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Unmoderated

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  1. 10 minutes ago, longgone said:

    China is a corrupt chithole. That will happily disappear anyone speaking out about its regime.

    I doubt lower rates was for the benefit of the people.

    Surplus goods ? I don't think goods are the problem its logistics screwing up scheduled routes around the world.

    Take lenovo order a built laptop and it comes from china directly to you in 30 hrs once sent no supply problems for them.

    Merely pointing out that one major economy has lowered interest rates and the BTC price has fallen. To me what's interesting is the big double-top and a rough head and shoulders formation. These are very strong indicators of falls to come. Since my view is BTC has no fundamentals on which to trade it is all done on technical, therefore I predict a drop. 

    I don't think bitcoin will die any more than Corals or Betfair will.

    No issues with airfreight at the moment, it's sea freight but that seems to be abating. I see your point but if the Chinese domestic market is slowing they'll still want to sell their wears. 

  2. 5 minutes ago, longgone said:

    IR Rates going up.

     

    Crypto goes down.  The new highs will be higher than the lows but never the highs of before.

    @jiltedjen was right. 

    Well done 🤣 

    China just lowered rates? I guess though there's an anticipation of rates in the west rising but I don't think the inflation is anything more than transitory..... the reason for rates in China falling are weak domestic demand, so those surplus goods will find their way to the global market. 

  3. 17 hours ago, dannyf said:

    There seems to be a common theme in those who don’t see the benefits of bitcoin and missed out on it for years to add this “I might even buy some” comment in predictions of its imminent death.

    What benefits?

    It seems like you think I'm predicting its death? I'm saying on a technical basis it points to a decline now. If it breaks out of this then (gambling) I'd be inclined to take a gamble.

  4. 30 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    Between 2008 and 2018 rents fell in real terms in the UK. If you think about it, a compunding 5% increase, way ahead of inflation, would have caused an unsustainable rocketing of rents, and that's not what happened.

    What is missed there is people moving out of rented and into perm. I'm not saying all rentals have a 5% uplift and then they do they only apply to the existing tenant. If they move on the property is let back at market rates. 

    Regardless of rents falling in real terms they've increased in nominal terms, while my mortgage payments have fall in nominal and real terms. 

     

    39 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    Yup! I think that this is likely because of (a) general real-terms London slide, (b) newbuilds (esp. flats) always sell for lower (newbuild premium). Of course for those where the price has increased (outside of London), they've not got the full uplift as any uplift has to be paid back to the government (Equity Loan). So, yeah, gonna suck for them.

    RPI is f**king evil. Even the ONS wants to kill it off, but can't. So, yeah, gonna double suck for them.

    RPI is excellent! the issue is the BoE don't use it to measure inflation. If they had done so we'd likely not have had such high house prices. 

    Are you planning on buying a newbuild? This is not something I'd advise you to do. AS you rightly point out there's a newbuild premium that many don't realise since prices seem to rise quickly enough to cover off a loss but the newbuilds down the road here have remained flat for the past 5 years, give or take, while my old 1950s place has increased a reasonable amount... it's easy to add value to a place like this versus a newbuild and people do want space and a fireplace rather than a fancy bannister and a tandem pain in the **** driveway.  

  5. 54 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

    Those who bought using the Help to Buy scheme 5 yrs ago likely to bee in negative equity now (especially apartments in city centres).  But did get a nice tax payer subsidised deposit loan which they will now have to start paying interest on alongside their student loan which is going up as interest rate based on rpi and govt likely to lower salary threshold and extend term as they realise the scheme will make the country bankrupt if they don't.   

    According to this flats are up about 12% over last 5 years. Paying off 75% or whatever % they own over that time probably means they're almost certainly not in negative equity. 

    How exactly would the help to buy scheme bankrupt the country?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-equity-loan-scheme-data-to-30-june-2021/help-to-buy-equity-loan-scheme-data-to-30-june-2021

    The total owned on these is £21bn which is less than 1% of the value of the national debt and it is asset backed so wont be lost in its entirety. Even if it was... it's 1% of the total debt lol. It's also about a third of the addition covid funding given to the NHS in the financial year 2020/21.

  6. 56 minutes ago, Huggy said:

    Added my comments to the quote.

    All fair points of course but each year that's gone by you've probably made the same assessment right? 

    When I bought my place I was pretty anxious about what might happen (being on here didn't help!) post Brexit so gave it 12 months from that vote before committing. Even so I would think about all the negatives but it only really occurred to me to stop doing that and focus on the positives once I'd exchanged. My mortgage now is less than the rent I was paying on the small flat I lived in before and I dread to think what they're charging for it now. 

    We both agree the housing market is far from fair but I do think it's worth flexing those numbers over a 5 year period. If you're fortunate enough to have a great rental agreement in your 'bubble' as you say then that is a huge win and very valuable. 

  7. 21 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    No, rental contracts tend to have an inflation-linked increase, and only decouple from that in cases that an area becomes more desireable.

    None of the ones I've ever seen do.... but if yours do then even more reason to not rent if you expect inflation to jump up for a period. 

  8. 2 hours ago, Huggy said:

    Rents do not concern me as I am in my own little bubble with that, and I would respectfully suggest that the bolded bit above should read there has never been a worse time to buy. Maybe 2007 was higher in real terms, but this link and graph.

    https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ftb-average-house-price-to-earnings-ratio/

    average-uk-first-time-buyer-house-price-to-earnings-ratio-2.png

    The economy imploded at that last peak due to people not being able to afford to pay for their high house prices. We're now higher.

    I'm certainly not going to be making the biggest purchase I will ever make in my life at a time where prices literally have never been higher on many measures, or if they were then within months a financial catastrophe occured. I'm absolutely not doing that while pinning my hopes on inflation bailing me out.

    I might be on the wrong side of government and CB policy, I definitely have been for a few decades. If inflation does let rip then a lot of people are missing out on a very important lesson about debt. Me, I don't like debt so will avoid muddying my clean record.

    What's the point in a perfect credit history if you never borrow?

    Today is certainly not the worst time - it is not at all how my statement should be read. I'm not advocating you should expect inflation to bail you out but it seemed like your post earlier suggested you did expect inflation to be high (very high) for a period. If that's the case I'm just interested to understand why you wouldn't buy at such low interest rates when you expect inflation to be so high?

    If you can borrow at 1% and fix for 5 years and inflation is going to let rip then you're absolutely laughing!

    The statement of inflation will let rip and there's never been a worse time (bar one) to a buy a house is clearly in conflict with itself. 

    You're also looking at a narrow metric of housing that doesn't even really show affordability. If interest rates are 10% the total cost of buying a house with a mortgage is far higher. You chart there misses that fairly fundamental expense. What's the total repayable on a 25 year mortgage at each of the points on that chart?

    Cost of buying a house in cash is one thing but very few first time buyers do this. 

  9. 19 hours ago, Huggy said:

    Oh dear. What could they possibly do to control this? I think I might hold off buying a house for the moment, the indicators are all red, and some are actually sparking and smoking.

    What!?

    Inflation running at high single figures, you're able to borrow at almost 1% with a decent deposit and you want to hold off?

    For the last 4 years I was paying between 1.5 and 2% on my mortgage adn house prices were moving at maybe 2% a year (from 2017). Cue pandemic and they're up 10% and I've got a 5 year fix below 1%. Madness I agree but certainly not a reason to hold off. You can borrow nearly 400K at £1k a month. 

    What do you think will be happening to rents if inflation runs this hot for a time?

    I'm not saying there's never been a better time to buy but it certainly doesn't seem like a bad time if you can get a long and cheap fixed rate. 

    Work your numbers of 5 years. Rental contracts tend to have a 5% YoY increase. Flex the scenarios adn work out how bad things would need to be in the housing market for it not to make sense to buy now over the next 5 years. 

  10. 14 hours ago, Bob8 said:

    It sounds right.

    Brexit* and Covid-19 will be inflationary and undermine earning at the same time. I can see house prices becoming more unafforable for those reasons. But, I post on HPC and tend to be bearish.

    Will be interesting to see how earnings keep up. Certainly min and living wages have been given a boost recently by legislation and that was well above inflation IIRC. Perhaps TPTB are stoking the furnace with that.... who knows. 

  11. 5 minutes ago, bodgittandscarper said:

    I don't think you read the article properly.

     

    He asked his electricity network operator for a price to upgrade his connection. The connection from the road or pole. Nothing to do with his own wiring. They told him £14k. They are the only people who are able to do this. This figure is probably because he would need three phase, and the nearest three phase may be some distance away. In the sticks people are quoted figures as much as £40k for the same.

    The problem is, only three phase can easily supply the amounts of power being required. Usually it's found in farms and industrial estates- places that consume a lot of power for machinery in particular. If the government are serious about net zero, rolling out three phase power to every household goes hand in hand with upgrading the substations and main distribution lines. It's gonna need subsidies or, as you can clearly see from the article, it just won't happen!

     

    If there is enough juice in the road, then adding a second single phase supply is a cheaper option and I'm working on a job involving this currently. The trouble is, all these loads need to be balanced out across the grid. If phase 1 supplies the well to do part of town where everyone is buying Teslas and installing heat pumps, and phase 2 and 3 supply the council estates, you're very quickly going to end up with an imbalance.

     

    Renewing and balancing the grid for net zero is a mammoth task.

    This is interesting. I can see a substation from my driveway. I used to think it an eyesore but now it seems like a selling point :D

    I did know that from a new build on greenfield the cost of simply getting services connected from base to grid is eyewatering. I've even seen some builds go off grid because the cost of connection bought more than enough renewables, battery and back up. 

  12. 9 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

    I'll double check my figures but can immediately confirm that the electrician removed any old wiring not already ripped out by the builder.

    This is quite confusing.. my electrician is minted with fancy vans, permanent employees & has several properties.

    It does look on the face of it that some sparkys are gouging customers due to an excess of demand.

    Its not the long game..

    That's very kind of you. What region are you? S.E?

    The main contractor is a lovely guy and super responsive, excellent reputation, full breakdown and fixed fees. I'm thinking of leaving it another year and then seeing where I'm at money-wise. I could make this my forever home and I love the location but the house is a increasingly a state - I bought it knowing that and I'm happy with how thing shave gone so far.... new roads taking passing traffic away and extension redevelopment of the town so the immediate area keeps getting better despite the NIMBYs tr7ying to stop anything happening.

  13. 12 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

    We haven't got the charger itself, just the required circuit.  Nevertheless you should definitely ask for more quotes.  Maybe referred by another tradesman? The sparky will hesitate to damage your relationship with his decorator/plasterer/plumber mate by overcharging, and will do a good job to protect that source of future work.

    We did a foundation to ridge refurb spending £80k.  Only the heating engineer & addition of mains gas wasn't via a friend or another tradesman.

     

    On 05/01/2022 at 16:07, hotblack42 said:

    Mug told by conman that his electricity supply needs to be upgraded for the cost of a small extension.

    Our complete bungalow re-wire from the meter including cabling for a 7Kw car charger, Ethernet cabling to 3 room and out to the cabin, and all switches and sockets was £6,000.

    Extending power to the cabin and garage, each with their own 3 circuit consumer unit, was another £1250 in total.  Again, all brand new wires, sockets and switches.

    This man is either an idiot, or has a 6 bedroom mansion, stabling and garaging for a car collection.

    I'm getting quotes for a fairly big extension. Currently a 2/3 bed chalet bungalow becoming a 4 bed detached. The full wiring including power out to a detached garage but excluding a heat pump and car chargers is £10,272 plus VAT. I'm within 10 miles of Reading. TBH I need to get my overall quote down by a third otherwise the project is not affordable so I am hoping this is really top end right now. This is through a main contractor but even so, the normal 15% mark up is not enough to cover that. 

    Not sure if more expensive because all brand new but I'd have thought this is way easier to first fix a mostly new build than take stuff apart - the removal of all electrics is actually covered in a demolition section.

  14. 18 hours ago, markyh said:

    Man it is sweet effectively being mortgage free, just feels "different" , a lot more care free.  And the £1650 monthly payments have now been reallocated to buying our 2 x Tesla's monthly as treats. 

    Many wont appreciate but largish six figure mortgages do hang over your head even if you have a decent income, but now our income has increased with staking from the crypto interest and the mortgage is gone, so it's happy days. 

    Lost track this year for Xmas and have totalled £10k in credit card bills so far, and still waiting for 2 i know i used to come in. But fook it we had an amazing over the top Christmas and i can clear it all straight away, makes up for the 2020/21 Covid blues. 

    The dream. I consider myself lucky to have a low 6 fig salary... ironically really only got there due to housing market and needing it to buy something in a nice area. You're certainly living the dream. 

    Mate of mine was talking about staking... but where there is reward there must surely be some risk? I was trying to figure out what that is?

  15. 3 hours ago, markyh said:

    All on the bubbly bitcoin thread, but basically the investment plan from the original £2k in 2013 was to cash out 50% of any gainz when after paying CGT the net gain would clear the mortgage. As it happens I made some additional bigger bets in May (+£140k into Hex) and when I went on holiday in August just before I was at about £500k, when I got back from hols it was £800k. I couldn’t sell on hold as I was “staked” and didnt have remote access to my secure home PC. It did all peak about £1.3m late September then pulled back. I sold of £300k mid October (to roughly net £250k) and kept £700k invested, I still have it all. So only sold out 30% in the end to achieve a long term moving goal. My mortgage was only about £100k in 2013, then bought a bigger house with a new £312k mortgage in 2016. This is now £250k net and on a fix until 2023 so paying off 10% max allowed 2021 and 2022 and clear the balance in 2023 when the fix ends. Otherwise pay £15k in penalties. 

    Nice! Yeah makes sense, de-risk the mortgage clearing so at least you know whatever happens that's done. My redemption penalty is 5% and I owe close to £400K. 

  16. 19 hours ago, Locke said:

     

    So what do we reckon lads?

    Bitcoin

    15 Dec 2020: $19,400

    31 Dec 2021: $46,600

    140% return

    London Flats:

    Someone please calculate this

    https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/

    According to here the total gain in 2021 was 57.14% ($29,405 open and $46,208 close).

    5% deposit on a property that rises by 6.2% is certainly beating this (total return on equity).

  17. 18 hours ago, markyh said:

    Correct, wasn't looking to good based on the LR October 21 figures out in December, we will need to wait until February for the full 2021 vs 2020 figures. 

    London

    London shows, on average, house prices have risen by 1.9% since September 2021. An annual price rise of 6.2% takes the average property value to £516,285.

     

    Flat/maisonette £434,260         £415,993             4.4

     

     

    £415993 put in Bitcoin 15th December 2020, would have been 28.58 BTC @ $19400 (@ $1.33288) 

    On 31/12/21 that would be worth £985.575.59  (@ $1.35132 )   A return of £569582.   And you had the option to cash out in March , April or November for a lot lot more!! 

    Trading costs about £10 for the blockchain for buy and sell. 

    As they say in court, I rest my case. 

     

     

    17 hours ago, Locke said:

    Any way to get in early?

    To be entirely fair to @Unmoderated he did specify a property with a 5% deposit. I don't know what the London flat market has done, or what fees would be involved in such a scheme. Try selling the flat though LOL!

    Thanks @Locke that's kind of you. 

    I was really pointing out that the leveraged nature of property multiplies your gains. 

    A 5% deposit on a property that went up by 6.2% would represent a 124% return. Clearly one cannot borrow to leverage BitCoin in the same way. There's obviously transactional costs associated with buying and selling but against that there's the rental income, or the rental saved. Of course, the flat being your main residence would qualify for full CGT relief which can't be said for the Crypto but that's really the most desperate way of me trying to change the bet. I guess all this shows is how favourably property ownership is treated versus other (more or less productive) places to stick your cash

    No nit picking though - even in this scenario I think I lost the bet and while @markyh has done the opposite, one could equally take £300k out of their house and pop it into BitCoin. 

  18. 18 hours ago, markyh said:

    @Unmoderated ? I pretty sure i said at the time you can enter Bitcoin for £1 completely unleveraged, you cant buy £1 of a London flat, and very few could "invest" in a London flat unleveraged. 

    I will make a new Bet for 2022, PulseChain (a crypto) . Not released yet, most likely will go mainnet in Q1 2022, will start 2022 at launch @ £0.00.  I already have 28m+ allocated to me from the sacrifice stage months back.  I'm thinking a minimum of 500% from it's 1st registered trade price once launched. 

    Oh, and as predicted, in 2021, i became a paper ££ Millionaire and cashed out £300k to clear my mortgage. So now i have a £600k+ house and zero mortgage. How did cash savings do everyone? 1% ? 

     

    Hiya, yep I lost that bet didn't I! 

    I'll be honest, I do not have a clue about the rest of your post. Crypto is increasingly a second language that I don't speak but I feel like I should learn. I have a few quid I am happy to risk so where would you start? Probably easier to direct me to one of the other threads as this has no doubt been debated to death!

    Congratulations on clearing your mortgage though, a fantastic milestone. Interesting that you cashed out though? Of course I would have done it ages ago (not that I'd have bought in) but if you're certain of continued growth wouldn't it make more sense to borrow at 1% and get another 140% this year?

  19. 1 hour ago, Brendan110_0 said:

    Nuclear fusion yes. Imagine if it was given the funding Covid attracted! 

    Fusion will be several years before a commercially viable example is constructed. I love it but it's just not quite there. Thorium salt reactors showed great promise both in terms of safety and abundance of fuel stocks though. as i understand it the reason we have the types of reactors we do is a result of the weapons industry. 

    1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

    No mystery. In the 1970s the trade unions strong-armed employers into paying inflation beating wages.

    I do agree that unions were stronger back then. I've got several older friends from various clubs who tell me they even had it written in their contracts that they would get an inflation+x% raise (so ignore boomers when the flap on about how tough they had it when all they seem to moan about is interest rates being higher than usual for three months or so).

    However, I would say these are different times. I doubt we'll see inflation in the 20% or higher range now (could be wrong) but people these days are more versatile and will change companies and even roles far more readily than the last generation. It seems right now there's a shortage of good candidates across a lot of industries and this is also fuelling inflationary pressures. People are demanding higher wages and walking if they don't get them. Possibly the feedback loop is further advanced than we think?

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