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About reginekierkegaard

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  1. Yes, house price can fall in the short term but with our fiat currency and unlimited QE, it seems to be rising and rising in nominal terms over time. Cost of a Victorian house in victorian's time, £50. How much would £50 get you today? The fiat currency is a rigged game. It is a mean to steal value from the masses and re-distribute to the asset owning classes. People are buying house in a frenzy because they have little other choices to protect the value of their money. What else could they do? Cash - see it depreciates over time Stock and share - this is an option
  2. Hi Rachel I agree with you. It is an utter nightmare out there. I have been out looking for properties since Jan. There are times the vendor prefer a cash buyer. Most of the time, people managed to submit an offer before I do or outbid me. There are also time the vendor is keen to be able to look for another property before they would complete. Guess what, they face exactly the same issue we face.
  3. It goes to show why we are seeing a frenzy out there. Even if you pay 65k in 1996, if you are able to hold on to the property until now, you will make a profit. People brought at 2007 peak, if they hold their property until now, most would have made a recovery in most of the country. It is a rigged game. So long as we remain in this fiat currency which is backed by nothing and created out of thin air, there is nothing to stop the central bank and the commercial bank to create new money supply. While central banks and mortgage providers can 'print money', the developers can't create
  4. 5% mortgage is very worrying. It will increase not only the money supply but the velocity of money. There is too much liquidity in the market, they are simply looking for any assets that could help to beat the pending inflation where the interest rate are being artificially suppressed.
  5. Gold prices (in USD) is now dipping toward the 200 days moving average but the 50 days MA is nowhere near the 200 day MA yet. SPX and other global stock indexes continue to rally and there has always been a weak negative correlation between stock and gold. Money is not just moving to Bitcoin but it is also moving to REITs and Stock. S&P500 is at historical high. Tesla continues to rally while bonds, silver and gold are experiencing some retreat. USD is also softening. I know a number of people in here are great fan of Bitcoin and see its potential as the new, decentralised reserve of
  6. MonsieurCooperCrutch and Goldbug9999 Thank you for the advice.
  7. Confiscate it. The Gold Reserve Act 1934, you are hereby required to surrender all gold and gold certificate and transfer them to the sole title of the United States Department of the Treasury. Do not underestimate how far the government would go. They have done it before and they can do it again.
  8. Let look at the situation objectively. I am not in a position to determine what would happen with the housing market next. Factors that are popping the market up 1. Quantitative easing, it continues to drive the cost of borrowing down and increase the money supply and hoping to increase the velocity of money (it buys government bonds and they are being spent on the public sectors or investment) CAPM theory - Price = Money supply x velocity of money and then divided by Quantity of goods. 2. Stamp duty holiday, it effectively gives you a 3% discount for a house that costs
  9. Since we came off the gold standard, the fiat currency had only been depreciating in value in real term. While the interest rate is at rockbottom, it will struggle to keep up with inflation. Those who has access to capital, would of course, pursue other asset classes to 'hedge' against this ever depreciating asset class. There is more than one way to skin a cat. The truth is, a. Cash is likely to continue to depreciate in value in real term. b. Our wages, is also likely not be able to keep in pace with the inflationary pressure (Core inflation plus food and housing cost) in the medium/ l
  10. The mortgage rate is so low because of BOE hesitates to hike rate. Fed had been hiking rate but the Austrian school of economists, would suggest that they are not aggressive enough. QE and historically low interest rate, would only lead to one thing, Inflation. Inflation in goods, services and assets prices. The boom plants the seed for future destruction.
  11. In this case, if you are buying a house with a mortgage, you are effectively buying on Margin. You hope that the increase in prices would outpace the cost of borrowing. You make money on your 'margin'.
  12. Something is happening in the global housing market. Australian market had crashed. Hong Kong is seeing some sharp 'correction' and even US house market is softening. All the while, the S&P500, FTSE 100 are in correction territories. Emerging Market and Asia pacific stocks are now like a war zone with blood everywhere. There is a flight of capital to the US dollar. 10 year T bill now yield well above 3%. GBP is now reaching another low. With the uncertainty over the stability of UK currency, investors would think twice before investing. Most investors are more concern about protecting thei
  13. No, she has not. You were meant to get some well second hand skis from ebay (or better yet, buy some discounted new ski in summer at a big discount!) and head for Cairngorm / Glencoe to support the local skiing industry. I skied in Scotland in the past, I saved thousand of pounds but it was a bit of a gamble. There are days that was way too windy and time that we did not have enough snow but it is cheap.
  14. Landlord are providing certain values in some situations. There are always people who could only stay in the area for no more than 1 -2 years. If people are committed to buy a place and keep selling every 1 -2 years for their jobs, this will only create values for the taxman (stamp duty), estate agents, surveyors and solicitors. There are always some 'landlords' who owns one property in an area, where they cannot stay (due to their new job) and unable to sell or unwilling to sell due to high cost of transaction. They opted to rent their former home out and use that to offset the rent they pay
  15. We need to think about this the other way round. I don't think the house prices are overpriced. It is the salary that is underpriced. Years of quantitative easing is not driving the asset bubble as much as we thought, it is driving all our wages down. It looks expensive because we are all earning less.
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