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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Unmoderated

  1. 40 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

    I couldn't believe when a friend was a supply teacher that the agency made him register as self employed.

    Language teachers in the UK really get badly paid at primary level. Hopefully Brexit will make them get paid better - or though I fear schools will just not bother.

    I spent 7 years learning French and I'm terrible. The reason (aside from being a bit thick and not being interested at all at that age) was because we did an hour a week. 

    I now work for a global firm and in a global role and constantly apologise for having meeting in English when I'm the only native speaker in a call full of Spanish speakers or Germans or whatever. When I talk about languages with non English colleagues they are shocked when I explain how it is taught. In other countries they treat English as important as maths or science and give it five hours a week. That's what is needed to get to a business level, plus being surrounded by an English speaking culture (internet, music and films) helps keep the exposure. 

    Sadly (or luckily) the global business language is English and while other languages are useful they are just not required. I pay no more for a multilingual member of staff than I do monolingual. 

    The only place I've holidayed where you needed (at times) to speak some local language was France. 

  2. 1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

    This was posted in another topic by switch625, but I felt it is so incredibly powerful that it deserves its own thread and that everyone should share this with anyone who is thinking of buying first time or moving up. The guy from PWC chooses not to advise but ultimately everything he said otherwise points to a correction “if you’d bought in the East Midlands in 2007 you would have been in negative equity till 2015”, but for me the absolute corker was the advice from the woman representing property investors. She had been fairly bullish, but when asked what the FTB should do with his 10k deposit she said some basically said that based on probabilities prices aren’t going to rise, and they may well fall, so I would hold off. This was hard nosed analysis from an investor. Golden.


    Both analysts basically warn FTB to hold off on the BBC

    So the PwC guy basically advises on the risk (that's generally what those fellas do).

    The property investor guy says don't buy a property now, wait and rent from one if us instead. 

    Interesting piece. 

  3. 3 minutes ago, Fatmanfilms said:

    Even at the same rate of tax you will pay more if you earn more, so the current system is fair, everyone should pay more if we need more money to be collected.

    If the current system whereby a female that didn't work a day in her life on two thirds of her late husbands final salary pension is able to retain her property to pass on to her entitled kiddies while some poor schmuck in a rented slave box pays for it instead of her unearned and untaxed capital gains being used first then, frankly, we do not see eye to eye on 'fair'.

  4. From the article:

    "Adopting a similar approach would let Johnson say he has ended the situation whereby some pensioners deemed too wealthy to qualify for local council-funded care have to sell their homes to pay care home costs, which can reach £1,400 a week."

    I'm very glad I've started the move to get out of earning a living on PAYE. Absolute joke - keep your unearned property gains and make everyone below you (age wise) pay for your fricking luxury. Seriously comrades - start to figure out life after 'income'. Look for another way to support yourself.

  5. They managed to save £6k for a deposit? That's basically 1%..... 

    I know the town they're in very well indeed. that place is earshot (you can see this development from that road) of a dual carriageway that was meant to link Oxford with the M4 and M3 and is a 25 minute walk into the fairly decent town centre, but still a 2 mile as the road runs walk. 

    That said it doesn't bode well for a crash if two feckless muppets are allowed to borrow that much money to buy a house. Imagine what someone with a decent deposit could buy. 

    I'd bet my **** that the price of that place will not be significantly higher in 5 years though. New builds depreciate for the first few years all other things being equal. 

  6. 3 minutes ago, blackhole said:

    Even if its just low-skilled employed that'll have a material effect on the BTL lot in an instant.  The problem is those low-skilled types are big consumers, so it will have a material effect elsewhere.  Don't need as much management or sales if demand has collapsed etc.

    I'd bet a good chunk live with their parents. I think the real impact will be on younger people sadly. I graduated in 2007 and that sucked! People only a few years ahead seem to have significant higher earnings and property wealth. Luck of the draw I guess. 

    Anyway, 10% unemployment remains to be seen. We were given a reduced hours and salary reduction for three months and April increases delayed but the company has performed better than forecast and we have all of that back already. I genuinely believe we'll see something very close to a V shaped recover unless there's a major second wave. By next year I'd expect at least one vaccine to have sufficient efficacy to suppress the R number below one with normal business as usual. 

    I do like the idea of BTL getting burned but my GF just moved in with me over lockdown. She had requested a rent reduction and the spivs just made a big song and dance out of it. She handed in her notice, moved in with me and her old place was listed for the rent from two years back. It appears to have been let within a week though. Seems to be a frustratingly slow burn, at least in Berkshire. 

  7. 12 minutes ago, longgone said:

    why not obtain planning and sell it as a going concern, houses are like cars always something better round the corner.  money needs to move to make it.  

    It is an option but I really like where I am here. If I could do the extensions and finish the house and not be weighed down with too large a mortgage then I'd be happy living here forever. However, I started this journey as a result of high house prices- I know what I want but can't afford it due to the mental credit supply and tight planning. Therefore I fancied renovating properties, taking advantage of the CGT relief and basically making my way mortgage free that way instead of slogging it out in London to hand half of it over to HMRC. 

    But you have a good point, there is always something better around the corner and timescales start to play a part. If I can buy, get Planning Permission and sell every couple of years, make a 'gain' then that's a lot less hassle than taking five years per project and living in a building site. But.... got to do it once right? I might never do it again though lol :) 

  8. 9 minutes ago, longgone said:

    aerial satellite images are good to find houses with access and aerial planning road layouts. most importantly though is how ridged planning is. 

    I was at an event last year with a presentation by a firm who specialise in getting planning permission on those borderline plots. Was pretty interesting and pays to looks at the town plans.

    In terms of a standard refurbishment I believe you can do pretty well on an existing property if you buy something without the attraction of the builders (timing can play a part in this, buying in midsummer when they're all busy or in Thailand helps and there's fewer mummy and daddy wannabe developers about). The best way though is to do things yourself and learn as much as you can. I installed a bathroom for £2,500. Getting a bloke in was double that and there's no guarantee they're do things just how you wanted them. 

    Basically, the best way to make money is to do it yourself. If you have to pay people you'll probably break even. Things like a new kitchen or bathroom add their cost to the house price at best, more likely it'll be less.

  9. 7 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

    I don't see how 4 million unemployed by Christmas can fail to evicerate house prices. 

    I don't think politicians can stop it, however hard they try. 

    Depends who those 4m unemployed are and how much they'd be earning. If we're talking Pizza Express waiting staff and John Lewis shop floor sales assistants I'm not sure of a big impact.. If we're talking senior management, accountants, lawyers and well paid sales people then expect more. 

  10. 19 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Totally agree, but the establishment is so corrupt they will literally stop at nothing to prevent losses for themselves.

    We've learnt that over the last 20 years.

    I just hope I am wrong and prices collapse but I just dont see it now.  People will lose their savings, careers, pensions, lives, all to keep up property prices .

    It's mental, but they could have stopped at any point after 2007, have they ?  No.  Will they ? No.

    They've even gone the extra yard and appointed an ex-Goldman Sacks banker to chancellor.

    Agreed it is insanity but so too is doing the same thing and expecting a different result! I figured there would be a good correction after 2007. I wasn't going to get done post Brexit... there was probably the last quick opportunity when the falling £ had the BoE at limited power to print. 

    The problem with being a broken clock is that when you're eventually right it's only for a minute. 

  11. 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    Not many people can learn to tile or plaster well. Getting in a tradesman whose work you have seen and rate is well worth the cost as an ok or shoddy finish will bug you for years and devalue the house. You are better spending your time finding good tradesmen and paying them directly, rather than through a subcontractor.  Best to avoid cash in hand as well the saving is not worth the potential hassle if you have any dispute. 

    I agree partly. I had a plaster come in to skim ceilings and do around the fireplace I installed since that was a focal point and I didn't have the time or walls to learn to plaster on at that point. But, I later had a stab at my brother's house. It was terrible to begin with but was getting the hang of it towards the end though more practice needed.

    Tiling though I nailed - I installed my bathroom and it looks brilliant. Thing is you take a lot more care when it's yours and if you can get the hang of the techniques it's not that complicated. The downside is I'm significantly slower than someone with 25 years experience but I enjoy the process and the next bathroom will take me half the time I expect. 

  12. 37 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    You'd have to be confident you have the skills to pull it off. Basically you'd need to be in the industry.

    I agree you need the skills but these are easily acquired for most. I'd never done DIY until I bought this place. I used to hide away when my dad wanted help... should've listened more to him tbh..... but there's a tonne of tradies on YouTube who are very happy to share the secrets. 

    My only rule is only do things you're confident you can do right and that will save you jmoney - i.e. paying an EE £100 to dig a hole wont save you money, but learning to tile or plaster a room will save you hundreds a day.... for example. 

  13. 45 minutes ago, longgone said:

    no you need to buy a house where you win if it needs work and win on top  if you can knock it down and build two or 3 on the same plot. or gain access to build another one on the site, fix old one up sell it build new one really cheap or free house even.  

    i know of sites but i don`t have a million quid sadly. 

    Guilty of the first. I could probably build three terrible 'town houses' on this plot or even a second detached in the garden but it would mean a tiny plot for a family home. 

    It's currently a bungalow on a busy cut through. They're changing the road layouts so it will be a dead end within 12 months. They just spent £250m on the high street refurb and a load of new flats, office spaces and even a new leisure centre. 

    Bought for just under mid £400ks. Ceiling price if converted to a house is currently £750k... more once the road is a dead-end. 

    The thing is though I'm not interested in making the money, I just wanted that £750k house at a reasonable price and this is the only way I could find to do it. It is a big sacrifice too, I've given up holidays and weekends to working on the house, installed wood burners, bathrooms, windows and doors, full refurbishment really aside from the stuff that get ripped back out with the extension.

    Sadly I'm not guilty of having a million quid. Far from it. I would though love to build my own home from scratch one day (doesn't everyone?). But I also take your point which is (I think) the real challenge even with the money is finding these places. 

  14. For me this is beautiful. I argued strongly with Venger years back about inflation being used to cause a slow real correction while nominal stayed flat. This is quite extraordinary but simply accelerating what I thought we'd see

    It's not over yet. My view is that housing is just on a ratchet, in the good times prices increase with wages, in the bad times they go printy printy and start trowing money at the economy. 

    I also recall telling people here that I was buying back in 2017 and got nothing short of ridiculed. Credit tightening, Brexit recession, crash just around the corner. 

    Ah well. 

    To everyone on this site thinking about buying you may well have already missed the best recent opportunities with Brexit and/or early Corona but your future is in your hands only. My tips:

    Do not buy new build and buy a fixer upper if you can. Review local planning schemes and road/town upgrades and basically surf the improvements that are being planned or executed so that when they are completed they act as some sort of backstop to any future headwinds in prices. 

    I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 


  15. 1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

    I’m hearing they are all trying to move out to Surrey. Or so a local friend selling a house tells me.


    IMHO Surrey is vastly overrated. Countryside is beautiful but the roads are narrow and clogged and because everyone is minted they roll about it horrendous diesel guzzling 4x4s making the air quality pretty crap. 

    Still, I'd take it over central London any day. I think anyone with some money that's been stuck in a flat for four months would be itching to have some of their own outdoor space. Then again I also think that within a year or two this will all be behind us and we'll have moved on from covid though I'm not sure how long the economic impact would linger.... and that debt isn't getting cleared in a hurry. 

  16. 1 hour ago, Gribble said:

    Its a free country  - people can invest their hard earned savings where they like.  Stock markets are liable to crash.  

    Looking historically so too are housing markets :).

    The obvious game still in town is self build and self development. No taxes on the main residence and taxes cannot be applied retrospectively. The main issue for the property spivs is this requires work. 

    Most people will still qualify for PRR. An interesting dynamic here though is that couples may stay unmarried, once owns the main residence and the other a second home or holiday home. Both claim PRR on disposal. 

  17. 5 minutes ago, winkie said:

    if house prices go up can get away with paying only the interest.....if they don't expect to pay down the debt and the interest to create your own equity.....;)

    Agreed, and expect to put your own money down to create equity from day one. It's quite a narrow segment of society that gets pandered to but that creates issues for other buyer and would be buyers alike. I had to stump up a small fortune to put down 15% a few years ago. I am on a repayment that clears about £10k/year from the balance and I have made significant improvements . Side line but it's my way of getting back at the system if you like - build equity through improvements done yourself, do as much as you can and then move on to the next project. I hope to one day not too far away to have no mortgage in a large part to this method. 

    It's been said many times but if they (the govt) didn't show the innumerate with cheap debt the rest of us wouldn't be paying a fortune for a house or beholden to landlords. 

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