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House Price Crash Forum

HPC Pollster

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  1. This poll will close on Wednesday. Please contribute a vote if you haven't done so already. Many Thanks
  2. Does having the government/BOE in effect say, we are targeting the erosion of your purchasing power by 2% pa, still hold merit today?
  3. In south west England average house prices were £9,605 in Q3 of 1973. Today (Q4 2021) they stand at £294,845. Previous crashes in south west England (as shown in the graph): In Q2 of 1989 prices crashed from a high of £73,112 down to £53,880 in Q4 of 1993. A decline in nominal prices of £19,232 or 26.3%. In Q3 of 2007 house prices peaked at £204,447 before crashing to a low in Q3 of 2008 of £181,074. A fall in nominal prices of £23,373 or 11.4%. Arguably in the 07/08 crash house prices benefited from Q.E and a fall in the BOE Base Rate. Could you argue in this next crash that with already low base rates and the possibility of no Q.E that house prices this time around could really suffer? Could a correction from around £300,000 down to £225,000 happen in the next House Price Crash? Or are we likely to see a much more protracted and longer lasting correction (or no crash at all....) Source: Nationwide Building Society (prediction, noted in black, is my own)
  4. According to the Land Registry the Cotswold's is part of the south west of England region. Although it borders Stratford upon Avon which is within the West Midlands region. The House Price to Earnings Ratio in the South West of England region is 8.2. Meaning average property prices are 8.2X 'mean gross earnings'. The UK average by comparison is 6.6X. That highlights a difference today of 1.6 but the difference between the UK average and the south west of England regional average at the start of this data set was just 0.4. Cotswold Average Property Prices are up £90,896 since Covid-19 (source Land Registry)
  5. Fair game or unfair game? Is this just the mechanics of a 'free and fair market' with under supply but high demand? Should UK house builders be free to charge what ever they like? Could this price surge not infact be 'them' and instead its customers offering over asking? (is anyone going through the process of buying a new build that could explain how it works, if at all, with 'offers over' as the latest data from L.R only covers up to Oct '21? (not my thread, attribution to author)
  6. Those who correctly called today's rate rise! @Roman Roady @2buyornot2buy @SE10 @scottbeard @zugzwang @Flat Bear @Huggy @tep1 @winkie @Fromage Frais @GeneCernan @hotblack42 @mkil @hp72 @Lucky Larry @Sprrite @ASBEAR
  7. Fed chair Jerome Powell who’s spent months arguing that the pandemic surge in inflation was largely due to transitory forces, told Congress on Tuesday 30th Nov: that it’s “probably a good time to retire that word.” If YES, comment below by how much If NO, comment below as to why
  8. Yes you're right, I believe Nationwide makes up around 20% of the total mortgage market and Halifax, 8%. Yes sure; https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/browse?from=2020-06-01&location=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Funited-kingdom&to=2021-06-01&lang=en https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/resources/f/uk-data-series Im with you and we could show that 'range' like this: None, other than purely to compare the two data sets, see if there is any correlation and then whether we could say (and with what % accuracy) what the LR figure will be. Furthering that, using mortgage approval data to predict HP's in the same way as above would be very interesting too.
  9. How accurate is the Nationwide Building Soc HPI [which is more timely] versus the Land Registry HPI [a lagging indicator]? How accurately, if at all, can the Nationwide Data predict the LR data? For instance Nationwide will release their data for any given month at the end of that month or start of the next month, whereas Land Registry will release it 2 months after that said month. I think this is fairly common knowledge. Some differences though in both HPI's as they are complied and reported very differently. Nationwide only obtains data from its mortgage approvals, so doesn't include any cash [i.e non mortgaged] purchases, and not all approvals result in purchases. Cash purchases account for roughly 30-40% of all property transactions. Nationwide mortgage lending accounts for around 12,000 property transactions per month. Land Registry uses data from the registration of sale often just called sold prices. Accounts for around 100,000 transactions per month. Generally seen as more authoritative. More info on the indices can be found on the .gov site Monthly % change in house prices: Annual change in House Prices: Typically what is found is the annual % change data from Nationwide (shown in blue) is usually below that of the Land Registry (shown in red). So when Nationwide releases it HPI, more often than not, expect the L.R data to come in over that figure.
  10. Thanks to everyone who voted so far. Results currently are......'interesting'!
  11. The next General Election is scheduled for 5th May 2022. And yet, with a lot of political turmoil, many are suggesting an election could be held much earlier then that. When do you think the next election will be?
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