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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Unmoderated

  1. On the finance and sales operations side I can confirm there's a lot of demand for people right now especially with SalesForce experience. People are leaving for 20% increases. Crazy. We had a stellar Q1 from a sales standpoint too. Not at all what I'd have expected this time last year.
  2. haha, in part lol I have taken a look at the debt. Question; what caused it?
  3. Interesting view, but the unions don't really get economics. I imagine they're still shocked about coal mines not being commercially viable at £150K/year per miner.
  4. Probably not enough politicians to warrant a new qualification being set up and I guess most are lawyers who ain't too hot at maths (commercial lawyers in my experience at least). Ideology is a hard one. Thatcher for instance is viewed by many as the most competent PM we had in 20th century. The view is that her political and economic ideology was born out of her humble beginnings that reinforced self reliance etc.... no such thing as society etc. But as an Oxford Chemistry graduate she sure as heck could add up. Tories have presided over more recessions than Labour and have borrowed more than Labour, though the argument against has been that they've spent far longer in power (true) and have also swept to power following a fairly calamitous economic scenario after a Labour government. My tuppence is that I'd trust the blues with the economy more than I'd trust the reds, especially given it's the unions that picks the head of the Labour party (remember David and Ed Miliband saga?).
  5. Probably need to be at least half numerate before getting to be any good at economics.... https://www.businessinsider.com/77-of-british-opposition-politicians-asked-this-basic-probability-question-got-it-wrong-2012-10?r=US&IR=T Just staggering.
  6. https://www.cityam.com/house-prices-jump-by-7000-in-just-four-weeks-as-buyers-face-highest-ever-price-tags/ As for SDLT coming to an end: “Housing market activity remains high in Scotland where there has been no extension to the land and buildings transaction tax holiday which has now come to an end, which suggests that the same could happen when the tax holidays start to come to an end in England and Wales from the end of June.”
  7. I think the retailers pay something like 3% to the CC company so while they are insuring certain goods purchased with the card they are also earning money at the point of sale.
  8. Ah just saw the video - yes flowing water. Looks dreadful. I take good quality to mean solid and low maintenance for the tax payer. Even then you end up in a situation where certain people are given housing paid for by others that have to pay for their own housing too. It acts ultimately as a subsidy to business (just as tax credits do) so they aren't required to pay a living wage.... the feedback loop is then that those needing to pay for everything themselves (single young person being sensible and not having kids) are competing against those who will work for less since they have their needs met..... anyway ranting days are behind me .
  9. They'll not be using the heating (probably all electric and a fortune to run) and have the windows all sealed. Properties need to breathe, even the airtight modern passivehaus status have forced air ventilation and mechanical heat recovery. My tuppence worth is that council housing should be function, safe and cheap to build and maintain. It should in absolutely no way whatsoever be 'better' than anyone paying income tax is able to afford. It should be a fall back worst case scenario option with no protected tenancies and assessed on need. When I was starting out I found it repulsive that someone adding no value to the word (arguably taking from it too) was able to live independently in a nicer house, in a nicer area than some mug like me was able to live in. Ultimately all that matters is that there are enough houses in the right places to bring affordability down. Something Thatcher got 100% right was that nobody looks after someone else's houses better than their own. You want to improve an area overall then give people that chance of ownership.
  10. It's a great witticism but I suspect she was referring more to the free market approach rather than nationalisation and union approach. Regardless of that I do know that people bought many houses under Thatcher (even the council house selloff supressed prices by selling them at a discount). It's as ever a complex set of circumstances and policies that got us here, and we didn't start on this path in 1997 for sure but in my mind there's nobody more responsible for the property issues we now face than Brown/Blair. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6608517/Tony-Blair-builds-35million-property-empire-children-homes-worth-12million.html
  11. It wasn't Thatcher, it was Labour. Change inflation measures to CPI and then give 'independence to the BoE to set rates, push like crazy (Blair) for EE expansion in the EU and no delay on anyone and everyone rocking up in UK to work (no issue with immigration but what pressure did this place on housing)? Deregulated the banks even further (125% mortgages, BTL etc). Pushed 18 year olds into private rentals (by jacking up 'university' student numbers). Then when the bubble finally bursts no end of support to put a stop on falls! Even to the extent of paying people's mortgages for them!
  12. Not joined up sadly. London Mayor candidate wants to build 50K council homes a year while they want to build only 300K over 10 years nationally....... I like their income tax more gradual bandings and anything that removes the utterly insane marginal rate of anyone earning £100K-£125K gets my vote. Utterly cretinous to have someone earning £110K on a higher marginal rate than someone earning £1m...... thanks Labour lol.
  13. I've been doing a fair bit of work on my place with lockdown and there are a genuine shortage of concrete products and some timber lines! House opposite went up for more than double what I paid for mine 3-4- years ago. SSTC in less than a week! You'd need a couple of GPs or well paid professionals on a big joint multiple to buy it. I just don't know where people get their money!
  14. I mooched in teh EA windows last night. 1 bed new build flat in the centre of town overlooking green was £1k/month! my mortgage on a three bed detached is only a little more on a repayment.
  15. I think you're confusing the Sarah vigil with changes to the law that haven't yet happened. Freedom of expression wasn't suppressed. People only got arrested when it turned violent. Again, give a vigil an exception and you'll get a lot of vigils. It's not for me to presume what The Police (is it a collective of thought) thought. They're not there to find people innocent or guilty, they're there to uphold the law. The vigil goers broke the law but were still allowed to crack on. What's that got to do with the new laws which would be better judged outside of exceptional circumstances like a pandemic.
  16. I'm with you. The number of people (females more than males I would say in my office) that rocked up with obvious colds or flu used to rile me. One of the worst things about being on a plane or a train is some unhealthy wheezing and coughing and sneezing away.
  17. Evidently not. From what I've read and understand it actually seems quite reasonable. It is in fact teh opposite of authoritarian since it extends the rule of law and is passed through a democratic process. I am well aware of the 'law' of unintended consequences. I think a quick Google of 'authoritarian might be useful at this point Authoritarianism is a form of government characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of a strong central power to preserve the political status quo, and reductions in the rule of law, separation of powers, and democratic voting. So this isn't a rejection of political plurality, it isn't maintain the political status quo, it doesn't reduce the rule of law, nor separation of powers (still has to clear HoC, HoL and Royal Assent) and does not limit democratic voting.
  18. This is a concern of mine too. At what point do we say everyone's been offered a jab so just get on with it? Flu kills plenty. HIV has an R number between 2 and 5. Small Pox has a much higher R number than Covid and spreads in the same way (respiratory droplets) but I don't' think there were lockdowns back in the day before this was eradicated (and while it would be sweet to eradicate all viruses it is unlikely to happen with Covid for a few reasons apparently). The view of the medical advisors was that the aim should be to get excess deaths back to a normal variance rather than 'zero-covid' since the latter isn't likely to happen. On the plus side this is a SARs virus (mild one compared to SARs 1 and MERs) and therefore I wonder if we're also giving the population some level of immunity to those much nastier strains?
  19. So how does it work? The police made it quite clear that the vigil was in breach of the current rules and arrested those refusing to comply. If you grant vigils an exception to the law you'll get a lot of vigils. So the intention was to arrest people breaching the peace (always is). The police actually allowed the protesters to break the law and did nothing until some of them kicked off. No imaginary line was crossed and the protest was not granted a permit under the existing law so I'm not really sure what the position here is.
  20. Agree on lock the door method but it would be possible to do it IF it was announced with enough lead time. I agree with your analogy. Radiotherapy will eventually kill the patient, or the cancer both slowly and nastily so no easy choices. Again, I am not a fan of lockdowns and some of the nonsense was just insane. 10 pm kick everyone out the pubs and into the streets to crack on with cheaper booze from the offy and play cricket in the middle of the road. Pure genius lol. It's easy to judge now but twelve months ago it was a panic. The government resisted all calls to place any restrictions and people were taking the opposite view that the govt was just inept or the EU was over reacting. Now we have a lot of data and experience in this and we should be able to tailor the responses accordingly. One area that the WHO deem critical is testing so I guess this is why they're getting school kids tested twice a week and trying to roll that out to all adults (unless i heard wrong). The cost is crazy for sure! Let us hope this is a one off and there's not another spike or mutation that makes it much more deadly and/or contagious.
  21. I think the checks and balances have been suspended for a period rather than removed. Subtle but different. The sunset clause does mean that it requires a vote to extend and as for the authoritarian state argument you can make that statement about any law or regulation enacted by parliament. There are enough rebel Tories (70 or so?) plus the opposition who have the job of just blocking everything to stop the existing government doing anything it likes.
  22. Lower deaths for now but they are rapidly rising and UK seems at last to be coming out of the woods. Another point about Brazil is it has a much younger population (average age around ten years lower than the UK so its population are on average much lower risk from dying! My point being lockdowns work at stopping the spread. Whether or not that's a good thing is a debate in itself.... Don't think for a minute I'm a fan of lockdowns and actually without any vaccine I'd be right where I was at day one. The best analogy would be this is coastal erosion. It's going to happen and you're going to lose land. If X will die from covid then X will die from covid. It's crap but that's where we are. However, given where we are on the journey and that we've had the economic and social costs of lockdowns AND there's a vaccine rollout that's pretty much the best in the world right now AND that we're coming out of lockdowns anyway I fail to see what the problem is? I'll be honest and say day 1 my view was let it burn through. We'll lose people but it'll be done and dusted within a year and those that remain will have a level of immunity such that it'll still be floating around but will be a background disease. Variants seem to have accelerated the burn lat Q4 despite some restrictions but once that worked its way through we might be looking at a society that has herd immunity without any restrictions very soon. I agree with you on the firebreak lockdown - that only works if you actually kill the virus off for good and stop it coming back in although it does seem to have worked well in NZ and Oz but let's see how they get on as they approach their winter.
  23. Is that almost what I am justifying? At any cost? These are your words pretending you know and understand my point of view. Wow, quarantine doesn't work? That is amazing. Cos, proven by science. Fact! Let's see the proof then. Without even touching a science report you can get your head around the fact that if people aren't mixing the virus can't spread and you adjust the level of lockdown to adjust the spread of the disease.
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