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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. 2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

    Is anyone on here who benefits from this going to try to actually defend this?
    I've benefited from this a little, along with many friends and colleagues.

    I can't remember anyone, including my accountant, explaining how it was fair or reasonable.  More along the lines of use it ASAP while its still there.

    A straightforward reverse Robin Hood job.


    I would defend in so far as it's a deferral of tax on income. What is given relief today is taxed tomorrow. If you take your pot into draw-down then anything withdrawn after the PCLS (max 25% tax free lump sum) is taxable as if it were earnings. It is an incentive people saving for their retirement and possibly future care bills. 

    Your accountant was probably trying to minimise your tax liability for the year. 


    What is most likely is the full removal of the pension scheme as is - 20% and 40%. The reason being this is cashflow negative for the government, they give you your relief at the point of saving. 

    Instead I would bet we'l see a pension ISA of sorts whereby some incentive is provided for you to save into a retirement ISA (possibly just a removal of the £20k annual limit). This is cash flow positive for the govt. They do not provide the relief now only to have to tax it later. 

  2. 1 hour ago, blackhole said:

    Moody's have been proven correct so far - data trickling in is showing missed payments on CMBS and resi sky rocketing overnight.  With 30m+ jobless combined.... lets see.

    I disagree here; I think we'll see both.  

    Your assuming that money supply flows and makes its way to consumers.  The bailouts / printer go brrrr is for the 0.10%, not us.  See last 10 years of wage stagnation and record low saving levels as a good example of that in action.   

    Hence the quick "bail out workers" response in certain countries to help people through this - the government understand that the average worker doesn't posses savings.  

    Yeah, time will tell on the first points so it's only my view. I do not think you're wrong on the second point but I think more will come from inflation than nominal.... if that makes sense?

    What i see over the last ten years is anyone wanting to borrow lots of money for low cost (often under inflation) can do so. In 2013 wen unemployment headed down you got a mini boom in the housing market. Not exactly the 0.1% but I take the sentiment that it will be a tiny fraction of people who take the big bucks benefits of all this. 

    Most people I know (I'm mid thirties) do have some savings but they also have a whopping great big mortgage so they're not fussed about inflation providing interest rates remain low. There are some shocking stats out there on the number of young(er) people who do not have savings. Something like 2 out of three have nothing. 


  3. 3 minutes ago, blackhole said:

    Liquidity from the government wont necessarily result in a faster vaccine.   I don't think they can print ones way out of this - see the oil sector as a reflection of serious job destruction for example. 

    For 2008 level issues - sure I'd actually agree with what your saying (as banks to ride it out).  From what I can see from the likes of Moody's etc its appearing closer to 30%+ defaults within months being projected.  Be interesting to see if they can ride that sort of level out...

    I'm not sure the central banks can bail out everything due to the sheer scale and impact, is what i'm saying.

    I agree, you cannot print a vaccine.... that certainly wasn't my point. The point is they've flooded the market with liquidity, paying people to sit at home doing nothing and cut rates to 0.1% all of which would normally be highly inflationary. Point being the minute you get a vaccine/breakthrough/effective treatment the toothpaste is out of the tube and very difficult to put in but surely better than a Great Depression. 

    I also agree you cannot print wealth. The bail outs would only be a delay and rolling up of interest payment. Delay and pray or extend and pretend. 

    As for Moody's predictions haha - what did they say about CDOs in 2007? They can't even assess a standard bag of securities with historic data, let alone make a reliable prediction about something like this going forwards. 

    What I expect we get is a price adjustment in real terms but no substantial nominal movement. 

  4. 40 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

    Haven't you just answered your own question though? If most of the people losing jobs are effectively people in zero hours or similar which are designed to be disposable and fluctuate with demand, how does that impact house prices when the only people using mortgages are relatively steadily employed younger people and an increasingly smaller proportion of landlords?

    Of course there's anecdotal evidence of cuts in more senior jobs but broadly speaking what I'm seeing (from a role which involves exposure to a lot of different organisations) is that people are trying to keep hold of experienced staff or those with money invested in them as trainees so they can try to hit the ground running as and when a sense of normalcy returns. 

    Despite the blanket assumption that if the US sneezes the world catches a cold, the Yanks are not the best comparators as their approach (loading up unemployment benefits rather than trying to encourage employers to keep jobs alive) is different to Europe. 

    Agree with both of your posts. I do think Air bnb and some landlords are in for a rough time but I expect the banks will be told to delay and pray on those debts or the govt will take them for a discount maybe. 

    I bought a few years ago. While it's a bit of a rough house (fixer-upper) it's in a nice town with a fab garden and lots of space inside. I've been dreaming of extending and redeveloping for a few years until we got locked in and I've never loved this place so much. I certainly can't imagine being stuck in the tiny flat i rented while I saved up for this. 

    I've had a 10% salary cut effective 1 May (global finance role in large software company) but other than that it's all good and actually I'm at least saving that reduction by not being able to go out. 

    Plus the government has already thrown so much liquidity into the system and eased monetary policy that I can see inflation as a problem... possibly even stagflation. If a vaccine or treatment breakthrough or some other good news (maybe 75% of us have had it and it's going to fizzle out regardless like Sars 1) it'll be guns blazing for anything debt driven until they pull that liquidity back in but I expect they'll use the lagging unemployment numbers as justification enough to delay that as long as possible.

    Personally it'd be sweet if I could get a nice remortgage deal next year when my fixed term is up :) 

  5. 5 minutes ago, longgone said:

    No hindsight needed they knew exactly what was going on. 

    So then it begs the question - why? Strengthen government power over the people with a legitimate excuse? As tragic as a death is it's not like we;'re losing thousands of people every day who are in their prime?

    Difficult to pick a winner through all of this. Cui bono is always my preferred starting point. 

  6. 2 minutes ago, longgone said:

    all they had to do was lockdown anyone who traveled through china from November on wards. 

    stop all flights to china.  would of cost far less. 

    The flights would have cost less to stop in hindsight - but that's a wonderful gift. I guess they thought this wasn't as big as it was. Certainly the numbers coming out of China do not stack up - Italy with it's fraction of China's population has far more reported cases for example. 

  7. 1 minute ago, longgone said:

    who knows they are prepared to lock the entire word down for a tiny amount of deaths.  usually money comes first. 

    There's a whole conversation on the end game of this and why everyone is being locked down... more powerful state, reasons for going out... it does have an element of former catastrophes doesn't it?

    Money talks though, they would have shut this down much sooner and pulled all flights in January but the expense at the time was deemed too high I guess. 

  8. 1 minute ago, Si1 said:

    Agreed interest rates are going to stay low

     Unless inflation takes off owing to a break up of global trade with China becoming a pariah etc. But I doubt that will happen significantly, but it may.

    I agree, there's an outside chance that this Covid19 sparks inflation high enough that TPTB have to start increasing rates but other than that I think we're in a low interest environment for a long time - hence stocks with high dividend yields being attractive right now, especially given the volatility discount the market's presenting us with.

  9. Just now, Si1 said:

    Basically yeah. I'd invest it on identical allocation to my current investments in aggregate.

    I find that interesting. I'd have taken say that £250k and dropping in £10k/day or something like that. Spread it over a period of one to three months. 

    Over very long terms I agree it isn't a smart thing to do because you miss the years of growth. But to drop a lump sum in all on one day would be pretty gutsy. Too gutsy for me tbh. 

  10. 15 hours ago, Doner Kebab said:

    The government dishing (future generations) money out to people is one side of the inflation coin, the other side is those same people are not earning any money at the same time. In fact a lot of them are effectively taking a 20% pay cut. Maybe inflation might not take off in the way you say.... Personally I think a cash buyer is in a great position right now to sit tight and see how things pan out over the next several months. Hopefully complete and utter carnage in the housing sector and I support anything that will make this so.

    Interesting - I'd have said they're two sides of the same coin - throwing money into the system, while people not working has the result of more cash chasing fewer goods and services. I could be wrong but in my mind that is very likely to cause an inflationary adjustment. 

    This website has being saying a cash buyer is a great position to sit tight for 15 years. Even if you have £250k in cash right now nobody can buy a house. Once people are allowed to go about their lives again where will interest rates be? What additional stimulus would be thrown by the government?

    Lots of unknowns there. Too late now to run out and buy a house but sit on your hands too long after this and you will miss a window of opportunity. The crash in 2008 was short lived and I kicked myself in later years for not seizing that opportunity. 

  11. For what it's worth I predict a spike in inflation once all this is over. The sheer amount of money being poured into the system already rivals the GFC bailouts and this time we're paying a lot of people reasonable money for sitting around and doing nothing. BoE base rate is 0.1%. While there's short term disruption in mortgage approvals (like there is in every industry as a result of this nonsense) it will abate and if it doesn't I can see us ending up with our own Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs - those aware of the great depression will know all about how and why they came into existence.  

    I'm not a gambler but if I didn't own a house right now and was sitting on a deposit I'd have been buying a FTSE 100 tracker by dividing up my lump sum into chunks and pound cost averaging the investments. 

    As I do own a house I'm just upping what I bang into my pension each month instead. 

    I strongly believe this is bad for affordability in the medium term. 

  12. Just wondering how negative interest rates need to go to make it worth my while paying the early redemption and remortgaging. 

    Stock market is a falling knife, but the FTSE's top performing days tend to follow in rapid succession from their worst. 

    This time it is NOT different. The reason for the falls is a lack of clarity about the future, that is all. Same as all the crashes before. 

  13. On 23/12/2019 at 07:52, spyguy said:

    I had long suspected that the opening of cross-rail would bring a dip in prices since the second it was announced the BTL brigade were all over Reading. An awful lot of high rise has gone up with even more planned. The town is adding a huge amount of supply at the same time as BTL is looking for cross rail opening as an exit (I would guess) and being hit with all the S.24. 

    I was actually sitting in a restaurant on 22nd Dec with that same view as the tweet (it was slightly higher by then) but the water was a long way from getting up to the shops. Scary though - there were some serious floods maybe 6 years ago when much of the Green Park area was underwater and they closed Reading Bridge because the Thames was so high. 

  14. On 23/12/2019 at 07:58, spyguy said:

    Now Romans might have escaped a large fine by grassing first


    But surely people whove sold houses will be able to go for compensation, maybe punitive compo?


    I hope so. I had to rent in Reading a few years ago and Romans took the p!ss wrt. tennacy fees etc. I think over £800 for two of us. Land Lady was on the fiddle two. Flat in daughter's name and got the odd bit of post sent there.... you know.... for appearances. 

    The sad thing is they seem to be good if you're selling or a land lord. I had to have my house valued recently and the chap from Romans was the most professional. The local independent's sales manager had retried and the bloke they replaced him with was a cretin sadly. 

  15. 21 hours ago, Locke said:

    Would you agree that we should cut all boys' penises off at birth to prevent rapes? After all, far more people are raped than murdered and you don't need a ***** [male organ] to live.

    Perhaps you're starting to see a link then between having a weapon and using it. So you are conceding that every cretin having a gun isn't such a good idea? If you get rid of all the guns then nobody can shoot anyone can they?

    Also, as disgusting as rape is, I cannot recall the last mass rape in the US, or anywhere tbh and your argument is pretty dumb other than to point out if every cretin has a willy/gun then a % will use them. Thing is, I don't need a gun to procreate (maybe you do, or think it at least makes you more manly and therefore helps in that department?) so you're saying nobody should be able to make love to their partner in return for removing the risk of rape?

    Not really seeing the parallel there. People need willys. They can use them for good (mostly weeing standing up) and bad. People are not born with guns and the vast overwhelming majority of people in a civilised society have no need for them at all. 

    Interesting also that you bring up rape:

    30 incidents per 100,000 in the US.

    There are 45 per 100,000 gun related injuries. You are right to say murder rate is lower but the incident of firearms injuries including death is much higher. Included in that are 8 children and teenagers shot ever day by accident by family. 


    Maybe they need some more guns mate. Maybe we could prevent rape by given women willys? :D 

    I can't believe people like you stalk this Earth. 

  16. On 02/08/2019 at 09:45, Locke said:

    Hard agree.

    Agents of the State should only be permitted firearms once the very last private citizen who wants to be is armed.

    Any more thoughts on this one given the events in the US over the weekend? I understand that the agents of the state managed to respond to a free citizen shooting a random group of people and prevent bloodshed. 

    Do you think that many people would have died if those responsible were prevented access to the guns in the first place? 

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