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House Price Crash Forum

Flat Bear

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Everything posted by Flat Bear

  1. Yes House prices are £125,000 & the IMF warn of a collapse in prices Four years later prices are £173,000 & IMF warn of a crash, and some people think because they never crashed four years previously they wont again You couldn't make it up (Trying to be serious) What it does mean is that there will be a much bigger correction, crash, fall in prices, levelling off downwards, drop in prices. House's wont cost so much to buy in the future.
  2. You are right It was very worrying then We are now in the biggest bubble of all time
  3. When propery prices come down to around the same as when purchased the CGT will no longer be an issue. Or more importantly when acknowledged they have.
  4. there is a larger proportion than you think who are "dabbling" with no idea of business, no idea of their own business, and who went into it because it was the "in" thing to do, thinking there was little work or knowledge needed. This woman is a prime example and there are a lot more out there. You must have come across these people you're an EA arent you?
  5. MarkG You'd better not tell him your Dr Who returning from 2012 he'll get depressed.
  6. Did prices go up in Stratford East 2004/5? and by quite a lot I can see. WOW. A proportion of early failures I believe will come from the well over leveraged, non professional BTL brigade. Many of this group will still be in denial when they get their properties and homes reprossed and bancrupcy proceeding started against them. I think there is a bigger proportion of these people than anyone imagines with most with just 2 or 3 properties but some will have several and these properties will hit the market at the same time. This factor could influence the speed and severity of this downturn and effect a much much larger proportion than in 89. Many people will be in negative equity for a very long time and this will effect them mentally. There will be multitudes of false dawns but eventually everyone will be too frightened to buy including myself and others on this site. All IMHO ofcourse Remember the "ladder", as you put it, changes into a "snake" during a downturn edit Stratford East not Stanstead sorry
  7. Yes but this witch doctory approach we see in the profession of it has to be "very special drugs" to make you better, or you have to be really qualified to understand about these things, need changing. The more thoughtful proportion of the populas know that real health has to be seen in more holistic way and the time a doctor can just give you a few tablets and tell you to "come back in 2 weeks" is over, or should be. And you are right, most companies run away from looking at medical uses for their equipment as they are frightened of legal address because they know the Medical industry have a huge vested interest and use difficult licencing procedures way beyond their benifits to society.
  8. I agree I have had the same situation with dentists. I dont think people really understand the actual difference in cost of private and NHS dental treatment to them and the overall cost. As a private patient you are the client you will pay approx double (that is about all) but you will get done what you require and you are in control of your health. As an NHS patient you are the still the patient but you will get what the dentist thinks best within NHS guide lines and in the dentists interest. I think the sooner we see deregulation in many areas of the NHS the better. There are many people who are more knowledgeable about their own medical problems than ever before and know when they are given a 2nd rate medical service. Why does it cost so much for scanners manufactured to NHS guidelines? (we need £1 million pounds) Has anyone looked carefully at the specs for these machines? they could be manufactured for a 10th the cost. Why do we see so much red tape and closed shop tendering? It is time the medical profession is scrutinised for efficiently and stop hidding behind the "we know best you wouldnt understand why it costs 5 times as much to put a roof on a NHS trust out patients building as any other" brigade. (The roof leaked for obvious poor design and workmanship, the excuses being "we cant just spend small amounts, its for the NHS and we want to be at the edge of new design and developement") and the really idiotic "Its peoples lives we are talking about money should be no object, you really must give us knowlegable medical doctors not just more money but reverence. You know mear mortals could not do these jobs as you need an extremely high IQ and be really arrogant so whatever you paid us would not be enough you lesser beings" Doctors are overpaid and we need a better quality entrant to the profession. Rant over. PS I have a number of GP friends who disagree (but they are also all really arrogant about their jobs) added; They also know they are Jacks of all trades, they are not that stupid, because they would look silly if they denied it.
  9. Yes I think you are right. My girlfreind is dithering at the moment on whether to sell a very recently inherited house or rent it out or live in it. My advice was that we have found ourselves in a reasonable "sucker rally" which should, with luck, last long enough to see a house sale through but this window of opportunity IMHO will not last very long. Once we are back into a downward spiral it will be sooo much more difficult to sell. (I'm only giving this bounce another 3 months at tops)
  10. It has been said many times on the site, but until there are enough "forced" sellers prices will only move down slowly. But with rising unemployment, decreasing btl profitability, rising mortgage defaults and a gradual squeezing of disposable incomes together with the traditional forced sale due to death things will speed up but I think it will still take 5 to 6 more years to hit bottom.
  11. Rich Home Owner Sought 10k - 20k [ 18 ] [8.53%] 20k - 40k [ 99 ] [46.92%] 40k - 60k [ 48 ] [22.75%] 60k - 100k [ 26 ] [12.32%] 100k plus [ 19 ] [9.00%] TTRTR [ 1 ] [0.47%] OK it seems that there are only a few people on this thread who personally have a problem with UK house prices, so I take it for many these discussions are purely academic or business (btl) orientated. It does seem that the 20k to 40k is a wide range of earnings, as at 20k you would struggle with a 100k mortgage (i know someone in exactly this position) but on 40k a 150k mortgage would be relatively easily managed.
  12. TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- A senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official said Wednesday that it's necessary to prevent disorderly rises in short-, medium- and long-term interest rates. I wonder why they are so worried? They will be putting artificial pressure on rises so that more pressure will build and ultimately this will mean quicker rate hikes later on will be neccessary. I wonder how long it will take and how high they can go? 5 years and 8%? I think the US government could see this coming as far back as last June
  13. Dont worry Mr Frog we will only raise the temperature very slowly the water will stay around freezing, well 10 degrees is still close and you wont even notice it. Stop worrying
  14. Yes, and they say a shortage of property is the fundemental reason property will still rise (supply and demand) There does seem to be a lot of vacant property around, they will all come onto the market when these percieved "financial benifits" turn into "financial liabilities" (capital gains in these properties "are seen" to fall) I wonder what the percentage of empty properties there are compared to say 1999?
  15. You are very lucky you live in sparsly populated area of the UK. Why do you think it neccessary for humans to grow in numbers in the UK or worldwide? Do you think it our destiny or duty to grow in numbers until even with our latest food manufacturing, engineering, and living in as densly populated state as possible until we consume at such a rate we destroy ourselves and much of the other species on this planet as to keep our population and economic growth going. Remember there are some totally idiotic types who think that recycling a few plastic bottles are going to save the planet but you take totally the opposite view thinking that unmanagable growth will be OK? Or are you saying you know this will destroy us and you are some kind of human Lemming? This world will not be able to continue as it is with current population but actively trying to increase numbers is suicide not just for us but even more so for the next generation and their's (if the world is still able to support them) I for one do not advocate a race to destroy this country or the planet.
  16. This is obviously not entirely true, but there is a sizable proportion of people currently renting who this is true for. As regards the mass immigration, does anybody think its a good idea to actively try and increase the population of the UK? I would like to see a population decline so that more people have more space and to see the creation of new wild life habitates for other species and larger expanses to improve our quality of life and to help deregulate our lives. This could be done unilaterally by simply stopping immigration and curbing the active promotion of having children. There really is more to life than "owning" as at the end of the day we are only able to "borrow" until we have no use for anything ever again. Growth for the sake of Growth is silly.
  17. Are you talking about Britain? OK you say unemployment as a percentage is going down and there are masses of high paid service sector jobs. How much has unemployment as a % gone down in the last year? Has anyone got some figures? (I must admit that NULab have been actually artificially putting unemployment figure up by taking people off benifit) but I am shocked that it is possible employment is rising I did not know this. I will try and find figures for 2005 1st quarter and 2006 1st quarter to see if I have been deluding myself. Also what is the real rate of wage growth? I think the official rate is less than 5% but everyone I know has got at least 10%. AND what is the real rate of inflation? does anyone think it could be less than 10%? WOW Did you know right up until the very last minute the Iraqi troops were driving back the Allied invasion? WOW Not alot of people know that
  18. There is truth in what you say but I wont be laughing, it will cause hardship for many including those that had nothing to do with the housing market. As the economy shrinks and people start to look more inward there will be an increase in violence, crime in general, higher suicide rates, and a generally more depressed angry populas, which will make life worse for all. Early indicators Government running out of money for essential services Extreme increase in prices for essential services/goods Shift to extreme political parties (probably right wing)
  19. This, i believe, is exactly how they see it, they are a business and why should they care. But remember when it is in their interest to put up rates and foreclose on properties they will do so and they will make sure the collatoral (equity value of property) does not dip into their proportion of the value, they are a business and why should they care if someone loses their home or investment.
  20. agreed Edited I think i would probably be the highest earner? but so what
  21. I understand where you are coming from I have been reading threads for 18 months before deciding to post approx 2 weeks ago and as you say there are some really irrelevant threads/posts Unlike many posters on here I believe the market will take its course and this downturn we are seeing will get worse and it will not only effect the property market. I could personally afford to buy now, so although I would rather use my money for other purposes (my business) i could purchase if neccessary. The group of people I feel concern for is those of say 24 to 35 who have saved up and are starting families. They are looking to purchase for long term security (as some of my employees) and they feel alienated. Why cant they afford a reasonable house? (I dont pay that low salaries) There is something obscene with property prices in England. Although I dont think Gordon Brown was directly responsible for HPI, I still think he has a lot to answer for
  22. Yes The truth is the banks have a % of exposure. They already know that property prices will take a tumble but it is still viable for them to take on these risks, because: the margins on their cost and sale money prices are high, and because they have these risks off set against an asset (housing) at a % "risk" Things could change very quickly, the most importantant factor being the banks ability to buy money cheap effecting their margin, the other factors of falling house prices and defaults would also be quite important. At the end of the day (or night) banks are the same as any other business, they are out to make money. Because they are usually large organisations they know the profitability but equally they will be vunerable and slow to manover in a downturn. Some might get burnt quite badly.
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