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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Unmoderated

  1. 15 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Id just like to say, I have unmoderated and 20 something on my blocked list, having read their posts I can see why :lol: 


    I mean the following respectfully but I think if you can see this (perhaps someone not on your blocked list quotes me here):

    It's because you love an echo chamber. If there's one golden rule I'd have for life it's to not surround yourself with people who think the same as you. This is why I'm not now in a position where I'm propagating resentment at the housing situation in the UK. This is the reason you're not on my blocked list. It's also the reason for my success in business. I don't think I'm particularly special or clever, I just am open to other perspectives and accept I do not know best. The more you adopt this thought, the more you learn.

    I think blocking people is, bluntly, a sigh of weakness of your position. If you're so certain that house prices are going to crash by 30% (and you have been certain of this for 15 years now - I'm sure you'll be right eventually) then please defend that position and open yourself to scrutiny. If your arguments don't stand up then perhaps change your stance? I've nailed my colours the mast and told everyone on here that I've bought in 2017 (August). At that time I got slammed as a moron, why am I buying when credit is tightening etc etc. 

    Four and a bit years later I'm paying less on my mortgage for a smashing little detached place in a top 10 places to live town in the South East than I was renting  a crappy little flat on a main road! Sure, I could've put that £70K in BitCoin in 2017 and made loads of money but frankly that's a moronic thing to have done, and a moronic thing to think with hindsight! At best I could have got 5-8% on a balanced mix of stocks and shares in an ISA but even that would pale to the rent I'd have paid and the equity I've gained. 

    Anyway, bonne chance mon ami :) 

  2. I cannot see a crash caused by interest rates rises. The ERM was a spectacular screwup and we're still feeling the fallout from that (it was the main reason we didn't join the Euro - ERM proved pegging the currency doesn't work). 

    If rates did rise suddenly I think they'd just find some form of help for mortgagees, or even fight inflation with tax rises to reduce the deficit or even run a surplus to pay down the debt. Imagine 'taxing' only people with debt to control inflation.

    Let us also remember we're approaching the point where the political cycle and the impact of interest rates collide since the next GE is May 2024 and it is felt that 24 months is generally the time for policy changes to have their full impact. What really matters for the Tories is ensuring everything is running nicely around this period in 2023 and continues to do so for the next 6 months. An HPC would result in recession and loss of power for them so I'd expect nothing until after the next GE now. 

  3. 2 hours ago, Huggy said:

    We'll see exactly what these feckles debtors 'own' soon enough. I'm sure a home isn't one of them.

    Responsibility for a half a million of debt, fixed for 5 years at 1%, certainly 😂 Clever girl!

    Slightly bigger than my mortgage. 0.99% fixed for 5 years. I actually hope currency becomes worthless. It'll cost me nothing to clear the debt :D.

    Incidentally I neglected to cancel the DD for my old mortgage so they took the SVR amount out today. Totally affordable! 

    I don't think we'll get lower mortgage rates than this (short of some major shock like a more deadly variant of Covid) ever so I'm pretty chuffed to have fixed it so low for so long and in 5 years time I thinking inflation has taken a big bite out of the balance. 

  4. On 30/10/2021 at 00:24, Pmax2020 said:

    The mainstream media are 99.9% unionists so the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon are vilified on an hourly basis. If you stopped 100 people in the streets up here however, probably 60-70% would say Sturgeon/SNP are doing a good job. 

    Every headline, every story, even every photograph of her portrays her as a complete cow. I don’t particularly like her but the way the MSM treat the SNP and Scottish politics has an enormous impact on peoples perceptions of Scotland.

    Independence will come in my life time. Pre-covid I’m sure there were 15 or so polls that had Yes in the lead. Once the reliance on oil dwindles the English will grow tired of continually lying about subsidising us and rather than let us have our moment in the sun, they’ll turn on us and aid the separation process.

    Here’s the type of hourly guff we put up with…


    That's just woke MSM, not all targeted at SNP. 

    I dunno about independence. The referendum was done and that was conclusive but there's a huge gap in logic from the nationalists imho. They want to leave the UK (genuinely good luck with that but Scotland receives far more per head than England..... for now) and join the EU!? 

    So hate being told what to do by Westminster but are all up for trying to join the EU so they can enjoy being told what to day and have a far smaller say in things (Scotland would be 1% of the population of the EU and has an economy smaller than Greece!

    At the end of the day the referendum was settled. If you held a referendum every month then eventually you get a leave vote..... but then what? Keep holding referenda? 

    I guess selfishly I'd be fine with it since I think it'd end up the English pound being worth a lot more than the Scottish one and Scottish holiday homes would become even better value ;).

  5. 1 hour ago, desiringonlychild said:

    i mean, i have thought of buying an apartment in Brighton or a small house in Manchester around the university area and renting it out to tourists and students respectively whilst renting and working in London. Both would cost less than my flat in London and be income generating, while ensuring that I have a rent free place to live in retirement (both are also areas I really like for lifestyle reasons but would  not live in during my working years). I would possibly have chosen that option if rentals in the UK were more secure and landlords couldn't allowed to just give you 2 months of notice for you to leave, which isn't the best environment for a family and also if there weren't taxes on BTL for higher rate taxpayers. But at the same time, if renting was more secure, there would be different risks in getting into BTL (its apparently one reason why many young Germans don't buy property because they are scared they would get a job in another city and then be unable to move as renting out the apartment to a random person as an individual is possibly not the best idea in a country with high rental protections. Holiday let would be an option but then what do you do during a pandemic? 


    Take the payment holiday and the £30K grant from the government. I'd bet people are more prepared to stay in a holiday let that's a detached house away from other places rather than a hotel during a pandemic. 

  6. 1 hour ago, desiringonlychild said:

    Actually thats a good point. the main reason why it even makes sense to buy is to basically to ensure a place to live during retirement, but if you are confident that you have the cash to buy a property in your favored retirement spot  outright (and are confident that the cash you have would keep up with HP inflation due to investing), then why not. You can then live wherever you like.

    I plan on buying my retirement home in the next few years and making it a holiday let. 

    When I eventually move into it and sell my main home I think the CGT is deferred to my death so I sell main home tax free and hopefully by that point the holiday let is mostly paid for my holidaying families and I get the best of both worlds. 

    Possibly an idea to consider.

  7. 1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

    My desperately pro-Independence parents would love you. They think the English are being resettled here to stifle indy-ref2.

    Ive got to admit the Scottish Borders seems predominantly English these days. The more the merrier as long as they vote Yes 🤣


    Unlike UK in the EU, Scotland receives far more than it contributes in taxes. 

    All that aside it's a beautiful place (if a little wet and windy). I'd love a place up there. Looking east of Cairngorms you can get a perfectly presentable three bed detached for £250K. 

    I'd be a second homie up there though. I love how sparsely populated it is but I think I might be screaming at the sky after a few months. Definitely a place to visit and recharge. 

    Not sure how Indy Ref 2 would go down. I'm amazed Sturgeon has the shelf life she's had tbh. I know plenty of Scotlanders down here who think she's a grade a boot. 

  8. 6 minutes ago, Locke said:

    Depends on your situation. 

    Besides, a 35 year mortgage means your ass is hanging out in the wind for a long time. Up until now, people have not been burned, but that's no guarantee.

    But a 35 year mortgage is at least a term. Feels like forever when young but the older you get the more you realise it isn't that far. I did remortgage recently for a 35 year term though. I mean, why wouldn't you when rates are less than 1%? I even took additional money out since I can find far better uses for it. Worst case scenario I have enough savings to pay the mortgage for the remainder of the fixed term and then I could sell in 5 years. Worst case. 

    Meanwhile if I was renting I'd be increasingly upset and even bitter about now having to borrow another 25% compared to 4 years ago just to buy the same house. 

    I would agree that there's no guarantee people wont get burnt but I modified my thinking after 2009. Sure, some dimwit liars got their arses handed to them (most didn't) and everyone saving hard to buy a house paid for it. So you might say there's not guarantee you wont get burnt by being on the other side of it. 

  9. 14 minutes ago, Locke said:

    People tend to get upset if you point out they don't really own the property if the bank still has a claim on it.

    Also, having to rent your own property from the government means you never really own it, but that is another discussion ;)

    Do they? They probably just find that a tiresome point in a 'conversation'.

    Is it better then to rent from someone renting from the bank/government and never, ever own it or get yourself in a position where you will have your debt eroded by inflation and payments?

  10. I bought my first one in 2017. After a trip to Scotland this year I'm seriously considering a second home up there. Rent it out during school holidays and work from there a few months of the year. Also a good excuse to buy a nicer car for that drive (I live near Reading). Or, wondering about getting a little car to stay with the house up there so people renting the house could also have the option of flying/training it up there and renting the car from me too... maybe too much bother. 

  11. I think the high energy prices and slow switching back on f everything around the planet will cause a short spike in prices but I expect these to fall back in due course.


    I also expect the BoE to 'see through' this spike. Remember their job is simply to look at what the rate of inflation will be in 2 years time and adjust rates accordingly. If higher inflation in the shorter term manifests itself they can't really do much about that unless they predicted it years before hand. 

    It's a good old game. 

  12. 59 minutes ago, papag said:

    So the  state pension will rise by just 3.1% when they should have been getting around 8% under the triple lock or at the least real inflation of around 6%, how many votes has this cost them with these manipulated figures.

    Oh the poor darlings! What have people working for living got? Country locks down literally to save the lives of these people and now they're bitching about not getting an 8% increase for doing nothing more than surviving. 

    Meanwhile, in the real world, private sector took pay cuts, self employed lost business and there's a tax rise coming next year. 

    I'd have made it 0%.

  13. 14 hours ago, Timm said:

    It's all relative, isn't it? To most HPC'rs, these yields still represent an abnormally low return on capital. But if they persist, they represent an ongoing increase in the cost of debt that could be ruinous for some. Plus, is it a one off repricing, or a response to the expected CPI figure on Wednesday that could be repeated next month and the month after that? Are we looking at a one off event, or a change in the direction of travel?

    I won't nail my colours to the mast, but there is a reason that I bumped a thread last week that had been dormant since 2019. 

    With one proviso, I will defer to others on that one - see spyguy above.

    The one point I would make is that mortgage rates are mad low now. Some people think that the bond markets give clues to the future. Whether that is CPI this Wednesday, BOE base rate on the 4th Nov or in Dec, or the years to come, I would not like to guess.


    I'm more interested in the shape of that yield curve. A sudden increase in short dated gilts but no real movement in the longer dated suggests whatever people are expecting is only expected to be in the short term. 

    If inflation was expected to persist the longer dated gilts would be yielding higher.

    To me this says short term inflation then a drop to low inflation without a change in base rates,

  14. 16 hours ago, spyguy said:

    The low mortgage rates are down to several factors.

    Covid term funding (slush money from BoE) and restrictions on banks paying out dividends, forcing them to lend money.

    For an example of how much term funding has lowered rates, compare 30y US mortgage rates to the UK.

    Dividends restriction were lifted a awhile ago.

    It's possible you could see term funding removed *and* base rates raised, all within the same quarter.

    That would be a step change from the last 10 years.


    Gilt market seemingly totally unconcerned. 

    I'm fixed for 5 years so don't need to brace for a good while yet :) 

  15. 3 hours ago, Timm said:

    UK 10-year gilt yield now  1.17%

    UK 20-year gilt yield now 1.43%

    And that is since Friday!

    Also, the 2 year is insane, up from 0.57% on Friday, to 0.73% now.

    To me this suggests expectations of any inflation or rate increase will be limited in size and duration.

    Banks still lending at mad low rates for mortgages out there - and very easy to borrow right now. 

  16. 7 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    2.5-3.5% within the year, sadly. People don't seem to understand that we've gone through a WW2 level of disruption - a hell of a lot of volatility will flow from that, over the next few years. 

    Literally just fixed for 5 years at 0.99%. The scariest thing about my mortgage is the redemption penalties of 5% for the full fixed term. 70% LTV max product. 10% overpayments.

    The link to the article seems to say that rates for small deposits have been cut slightly and all they're doing is saying they'll increase rates for those with high deposits. 

  17. 1 hour ago, coypondboy said:

    do you sleep at night I couldn't with a mortgage that big but sensible to fix as any rate increase would affect you more tham me.

    With repayments at £1k a month I could pay it working in Tescos. I know what you mean though... I was stressed before initially taking the plunge but tbh it is true what they say.... it gets easier. My monthly payments have dropped about £200/month and would be even lower had I not taken the additional money out. If I was renting I think that would be the opposite story. 

    In either position you have to make the payments to keep you home but rather unfairly if you have a mortgage you can take payment holidays or go IO for a period etc. If you're renting there's little support. 

  18. 1 hour ago, coypondboy said:

    1.1% at nationwide for 5 yr fixed with no fee for existing borrowers my mortgage only 25k so not worth paying the fee for the cheaper rate only problem had to go from interest only to repayment until 70 but will pay off after 5 yrs just wanted to keep costs down.

    I had arrangement fee of £1k but on a mortgage close to £400K so that 0.1% is £2k over the term.... breakeven - just!

  19. On 30/08/2021 at 08:56, Dweller said:

    A Q I wanted to ask was does the market need FTB?  

    Can't see this collapsing as easily as house prices have just shot up as I guess providing  people are selling it makes not odds but assume it has priced out most of the FTB who can't get an additional £50,000 mortgage. 


    I was walking through town last night and I walked past EA window. Looked in as could do with a laugh and saw a really nice two bed two bathroom flat for £280K. I could afford to buy that and rent it out and it would let for £1,200/m. Back of fag packet and 2.5% at 25% deposit on the IO and that's £440/M for rent. Service charges there too of course but I was just staggered. After years of being priced out and then struggling to buy somewhere 4 years ago with an ex, then getting lucky at work and being able to buy her out to now looking at this and being able to become the very thing that was two steps beyond reach...... needless to say I hope any investor that buys it trips over the edge and into insolvency and I see that nice little flat up for half that price and it goes to a nice young person in their early 20s (or any FTB of any age). 

    In short though the market doesn't need FTB. All property could eventually be hoovered up by investors. 

    I discovered recently that two fairly unassuming individuals at work own large portfolios. One has 14 properties in the area. mi £250K/unit.

  20. 22 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

    Latest check: 0.94 still lowest (with 1k fees) HSBC. 

    My remortgage process started in July and has still not finished. The UK is a country of scraping by, making do, just in time, bare minimums. It's astonishing to see people I know overseas (in Australia, USA, UAE) move into their properties within anything from 2 weeks to a month after acceptance. 


    Shoot! I just went for 5yr fix with Santander... 70% LTV though

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