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Unmoderated

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Posts posted by Unmoderated

  1. 51 minutes ago, captainb said:

    Im expecting slash hoping for a 10% fall as witnessed by ONS average figures, with regional variation thrown in. 

    That tends to make me a massive bull or  even "BTL whatever" on here, but i think all the talk of 50% or even 75% collapses is not based in reality.

    And as for the "sell everything to buy old gold coins to barter with" crew, actual genuine suggestion on here.. Its beyond parody. 

    Hi Captainb, don't get me wrong I'd quite happily see the feckless and over leveraged take a bath but I'm resigned to it not happening. So far we've got virtual NIRP and more money thrown at people in 5 months of this than in the entire GFC (I think that record was broken in just Q1!). More worryingly there's probably enough incorporated BTLs out there that got their £50k from government, took mortgage holidays with the banks and kept fleecing their flocks. 

    I think the froth will come off the market once the people who are desperate to move have moved, and you'll always get a good deal if you know where to look, probate sales, or elderly needing to get into care ASAP and be prepared to do some work and modernising. 

  2. On 08/08/2020 at 14:38, 24gray24 said:

    Is there anyone on this website who hasn't pencilled in house price meltdown 6 months after furlough ends?

    Yes, I haven't. BoE is clearly stating that it will do whatever it takes to support lending and keep rates low even after inflation has returned to normal. 

    If we get NIRP (I expect it second half of this year) then banks would actively choose to not foreclose since having deposits with then central bank will cost them money. It's better to be a borrower at that point. 

    If you think NIRP isn't likely in the UK check out the position in Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan. 

  3. 19 minutes ago, shlomo said:

    If you can please check if the same places are busy tonight,  i would not think so.

    i expect less so but even if they're dead they more than made up for it Monday to Wednesday. Every table occupied and nothing until 9.30 at best. Ended up in one of my less favourite curry houses that had two fee tables right that the back (large double unit place, great food but decorated like an office instead of a resultant). 

  4. 4 minutes ago, definitelynotanagent said:

    I don't think it will ever be paid off, as such. We're still saddled with debt from the banking crisis, and now this added on top.

    My personal view (and I might well be wrong) is that they will print until the cows come home, and if that doesn't work they'll try printing some more. IMO the currency will get completely trashed (then again, so will e.g. the USD for the same reasons), and it will all end in tears eventually.

    With that in mind, I have now "purchased" (borrowed not-quite-to-the-hilt-but-pretty-close) a 60% LTV house - hopefully complete within the next month. 

    It's going to be a rough ride, no doubt. I'm hoping my gamble pays off, but it could easily go the other way as well.

    I agree with you.

    Good luck with the house, apocalypse or not we all need somewhere to live. I bought three years ago.... "You're an idiot" came the cries. The problem was I'd been an idiot since 2007 thinking that it would collapse. The problem is I underestimated just how much they would do to support prices. 

    The nice thing is not being angry with the whole set up. It guess it's a cop out in a way of can't beat 'em, join 'em. They print I'm happy, inflation creeps up I'm happy. Mine is a project and on a good plot so looking to extend in a few years and do much of the work myself. Again, can't win waiting it out so I wanted to build equity (tax free so as not to support the circus) by making improvements. 

  5. 14 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    You're being accused of trolling unfairly - but equally that's only half the story.

    Technically a recession is over once a quarter's growth is positive - however, that's not how most people think of a recession or how it "feels" because the economic could still be at a crippling low compared to recently and still technically out of recession.

    For example, if GDP over successive quarters in 2020 (with 2019=100 as a base) 90, 70, 75, 80  then technically the recession is over by Q3, even though by the end of the year the economy is a massive 20% down on 2019, which would be heaps of unemployment etc - all the things people think of as recessionary.

    So yes, technically, the recession is - technically - probably over.  The effects of it have barely begun.

    There may also be another technical recession next year too. 

    Hi Scottbeard, finally someone who doesn't deride anything they can't wrap their head around as trolling! :)

    Well my point was exactly that, whether it feels like a recession or not isn't really the point. I grant that we could end up 5% or 10% lower yoy by the end of 2020 in total but I don't think the 2020Q4 versus 2019Q4 will be more than 5%. Again I might be wrong. But the point was the direction of travel has already changed and GDP is growing not shrinking. Savings rates were almost zero in June (contrary to what Locke thinks savings doesn't support GDP growth!) following from record paying down of debts in Q1 and Q2 (correlated with the recession their Locke!). In June the 1.8bn in net household borrowing was accounted for entirely with mortgages. I'm not 100% of where i read it but following on from huge savings in lockdown I think in June consumers saved only £87m whereas normally it's around £300m/month. There's a lot of people out there who have been made financially better off due to this lockdown, no childcare fees whilst still getting paid £30k and unable to spend it as they usually would, summer holidays cancelled (another large expense), my circle of accountant buddies are all working from home and saving a bomb on travel costs and I am the only one that suffered a temporary pay cut. 

    I went out last night for dinner in my hometown (Berkshire market town) and we tried six restaurants before we could get a table! Annecdotal yes, but people are out there spending and in their masses. 

    There's always the risk of a second wave or the vaccine takes far longer than anticipated. The bigger risk from my point of view is how the government pays off the enormous debt that just got racked up. 

    I'm waffling, but yes I do take your point, it could take a while until it feels like we're out of this, and it will certainly take a while for the national debt to recover. 

  6. 1 hour ago, Warlord said:

    A troll is defined in the Urban Dictionary as "one who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument".

    Maybe the facts are provocative but I don't try to be. The fact is the decline in GDP reversed for official figures in June and is widely expected to continue making up the ground it lost through Q3. 

    If I'm talking 'absolute nonsense' (would you say that accusation is provocative?) then take the bet with usernames. 

    if not wind it in. 

  7. 4 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

    Fair enough. But do you genuinely believe a recession that has just officially been classed is already over? In history has that ever happened? (Actual question as I don't know, seems unlikely though IMO)

    Recessions are only known about after the event, the latest numbers sow negative for Q1 and Q2, but the numbers are already going the other way. They cannot declare it officially over until Q3, but if Q3 is positive it'll be a two quarter recession (like several prior). In others I'm saying the recessions is over because June was positive and Q3 will I think also be positive i.e. GDP is on the rise from it's remarkable low. 

    Definition of recession is two successive quarters of declining GDP. One quarter of positive GDP takes you out of recession. 

    Another question might be how long until GDP matches the pre covid level, I'd agree that it will take a while (three years or so) to get back to that level. 

  8. 1 hour ago, byron78 said:

    I give an F.

    Because I don't call my shoes "outside waterproof walking socks with rubber soles".

    Words clarify and help avoid confusion.

    You quickly reduce debate to idiocy if you're incapable of using terminology that helps folk differentiate by making things clear and concise. Do you really think finding something wrong, and then finding a contrived way to apply the term socialism to it, is in any way helpful to anyone other than the same neolib bandits who have got us into this mess?

    I'll tell you why I have a problem with it: it's obvious, so apologies to anyone with an IQ higher than their shoe size (sorry "outside walking sock" size).

    The dismantlement of the state, and an awful lot of the deregulation, and low tax stuff this past 40 years has been undertaken IN THE NAME of capitalism, most the time to the delight of us Tories (it was sold to us as the death of socialism in the 80s).

    Fully agree with you. I've a friend that changes things to what he considers his definition of a word to be as if it's some sort of argument winning move. Gets tiresome. Not following your argument with KB though, and wouldn't dream of passing judgement but agree with your sentiment here. 

  9. 6 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

    @Unmoderated obviously thinks recessions last a couple of months, nice.

    This is a stone cold VI bull classic comment. This one needs printing and laminating. (On the nice thick 100gsm paper too)

    Not sure I'm a VI, I just say what I see. But like Warlord, change your name to I was wrong if you're wrong and I'll do the same if you're right. Deal? 

    Laminate now, lament later :D

  10. 24 minutes ago, Warlord said:

    Absolute nonsense.  Recessions on average last 5 quarters and this one could last longer.

    Mass unemployment from November when furlough scheme ends. Have you considered that? 

     

    It wont, the deeper and steeper the drop the sharper the recovery. Granted some headwinds like another national lockdown, but significant upside like the entire country NOT being shut and the advent of a vaccine. 

    Take on a bet then, we'll change our names on this forum to "I was wrong" then?

    You do know that unemployment or Furlough would be counted the same..... in GDP measure since it's a measure of OUTPUT and not earnings or rises in house prices. I'm sure you've considered that though :D

     

  11. 17 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

    Getting back on topic...

    Will confirmation of the (expected) recession, not to mention it's (unexpected?) severity, make house sellers re-think their somewhat daft up pricing since the stamp duty changes?

    The recession has been and gone. GDP bounced over 8% in June and is expected to be strong positive numbers in July and August.

    The Stamp Duty changes had money to the vendors indirectly by giving each purchaser more cash. The advantage here is that worst case you stick it on the mortgage and pay it off at an extra £10/month. If it wasn't for the stamp duty break would be buyers would have up to £15k less with which to buy a house/spend on other stuff like furniture etc. so the buyers lose either way.

  12. 46 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    "Must be quarter-past never again on the Grand TCON clock. "

    You act like a **** and you want respect and debate ?

    Troll on.

    So dodged the question and resorted to an insult. 

    I wasn't expecting it from you of course (I doubt anyone on here does) but thought I'd do you a favour by flagging it. I guess to get your respect (not that it's worth anything) one must just say you're right, house prices will crash and everyone who bought a house ever is an idiot. 

    Is it lonely being you???? Never mind, back to your little echo chamber little man. 

    Trollalalala

  13. 1 minute ago, Warlord said:

    The chancellor Sunak is a real idiot ... he talks in platitudes and peddles nonsense.

    Heard him on the radio before and he said (paraphrasing) "'Lots of people will lose their jobs but they should know the government wont give up on hope and opportunity for those affected"

    WTF does that even mean?? 

    He sounds like Gordon Brown ... exactly the same rubbish! 

     

    Paraphrasing again it's basically, we've done what we can without tanking the entire country and saddling ourselves with debt until nevermore - good luck guys!

  14. 2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Must be...Troll s**ting them self on the teeny weeny wee Idiot clock.

    You do understand that calling anyone who disagrees with you a troll is:

    • Troll like behaviour
    • Not conducive to debate
    • A bit tired after all these years

    If that graph is showing causation instead of correlation what are you thoughts on the massive 8% improvement in GDP for July? 

  15. Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Yes, who knows......we all know.  How prices are double what they should be and will correct.  Could be now, might be n ext year, might be 20 years from now but a correction is coming and those speculating on them will need to sell up to crystalise their gains.

    Good luck with that right now.

    Must be quarter-past never again on the Grand TCON clock. 

    July is +8%. 90s and GFC house prices preceded the decline in GDP, not the other way around. It's a case of the tail wagging the dog and I think we all agree it's nuts but it is what it is. 

    Do you think we'll get NIRP in Q3 or Q4?

  16. 21 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

    Since house prices make a significant contribution to the GDP figure, shouldn't there be correlation anyway?

    Yes, and often it's the other way around! in several cases there the movement in house prices precedes the movement in GDP. 

    I think every fall in house-prices has been followed by a recession in the UK since the 60s. We could argue about that all day long but what is clear is that in the 90s recession and the GFC the decline in house prices proceeded the decline in GDP.

    If you look at July's numbers that blue line is +8% so this is a very short and sharp decline followed buy what will be a slower but fairly swift increase from that bottomed out GDP number. 

    And then there SDLT, NIRP, £50k 'loans' to any old business etc etc. There's a lot of money coming over that wall. 

     

  17. 4 hours ago, Longtermrenter said:

    We finally were offered a plot at a site in Brookland, Kent - cheapest plot £160K https://www.invictaselfbuild.com/project/brookland/https://www.invictaselfbuild.com/project/brookland/

    No thanks.

     

    QED it isn't the price of houses it's the price of land with a certificate saying you can build on it that's the problem. Having said that £160k for a building plot with no demolition costs and services already attached isn't bad. 

  18. 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Love the fact that every troll started posting.  It's comedy gold.

    They're all still missing the point.  Sure we might see more and more price rises but it becomes riskier and riskier for the whole economy/country.

    Collapse will happen, houses will become a weight round peoples necks.  BTLers will go to the wall en-masse.  

    House prices are of little consequence right now.  

    Troll away folks, house prices collapse, you're screwed, house prices dont collapse, you're screwed.

    Zugzwang

    Buy a house and lose your job get a govt backed payment holiday on your mortgage. 

    Rent a place and lose your job, see you later and then the BTL brigade use owner-occupiers as operation human shield. 

    The country still views tenants as second class (which is odd given how much it supports the people farmers!). 

  19. 22 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

    When do you see the era of low interest rates ending? Because only then will the above happen. 

    An even then it won't. People are looking at houses costing three times income back in the 1960s. Back then households had one income so the correct metric would be multiples of household income.The average full times salary in the UK is £35k. The average UK houseprice is £231k. four times joint +10% gets you there pretty much bang on!

    I get the sentiment though, the real driver is the ability to borrow. If banks suddenly offered 10 times joint 50 years mortgages at 0.5% houseprices would absolutely go to the moon. If they tightened it to two times joint at 1`0% for 20 years they'd crater. 

  20. 15 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

    It’s coming.

    +1 

    Just think of all the 'Bounce Back Loans' that won't be bouncing back to the treasury. £2bn out the door in the first 24 hours. That's not coming back. Virtually everyone I know who has taken one is next to usless. 

    If they will do that for numpties (the banks) and the banks will led to more numpties then they sure as hell give guarantees or HTB for non new builds. 

  21. 41 minutes ago, definitelynotanagent said:

    Hmm, yeah I completely get the thing about emergency funds... Personally we've put as little money as possible into the mortgage since getting it, and have stuffed any left-overs into a savings account... We even opted for a 30 year mortgage, and save the difference into a savings account for a rainy day.

    Having said that, I wonder if home-owners would be better protected than renters in the event of unemployment etc... Certainly at the moment (although extraordinary times, clearly) it would seem that you can basically default from your mortgage for a year with little hassle from the bank, where-as if you were renting you'd be out on your ear as soon as the courts open up again.

     

    +1, GF recently moved in with me and lost her job. Asked for a rent adjustment/holiday and just came up against a wall. 

    Flip side recently spoke to a college friend (called me up out of the blue wanting free financial advice). He bought a flat in London rented out to a family member. He's taken a mortgage holiday on that AND got himself a £50k bounce back loan. Fricking joke. 

    As long as prices aren't plummeting any bank would be ok to delay and pray. If prices are going up then why wouldn't they? There was almost an unspoken rule (maybe it was spoken) in the GFC that nobody would repossess since it would start to release supply to a precarious low volume market. 

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