change.

    Haha, it is possible but I was mid thirties and a super saver. I graduated with my student loan in my ISA (worked to fund uni and lived at home to save rent). Didn't do a gap-yah and all the other wanky stuff. No new cars, nothing on finance, not even a phone. Only debt is the mortgage. 

    Arguably others have had far more fun 'living for today' but I'm (finally) about to start the next step of my plan which is to renovate, extend, flip and repeat. Tax free gains to buy my house so I don't pay a penny as it were. 

    Just an average guy trying to be smart and beat the system. 

  2. On 15/07/2021 at 14:16, Unmoderated said:

    Quite!

    I wont come off IO unless I have to now. Once house is done I'll simply salary sacrifice the £40K max into a pension and then pay off my mortgage tax free when I take the full PCLS at 25% of the pension pot. 

    Once house is done I might even sell it, cash in and buy something in the South West mortgage free and just live the life. Newly single, no kids (that I know of) and just want an easy and quiet life. 

    Correction - interest only is quite hard to get (which is good). 

    However, I can borrow another £40K and get a 5 year fixed at 1.25% which means my payments actually go DOWN!

  3. 14 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

    Makes so much sense. I am currently on 1.7% repayment and would much rather be doing IO even for the same rate. IO at a lower rate is a no brainer. I need that money for "home improvements in the future". In other words I'll just keep shoving all the excess into global equity tracker and pay the mortgage back in full in 10 years time.

    Quite!

    I wont come off IO unless I have to now. Once house is done I'll simply salary sacrifice the £40K max into a pension and then pay off my mortgage tax free when I take the full PCLS at 25% of the pension pot. 

    Once house is done I might even sell it, cash in and buy something in the South West mortgage free and just live the life. Newly single, no kids (that I know of) and just want an easy and quiet life. 

  4. 2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

    1% IO mortgage at 75% LTV?

    Where is that because I'd jump on that?

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/best-buys/?journeyType=remortgage&propertyValue=500000&mortgageAmount=375000&term=30&repaymentMethod=InterestOnly&sortBy=MonthlyRepaymentAmount&pageNumber=1&addFeeToBalance=false&productNoFee=false&noEarlyRepaymentCharge=false

    Knock yourself out :).

    I need to the money for home improvements rather than being a feckless debt junky buying a Range Rover Sport ;).

    Getting paid to borrow in real terms. 

  5. On 13/07/2021 at 14:18, markyh said:

    Then the title should read, "Cheap mortgages have ended for pissy poor people who have awful LTV levels" 

    Us in the 10%-50% LTV camp still have thousands of cheap deals, because the market can fall 50% , and they can still sell our house and get 100% back if we default. 

    Yes indeed, I'm looking at a 75% LTV in October Interest Only (taking out a chunk to help fund improvements). I'm seeing deals barely over 1%! Still getting paid to borrow. 

  6. 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/06/soaring-covid-costs-rate-rises-put-public-finances-peril-obr/

     

    Sunak warned over threat to national debt from rate rises

     

    that'll be the people invested heavily in property warning the chancellor, who is heavily invested in property, that if he raises IRs people heavily invested in property will lose out.

    These ****s are going to go -ve before this collapses.

    I'd bet on it but then the world is turned on it's head. 

    The past two years has just been insane.... and to think I thought about selling up when I split with my ex! Pure luck I decided to stay for another two years while they've been renting/living with fam and friends I think these past couple of years. 

    I'll be re-mortaging soon and I'll be interested in just what's happening in the mortgage market when I trawl through it. 

  7. 54 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    I thought this would be from rightmove but it's nationwide !!!!

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/jun/29/uk-house-prices-june-stamp-duty-cars-steel-gfg-stock-markets-ftse-pound-business-live

    "The latest numbers from Nationwide showed house prices rising a further 0.7% in June. This lifted the annual increase to 13.4%, the highest since November 2004. A boost to demand from buyers rushing to beat the phasing out of the stamp duty holiday no doubt played a role in pushing prices up."

    VI shysters jumpiong on the bandwagon to say prices will keep going up.  it really is different this time.


    What the **** is happening ?

     

     

    The consequence of blowing half a trill into the economy in twelve months. Paying people to do nowt is inflationary, chucking money at 'businesses' is an expansion of credit which is inflationary on expansion (but not so much when it needs paying back - but you guessed it, they wont be paying that back will they?).

    This is insane though. I say that as someone that bought in 2017 in the wake of the Brexit vote when the market had calmed a bit, and as someone wanting to take equity out shortly to fund a large extension and refurb. 

    It's mental though. Talking to my brother over the weekend who has three young kids and told me he'll be putting £100 a month for each of them into a savings account so they can use as a house deposit when they're older. I said (not half jokingly) he'd be better off buying a holiday cottage and renting it out plus getting free holidays so that in 25 years he's got a place probably fully paid off which could be split three ways and then you've got a substantial deposit for them. Money is so cheap right now why wouldn't you?

  8. 10 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    Well good on him for that!  But my point is I feel more angry about billionaires who have inherited obscene amounts of property from their grandparents than billionaires who have built their own business from scratch.  I use Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Teams at work and they are great.  What has the Duke of Westminster ever done for me? :D

    100% agree. Tax all transfers of wealth at the same marginal rate. Income, CGT, inheritance - the lot. You inherit £100K and earn £150K a year you'll pay 45% on all of that inheritance. 

  9. On 09/06/2021 at 08:47, hurlerontheditch said:

    wha a silly decision. should have leased and even then will be BIK.

    Yeah, so he avoided the BIK and just literally bought the car and banged the full cost through as an expense!

    On 09/06/2021 at 08:54, spyguy said:

    Id doubt he bought it.

    Hed have leased it and put the monthly rent thru the books.

     I see this gormless fwittery all the time - you get idiots who put so much thru the books that when they are not earning the leases on everything suck up all the cash and bankrupts the company.

    He bought it. My former colleague actually viewed his filed accounts. 

    Unbelievable. 

  10. 30 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

    It’s a genuine point you make. I believe this is how they probably justify things to themselves. I also think it is how the world justifies and accepts crony capitalism ie not real capitalism. 

    But like a BTL landlord….they tell everyone they provide housing for the ‘many’ therefore they should get tax perks.

    Overall a billionaire will believe they have made their contribution in one way or another. They will definitely believe they can use their money better than any government.   

    I am a hypocritical liberal leftie but more of the champagne socialist type. I believe the strong should support the weak…however less inclined to be a full leftie (as per the right press might describe) and therefore don’t support ethics where the hard working to support the lazy.

    So I have a lot of time for those who take risks and generate wealth for themselves and others.

    My income this year will be a laughably low amount, I have enough capital to draw no income at all for another 20 years and if that’s what I choose to do then I justify it because it’s what the public want. And I thank them.

    What we need is an unavoidable tax paid in a flat and fair rate by all. Once you introduce higher rates it’s just an incentive to mitigate the tax position.

    I think the key here is the extremes that it isn’t that some billionaires are not paying much tax….it is that some billionaires, with I am sure massive personal spending throughout the year pay absolutely NO TAX. Buying yachts, houses, clothes, cars etc all through the guise of ‘business expenses’. 

    Not just billionaires. Colleague of mine (chartered accountant) knows of a contractor that probably makes £80K a year tops. Last year he bought a new 3 series and expensed it through his books and took a full tax deduction. That is of course not allowed but who is checking?

  11. 18 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

    I seem to remember the SA authorities ruling out the AZ vaccine because it didn't offer enough protection against their variant. It may just be that we need a variety of vaccines in play, to stop major outbreaks. In the meantime it seems a bit foolish to kill people's livelihoods and futures with enforced lockdowns. Let people make their own choices.

    Kinda agree there's a limit to all this but a third of deaths were in care homes that were locked down. What is lost on this argument is that your choices have impacts on others who don't have a choice. 

    Furthermore the greater the number infected the greater the incidence of variants. With mutations it is a numbers game. 

  12. In honesty my plan hasn't changed. 

    I used Brexit lull to buy a place and get a good number off the asking price (still too much but what can you do?). It was a project house too but with lots of things they just aren't making in new houses unless you spend big. Open fire, very large plot, rear vehicle access for camper or boat or whatever and walking distance of town. 

    My plan is to finish extending and renovating, sell it tax free and find another, then maybe do one last one and end up with a modest house in a nice location with a nice garden all paid for with tax free capital gain. I'm not running on their treadmill to pay for the boomers and all the younger hangers on a second longer than I need to.

    That's my plan anyway. 

  13. 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    We're at an end, I am at least, TPTB clearly wont stop down this path of HPI/QE/Spending/Handouts/Immigration

    Furlough, might not stop, ever

    Inflation, to be looked through

    10% yoy house price rises, they say they're concerned while bringing in 95 state backed sub prime mortgages to support them

    Country in lockdown, Estate agents open ( that really is the maddest thing I've ever heard )

    £895Bn stolen in 1 year.

    Interest rates now at 0.1% and quite frankly they can't raise them without destroying themselves, so they wont.

    Saving rates destroyed by the BoE deliberately to get people to spend/buy houses/take on more debt

    Country £3 Trillion debt, at least

    Ex-GS banker waiting to become PM

    Ex-GS banker stating publicly he wants to stop people hoarding money...while he hoards it himself !!!

    MORE mass immigration

    LESS Freedom

    Everyone talking Inflation now.

    Class divide/Age divide/Religious Divide...country is divided and conquered. 

     

    Have I missed anything ?

     

    So, I think It's time to accept there is a rapidly dwindling chance of a nominal house price crash, the inflation will see to the inevitable correction but at the same time, with interest rates stuck at 0.1% your savings are going to be wiped out.

     

    So, folks, what's your plan going forward ?   

     

    Our plan is ....we are going to get every penny out the bank after October this year, we will have to buy a house in the UK now just to hedge the inflation issue, might as well wait for the fallout from the SDC to happen first.  If furlough is not extended then we might extend that date 6 months.

    I've sold up out shares at the moment and will wait till this time next year to decide to re-invest them all in dividend yielding shares and use that as retirement income, a U.S. collapse could see share prices hit badly here, though the UK is nowhere near over priced as the U.S. tech stocks, they are the ones that should lead a collapse.

    We are going to buy 2 places abroad just so the money is out the UK, flights booked.

    Will put more into gold/diamonds and other sell-able assets.

    Will hold a chunk to buy index linked gilts when the U.S. is forced to raise IR....if I can time the time of the rate rises then there's a pension right there.

    It saddens me that a government can be so corrupt and one sided in their approach to running a country, but it is what it is.

     

    So, folks, what's your plan ?

    If you don't have one, then you need to get one, the housing bubble/bank collapse has gone way past any sane outcome now.

    My plan is to sell the second you buy. You are the uberest permabear. If you're capitulating it's 1929.

  14. 3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    The mania has been there for some time, hence the HousePriceMania twitter feed warning everyone, but, definitely, this is something new, something even more crazy.

    The prices before CV19 were sickening, supported by our taxes and low IRs but now they are loco, crazy, detatched from any kind of reality or affordability, maybe people think they are saving even more money by getting 3% off a higher price :lol: 

    There is literally nothing up for sale round us now that's not crazy priced

    There was a whole load of top end houses that were unsold for 2 years and prices were steadily coming down. 

    We offered sensible money on a couple and I think one of them was just about to bite...then the CV19 house price mania took off.....EVERYTHING and i mean EVERYTHING that had lingered unsold on the markets for 2  years+ all sold in days.

    I've witnessed some stuff in my time but this is proper end of the world mania bubble stuff.

     

    Agree Count, it's crazy! There was always a few on within 1/4mile of my house but now nothing at all. Every board is sold! The only stuff available is crappy newbuild flats being sold (probably the owners are looking to buy something else). 

    Place opposite me sold for £900K - much nicer and slightly bigger than mine but that's more than double what I paid. I could probably get mine to that standard with £100K. 

    I am starting to think a spot of inflation is coming. 

  15. 19 hours ago, GregBowman said:

    That's where I get to. Runaway inflation requires runaway prices or rather runaway sold prices. Too much wage money chasing too few goods but how is that going to happen ? People are coming around to using less anyway (witness the drop in car ownership with the under thirties), automation, globalisation and disintermediation are here to stay all suppressers of wages in developed countries. Just an example I am a motorbike fan and in this months issue of Bike there is a 100pcp deals feature. I thought it was a misprint but the cheapest £36 a month for a brand new Royal Enfield compare that to the cost of bike ownership in the 70's/80's. Deposit £500. All the deals have deposits of around £1500 -£2k. If you wanted a bike you could use instead of a car 'a proper bike' the range is massive from Yamaha MT09 to Triumphs, BM's , Dukes and all the big four Japanese brands. Suzuki GSX 1000 £136 a month BMW F900XR £115 (none of these on giveaway interest either all 6-8%) if that's not deflation in a nutshell I don't know what is - even out and out exotica seems in reach Kawasaki z H2 SE (supercharged) £247 or  KTM 1290 Super Duke GT £252

    Crazy cheap on the Enfield.... might have to get one! Maate of mine had a Himalayan and then swapped it for an Interceptor.  

  16. 15 hours ago, A.steve said:

    I've highlighted the bit I think is wrong-headed.  If the lenders are underwritten by the state (which, effectively they are) and the state makes it clear that they want loans to be made - the loans can be made.  If there are no rational creditworthy borrowers - no problem... just allow people to create limited liability shell-companies and load them up with debt.  Sure, the debts they create will include substantial bad debts... but that fact only needs to be realised long after the 'loans' have been made and used to pay out big dividends.  The only thing that constrains reckless lending is political will.

    There is nothing inherent in the system that means wages must track 'inflation'... for two reasons.  First, 'inflation' is a nebulous concept - and we can formalize a measurement of it so as to exaggerate or hide it.  Second, there is nothing in the system to prevent poor people getting poorer.  Wages can fall and the cost of living can rise - and people's standard of living falls.  Nothing precludes this possibility - beyond 'political will'.

    The exact inverse, however, is probably the case.  Inflation (at least some measurements of it) will be greatly influenced by wages - especially wages to the lowest socio-economic groups.  The reason for this is that these groups have scant opportunity to invest their income and are readily exploited.  Think of it this way: if you knew your tenants had no other options - but had just been handed an extra £5,000 increase in disposable income... why wouldn't you want to put their rents up by (at least) £2,500?

    Racking my brains trying to find an example in history where wage inflation was flat while consumer price inflation was rampant but I can't. 

    You can't force a bank to lend nor a consumer to borrow. It is pushing on a string. If it wasn't so difficult Japan wouldn't have had coming up three decades of pretty much flat growth. 

    Prices can't continually rise beyond the point at which people can afford to pay for things. 

  17. On 16/05/2021 at 08:10, A.steve said:

      I wrote: You increase the amount of debt - or, as experts call it: "the money supply". as explain how prices can rise arbitarily.

    Well - it depends what you mean by "Doesn't work" and "not sustainable".

    It is "not sustainable" in the sense that it causes an ongoing change... one that heaps risk on financial institutions (and the governments that support them) to the advantage of economically inactive owners of substantial assets. On the other hand, it is "sustainable" in the sense that it minimises social mobility - it promotes a feudal-style system in which a tiny number of people control the bulk of the assets - while the vast majority are their serfs.  I'm reminded of the Old Testament biblical Exodus... Apparently, such a situation had emerged in Egypt... and it failed when the down-trodden stole everything they could find and left to form new communities elsewhere.  The bad news is, today, the vast expanses of ungoverned land don't exist... and it would be much more difficult for serfs to simply bake some unleavened bread and ride off into the sunset leaving the establishment in-the-lurch.

    I would argue that it has been proven to work.  If one permits/encourages monetary expansion - then, assuming the government can maintain authority (which, itself, depends on mechanisms beyond the monetary system) the nominal value of any asset accepted as collateral can rise to an arbitrary level.  Where such policies are adopted, there might, or might not, be increases in wages.  Whatever drives wages higher, it is not an increased availability of credit.  Perhaps a 'revolution' (or a war or a pandemic) might result in substantially increased general wages - but, then, almost certainly, this would be financed by fresh government borrowing.  If you really think about it, all nominal increases correlate strongly with increased debt.  The only question that really matters is this:  Who gets to take responsibility for the debt - and who enjoys the monetary assets this creates?

    P.S. I think "Sustainable Development" (actively promoted by trans-national organizations today) correlates with my dystopian interpretation of 'sustainable' - rather than your (probably) optimistic (but, I feel, somewhat misguided) hope that incomes must correlate with asset prices.

     

    What I mean is you can't have continued feedback of inflation without a corresponding inflationary increase in wages. Sure, you can fire money at people with cheap debt but that's pushing on a string and you can only load debt up to the limit where lenders will lend so for continued high inflation I believe you do need a corresponding increase in wages. 

  18. 8 hours ago, Locke said:

    Are you joking? Wages have been stagnant for 25 years in the UK and yet house prices have tripled.

    Lower interest rates and longer terms are the primary cause for this and means wages have become disconnected from house prices. Hence rental yields (which are strictly limited by wages) being the lower side of nothing.

    They haven't lol!

    I'm talking about CPI inflation anyway, not asset price inflation. CPI is what BoE targets with interest rates. 

    Rental prices have increased though which sort of conflicts with your comment about no increase in wages. 

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