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Flat Bear

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Everything posted by Flat Bear

  1. Maybe the PCR (Perceived Conjured up Results) are not real as well? This sarcasm is getting very deep. I must go as I need to feed my pet unicorn.
  2. LOL Thing is many people might not see the sarcasm.
  3. The official number of people catching covid is around a million a month. This is probably around 50% of the actual number or even less. So within 3 years everyone will have caught it at least once. You never actually get to 100% but it should be very near. We have already had 18 months so another 18 months. Many people from now on will not notice if they do actually get it, they will have to go for a test to see if they have all the types of antibodies as distinct from the vaccine single antibody. We should get a surge over this winter which will speed things up, although the number of hospitalisation and deaths will be low they will seem higher as other seasonal illnesses, including influenza, come into play.
  4. Update on fuel price which has not risen as much as I had thought. Interesting to see how far out I was at the beginning of September. June 28th petrol 1.3 (1.299) Diesel 1.34 (1.339) August 17th petrol 1.33 (1.329) Diesel 1.38 (1.379) I was expecting prices in late August early September to be around the 1.50 mark but at the going rate it will be October/November before we see these prices? So fuel inflation less than 12% a year which is not going to change inflation as much as I first thought. I realized there was a glut of oil on the world market but believed it would not take long for this excess to be used up and OPEC to cut capacity to more sustainable lower levels.
  5. It has got worse☹️ Just paid usd$12,200 for a 20ft container. (1500% increase within 2 years was $800 in 2019) This must be the worst it can get? Shippers are now predicting this will go beyond the Lunar new year and they dont expect any improvement until late 2022 at the earliest.
  6. Hmmm I have not personally come across types of customers like yourself. Most of our new customers (who are builders and roofers) are very grateful we can supply what-ever the costs. Prices are going up up, up. Builders wages have to go up, up up. Many Builders seem reluctant to raise their rates significantly, why? I talk to many who try and justify why they have to charge more. “Put your prices up” it is as simple as that I tell them over and over again. Not by 10 or 20% but by the 100% you need to. Many tradesmen are still earning less than £200 a day, this simply is not enough, they know this but only slowly they are increasing prices. It is not as if they do not have enough work as many say they are turning away business all the time. Well, “Put your prices up.” The average house price has gone up over £30,000 in the last year! So they need to earn £30,000 a year extra if they want to buy an average house outright and £15,000 if they want to buy one with an extra £15,000 debt, which really is not a good option. So for these self employed builders a 50% increase in rates to around £300 a day is a must. I have noted that many are now working on around £300 a day and some a fair bit more. The trouble is many builders are very good builders but not so good as business people. Make it clear from the outset prices are very high, that there are long delays and shortages of materials and prices can not be fixed and can increase significantly. If you detect any hesitation don’t waste your time quoting (most tradesmen give FOC estimates) as you are just losing money. You will have more time to work on the jobs that pay reasonably and you can give a better service. For others the situation could very well be the reverse. For that small proportion of the workforce who could work at home as the job has a very high degree of autonomy then a decrease in renumeration should not be a problem. Employers would gain as they demand higher productivity as well as keeping wages supressed. It may not be possible to lower wages suddenly but there could be a period of stagnant wage growth until employers get these jobs “offshored.” If someone works from home it make no difference at all where they are on the planet. In fact, someone in the Philippines with a good internet connection would be in a better position to work from home than someone living in rural Hampshire with a poor internet connection, and would probably be 25% cheaper. I have used the Philippines as an example as I have just dealt with my bank (personal) through someone working from home in the Philippines. So this smaller section of the workforce will cause wage deflation where every other type of employment will see high inflation. Obvious I suppose really.
  7. Delta variant has wrecked hopes of herd immunity, warn scientists There is no way of stopping Covid spreading through the entire population, experts tell MPs as they call for end of mass testing BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR10 August 2021 • 5:30pm At last they realize.
  8. Has anyone else noticed the almost exact similarity of the waves of the Spanish flu and covid? Spanish flu timeline just over 2 years, 3 main waves, varied from countries/areas. Uncannily similar to covid. As we now know the Spanish flu was never eradicated but stays with us in lesser deadly forms. It is likely Covid will go the same way. If the pattern continues to conclusion the countries earliest affected and with the most infections (or possibly vaccinations instead of infections?) will be through the third and final third wave in early 2022. The mistake made was that some people believed the virus could be defeated or even contained, where the truth is the virus was always going to run its course to conclusion. The human race needs to understand there are so many things that we cannot control, and nature will take its course no matter what we try and do.
  9. From the telegraph Crispin Odey says Bank of England will 'never' raise rates Hedge fund manager says Bank's Covid borrowing leaves it too exposed to a rate hike, despite threat of inflation ByOliver Gill, CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT8 August 2021 • 6:02pm
  10. This is the situation. It is the only reason interest rates have not been raised, The government have become debt junkies and the BOE is the supplier. This state of affairs cannot go on for long, as the pressure from the markets, economists, ministers, commentators build. They do not know what to do. I do not know how they can get out of it. Does anyone have any ideas? Panic will build, expect arguments in the cabinet and at the BOE. It would be prudent for Sunak to distance himself now from Boris if he has any sense at all. We could see resignations ahead as the blame game starts. It will probably take a new management to be able to make the very hard decisions necessary as the current management has too much emotional vested interest. Sunak must surely make a move very soon?
  11. No wonder Andrew Bailey is upset.docx Exactly as many of us are saying. I have attached as a word doc. for those that have not got a telegraph subscription. I have deleted the nice pictures of Germany circa 1923 "no chance of a Weimar-style hyperinflation" is just tempting fate though.
  12. Just to add Farr's law obviously applies to the averages.
  13. You have a point and this is what they would like to do I think. It would be very convenient. It can not happen in reality as real world events and global financial issues will prevent it. This will not prevent them trying. BUT, I think you are correct and they (central banks mainly) will try to do this for as long as possible. I do not think interest rates will or can get lower without currency and structural problems in the financial markets so there is (or should be) total panic with the policy makers. The situation is dire. They can not afford to raise the cost of borrowing to the government(s) as the amounts are so large even a small increase in rates would have massive affects on the economy. Before they can consider rate cuts they need to at least start to unwind (tapering is not good enough) QE, to at least see if it will be ever possible at all. If they can not do this then the world economy as we know it will end. Who would have thought it? QE was a very bad idea all along! The end result will be even greater suppression of inflation data, a lot more retoric from the BOE telling us how vigilant they are, re-affirming how temporary any inflation is likely to be, changing what temporary means ("we consider 4 or 5 years temporary") and keeping rates as low as possible for as long as poosible. There will be enormous external pressures to raise rates but they will ignore this until forced. Make no mistake, the BOE are more political now than ever and are in affect fully controled by the government. I do not think they are concerned about mortgage interest rates, or even house prices, but this is a side effect of cheap money.
  14. But 2 years is so short term? But all of these things in my view will result in inflation for 1+ years (I thought maybe 1-2 years but could be a bit longer). We both agree we will have high inflation over the next 1-2 years maybe a bit longer. Maybe in the medium term say 10 years to 20 years? And again for the long term say 50 years to 100 years? Maybe a little longer? We will have to pass it down the generations to discuss who was right/wrong etc. It is possible they may not be interested!! Did you hear about the hyper-inflation in the Weimer republic in Germany? It started to kick off in 1921 but luckily it was very temporary and the German government could see through it and realized it was only transient. They decided to QE which seemed to solve the problem as it got quite bad by 1923 and some of the more political types tried to make an issue of it. But within just over a decade after that everything was hunky dory and Germany was ready to take on the world. I seem to be going through a very sarcastic phase at the moment, sorry😬
  15. This thread is getting very weird 🤪 Well, it finally looks like we are hitting herd immunity with around 30,000 daily cases and 50 ish daily deaths averaging over the next 4 or 5 months as everything gets fully back to normal. Czechia have got to the same position only the hard way with around 200 or so daily cases and around 2 daily deaths likely averaging over the next 4 or 5 months. Czechia pop. 10.6m with around 4million at least partially vaccinated but with a very high proportion estimated to have had covid which gives the best protection of all. There will likely be a 2 tier or multiple tiers ending of the epidemic with the UK being one of the first out especially if we open up fully and allow people and especially the younger population to catch this thing so we can get it over with. It is the countries such as Australia who have locked themselves away and have still not got much of the population vaccinated who will suffer for some time to come both from the virus directly and from the many economic and social reasons. Did they think if they locked themselves away this virus would somehow disappear? It is very difficult to understand the logic behind their decisions.
  16. Yes but his neighbours are hard of hearing so shouldn't really effect them. Best not tell them about the neighbour the other side of them who is a bomb disposal technician who likes to take his work home with him. Normally there is very little noise but very, very occasionally there is a very loud bang.
  17. How do you stop the migrants crossing the channel Tell them of all the fantastic opportunities in Scotland where they will be forced to live, and give them a leaflet from the SNP who will be their new leaders. That should do the trick.
  18. He says they are just very snobby types. He is a panel beater and works nights and he thinks it is because he has a working-class occupation they complained. If he was an accountant, would they have complained?
  19. It is not as simple as that. You have to consider the neighbours. My mate insisted on working from home and his employer reluctantly finally agreed, but his neighbours found out and complained to his employer, so you got to be careful.
  20. I disagree with everything you say apart from the fact Brexit (leaving the EU) was the best thing this country has done in my lifetime. We still have not got a proper seperation which is causing major problems. Imagine what it would have been like if we had not left at all😵.............. Best not to think about it as it could give us both nightmares for weeks. I suppose a million years is just a very temporary period in context of the Universe.
  21. How much influence did stamp duty holiday actually have? It is still a little too early to say for sure. I am beginning to think it has had a much bigger influence than I first thought. Similar to the end of the MIRAS scheme where "buy now before it is too late" psychology played a big part. It is thought that after the deadline the start of the fall in house prices began because of this reason alone. Fear of "missing the boat" has always been a major boost factor.
  22. I would really like to know why you think we will have a short period of relitively low inflation and then possibly deflation? I honestly can not see anything but high inflation for at least the mid term 3 to 4 years. I really would like to know your reasoning.
  23. Maybe people are looking at this in the wrong way. Banks can borrow money extremely cheaply thanks to Q.E. and can therefore lend at a very low rate. This is likely to continue until the end of the year. As long as the risk is extremely low and minimal the banks cannot lose. Banks are making record profits at this time especially the US banking giants. The mortgagor with a very hefty deposit are the ones taking all the risk as if asset prices (property) does fall it will be their proportion of the value of the property that will be lost, the banks lose absolutely nothing unless nominal property prices crash over 60%, and even then they are liable for a very small proportion which even in the most bearish scenario is extremely unlikely to occur especially with the spectre of looming high inflation. So even if you can fix at a rate of say 0.7% on a 40% loan to value you are taking on a massive gamble. It could be better to take on the same loan with a 90% loan to value at say 5% as you could just walk away losing just your 10% deposit. So, when mortgage rates rise next year, it is not necessarily a good thing to have a very cheap mortgage on a very expensive depreciating asset. Just a thought for those property investors.
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