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About reginekierkegaard

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  1. If they back the currencies with gold or silver and set a limit to issuance, ironically, this would be the Bitcoin’s killer. The only time they would do this is when it is already too late I.e. hyperinflation.
  2. Ether has only just returned to mid Apr price. Its’ 50 dma is far from touching the 200 dma. Bitcoin is another story. In term of market cap, ether and some other altcoins are increasing their market share perhaps at the expenses of Bitcoin. It is a bear market for Bitcoin but some altcoins are far from dead. Ethereum classic for example was trading at 13 dollars in April. It is worth 56 dollars today. The market moves in mysterious way. You never know what you are going to get.
  3. I missed the earlier post. What is the dca out strategy? I heard of dca in and Boglehead would say you only sell when you need to meet financial obligations or if you are rebalancing. Please enlighten me.
  4. Yes, more QE is needed to buy US treasury to push the rate down! Pedal to the Metal - to infinity and beyond! I
  5. MV = PQ To achieve a low inflation, you need either or a combination of the followings 1. A slow down on the ever expanding money supply 2. A slow down in the velocity of money 3. An increase quantity of good / services via increase productivity
  6. I read about this as well. They have their own inflation problem too. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation-could-be-the-world-s-problem
  7. America is slightly ahead of us in this economic cycle. When strong demand for labour meets with low supply and high inflation expectation, wages will rise. We could well enter into a classical wage price spiral.
  8. This is a very difficult market. Market can go either way. On one hand, the money supply would remain heightened in the short to medium term. The velocity of money is likely to pick up as the lockdown restriction ease. On the other hand, the pandemic is far from over (especially in certain parts of the world), the act of furlough and eviction ban cloud the true economy. Without these measures, the market should have fallen but the government decided to intervene in the free market and popped up the prices with huge deficit spending and money printing. I think we need to prepare to both possible options. In the event of another price hike, are you in a position to benefit from it. In the event of a price fall, are you able to service the mortgage and had no rush to sell. You only lose out if you sells when the price is down.
  9. Good chart. However, in the same chart that you show us. Corn was trading at 1.13 in the 60s and bottomed out at 1.16 in 1971. It then spike to over 3 dollars by 1975. It was trading at 7 dollar as of May 2021. Corn price had increased despite increase productivity via GM crops and increased mechanisation. This is a good example how fiat currency is depreciating rapidly.
  10. Sadly, I think what you said is happening now. There is this idea of a K shaped recovery. Growing inequality is going to be a problem.
  11. There is a theory on this. When the money supply increase without the corporation of the fiscal policy, inflation occurs more in certain assets such as stock, real estate etc. Essentially, when you redistribute the money to the most wealthy in the society, they could no longer spend on consumption. They use it to buy assets. When the increase in money supply couple with fiscal policy that deploy these cash to the less well off, they needed the money to consume. Many of the agricultural products are also beginning to rise in prices. Take a guess what you need to feed the chicken, to get the chicken breast. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/050721-global-grains-price-rally-coronavirus-china-weather-tariffs-trade
  12. https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/property-news/surrey-district-house-prices-increased-20699276 It has already picked up. Will it continue and how long this will continue? This is the question. If you can answer these question perfectly, you can 'time the market' perfectly. Inflation is not only confined to property. If you look at the Bloomberg commodities index, the prices for commodities are also picking up. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/commodities-jump-to-highest-since-2011-on-rebound-from-virus With the cost of base material at higher cost, the cost of construction of new houses also increase.
  13. The velocity of money did not pick up in Japan. That was the reason. For the price to pick up, in accordance to the Quantitative theory of money, you need a few ingredients. 1. Increase money supply 2. Increase velocity of money 3. Fixed / reduction in the quantitative of good/ service/ assets
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