Uchimata

I've noticed this one in East Belfast that has been on the market for the past few months, originally at 600k. Noticed last week it had dropped 5% to 570k. Could this be the market starting to soften, or was it priced too expensive to begin with? https://www.propertypal.com/17-ormiston-drive-belfast/933127 Maybe I'm too optimistic 🙂

Increase of over 20% from this time last year.

First Republic Bank could be next, its starting: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/10/european-markets-spooked-by-us-bank-shares-sell-off

The EA fees in California, for comparison, are on average 5%.

The US housing market is predicted to be heading into rough territory, with layoffs coming, single family home market shrinking and interest rate rises. Not sure if NI will remain immune, but I wouldn't lose hope yet!

During the last crash my terrace house in East Belfast I bought in 2006 for ~115k went down to ~70k at the bottom. At the height (a couple months before Lehman Bros.) a house 3 doors up from me sold for 250k (no joke), and the buyers (amateur investors) were ecstatic to have secured it. Today my house is valued 140k-160k. I've been trying to compare the sentiment of what I remember during the pre-2008 boom. Back then there were the investors from the republic, jobs starting to appear and the peace process. We knew of previous house crashes but we all thought "its going to be different this time", "this is the new normal". Today I'm hearing that remote work, immigration and inflation will back up these rises. History to me shows, to do the opposite of what the general sentiment is. What is the general sentiment though?

I have heard a few anecdotes that could explain this current house price madness in Belfast. Mainly people working remotely for London companies and living in Belfast. For example, 2 people renting a house @ 1.5k per month, they both are paid 80k+. Is fully remote really going to be the new normal?

I'm looking to move back to NI from California, these prices are giving me anxiety!

I discovered Dave Ramsey over here a year and a half ago, debt free and investing early (compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world) is the way to go. Some of his callers have very American specific issues like student loans, being cleaned out by the ex-wife and investing in real estate (it makes sense here due to federal tax breaks).... but his baby steps/focus on paying off debt could change your life.

Could it be said that people leaving Belfast would be younger with low net-worth but people returning from London would be older with a high net-worth and family? Would this feed into higher prices in the mid/upper market?

30 Year Fixed rate mortgages are ~2% at the moment, the Fed indicate they will be kept low for the next 5 years. With the money printing, not sure how this will all end...

I remember reading supermarket prices are up ~10%, it definitely feels like that. Petrol (Gas) prices have nearly doubled in the last year and used car prices have increased 10% due to supply drying up. It may be the "free money" stimulus checks having an affect or the money printing, but you do notice the increases, I'll not even start on the house prices...

The USA inflation rate hit 4.2% in April, money printing put an extra $3 Trillion into circulation last year. Some people are bracing for hyper-inflation. Are the UK/EU doing the same thing?

Here in the USA a common occurrence is people moving from California with a ton of cash to work remotely in Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Idaho etc. with many locals in those states experiencing insane property increases. My personal observation is Boise ID has doubled in price over the past 3 years (unfortunate as I wouldn't mind moving there myself). With regards the Belfast market, I know of several software engineers from back home with ~8 years experience working remotely for London companies and being paid 80k-90k, thats good money. IMO thats got to affect the local property market in the near future.

If it is done sympathetically taking our neighbours concerns into account, I don't see any problem converting a loft of garage into an airbnb. It seems enterprising to me and stimulates the economy with building work.

185k for 700sq ft, that ratio would buy a very nice place here in California.

I don't mean this to sound trenchant but what kind of investment vehicle would make someone less of a leech?

Hi, I did something similar around 10 years ago. The terrace house I was selling turned out to have a water saturated ground floor due to an undiscovered burst radiator, so I had to wait until that was fixed and dried out until I could sell. I did get it sold though, it was a stressful time, but this was due to the market being down and a lack of buyers. If you can cover both mortgages for 6 months you should be okay.

People moving back from other global locations can afford to buy these places without much concern. I've been working in the bay area for the past 5 years, though the weather and opportunities are great in California, I still want to come home at some point. An area like Ravenhill Park in Alameda county (not even the fanciest part) would cost ~$2 million. There are a lot of Chinese investors helping to inflate the market out here, I wonder if they are starting to consider Belfast now?

Royal Portrush is regularly rated in the top golf courses in the world, its 15th in this list (Royal County Down is 4th? https://www.top100golfcourses.com/top-100-golf-courses-of-the-world?page=2 It all depends on how Portrush presents itself this year but I think the future is looking good. Not sure about "300k for an apartment" good though...

I live in California now but I do remember for a couple of weeks a year Portstewart being as good as anywhere. World class golf courses will inflate property in most places, an example over here is Carmel-by-the-sea. Its quaint fair enough but if it wasn't beside Pebble Beach property would be a 1/4 of the price.