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House Price Crash Forum


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About ukmark62

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  1. Interesting chart showing a history of US stock market with over and under valuation analysis. Looks very much like there could be a very long way down. Market could still go up 10% or even more from here, but this research is not very encouraging for bulls imo. The market has not had a single digit P/E since 1982. If DB's theory is proven correct, this may also mean a dramatic fall in equities to get back to single digit P/Es. The market looks very stretched right now and possibly on its last legs - what was the old saying "bull markets die on good news" - maybe this tax break plan getting through is the last hurrah?? https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/12/01/crestmont-market-valuation-update?channel=ETF
  2. Thanks - and HPI will morph into HPD (House Price Deflation) for at least a decade??
  3. I don't know if this has been discussed, but if we start to see debt deflation take hold, why wouldn't the Central Banks engage in further rounds (yes more!!) of QE. "QE Forever" is a term that has been floating around for a few years now - I don't believe it solves anything - just makes the rich richer and builds up more debt - but do the Central Banks care??? I don't think they do. If they did begin yet more QE, you would have to think it would be the end of fiat currencies............
  4. Thanks for the reply! Wow - you're not pulling any punches!! I'm planning on relocating to the North East (County Durham or Northumberland) in the next 5-10 years and I'm budgeting on house prices there going up 50%!! (Plan for the worst etc .... just to be on the safe side). What you are describing is armageddon. I honestly believe that this SHOULD happen - but I have a nasty sneaking feeling that somehow the powers that be will desperately find a way to keep this going for a lot longer than I can imagine ( I don't know how but lies go a long way..............) I honestly believe the crash of '08-09 was largely engineered by the Fed and other corrupt institutions, so that they could justify this enormous debt binge that makes the already obscenely wealthy, exponentially wealthier!! Do you see any way that the deflationary collapse can be avoided? Imagining house price falls of such magnitude would make 95% of the population laugh - maybe that is why it will happen. Just to confirm that you think the worst will probably arrive in about 8-10 years? That would be your best estimate? Will make for very interesting times.
  5. Question for durhamborn - I have not looked through all 96 pages of this topic but what do you think will happen to house prices in the north of England if/when the deflation/reflation cycle kicks in?? Do you have any idea where house prices in the north would be 5 or 10 years after the cycle turns? I, for one, have been amazed at the level of HPI in the past 10 years in the south of England. All my common sense instincts tell me that this enormous global debt bubble must burst, but I thought it would have burst a few years ago. TIA
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